cardinalland Posted Thursday at 11:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:58 PM I had some free time today and decided to correlate Atlantic ACE with temperatures around the world for the month of May (which, over oceans, roughly correspond with sea surface temperatures.) One can see a strong positive influence from sea surface temperatures across the Tropical Atlantic, as well as the East Atlantic, Labrador Sea (hmm) and tropical West Pacific/Maritime Continent. Now there's definitely a lot of noise in here, but I found it helpful for my analysis. I also produced temperature correlation coefficients for number of TS/H/MH (didn't differ too much from this) and precipitation correlation coefficients (pretty much just noise, no trend.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 12:07 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:07 AM ^Clear Atlantic tripole there. I found that this is the Apr-May SLP anomaly of our most active seasons since 1995 minus least active seasons since 1995 So far we have somewhat of an opposite pattern 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 05:57 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:57 AM 5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: ^Clear Atlantic tripole there. I found that this is the Apr-May SLP anomaly of our most active seasons since 1995 minus least active seasons since 1995 So far we have somewhat of an opposite pattern LMAO no it’s gonna be active 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 06:52 AM Share Posted Friday at 06:52 AM Maybe active, but that data says not hyperactive. In the far east Atlantic there is somewhat of a -NAO tripole.. Maybe enhancing Cape Verde area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 04:45 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:45 PM Seasonal Forecast or Verification Type Issue Date Description Atlantic Hurricanes 2025 23rd MAy 2025 Pre-Season Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2025 UCL (TSR)'s reforecast is out: 16-8-4/146 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted Sunday at 06:36 PM Share Posted Sunday at 06:36 PM Thread explaining why I think chances for tropical development in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ramp up significantly around Jun 4-10. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1926690131181731976 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted yesterday at 02:30 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:30 AM 7 hours ago, jconsor said: Thread explaining why I think chances for tropical development in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ramp up significantly around Jun 4-10. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1926690131181731976 Totally agree. Hadn’t watched the Atlantic wave but a well timed CCKW and MJO should open our window in the first week or two of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted yesterday at 02:53 AM Share Posted yesterday at 02:53 AM 8 hours ago, jconsor said: Thread explaining why I think chances for tropical development in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ramp up significantly around Jun 4-10. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1926690131181731976 25 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Totally agree. Hadn’t watched the Atlantic wave but a well timed CCKW and MJO should open our window in the first week or two of June. Today’s Euro Weeklies have re-upped the chances of TCG to close to where they were 4-6 runs ago for 6/9-15 in the W part of the basin, a pretty decent/moderate/above climo chances signal. To his credit if this were to occur, JB has been predicting this since late April although he does often predict early TCG: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC US Geological Survice Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago I believe the 18Z GFS has fired a first shot over the bow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC US Geological Survice Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago May need to zoom in but here's the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted 11 hours ago Share Posted 11 hours ago In my view, it's mportant not to lump all La Ninas together. Modoki (central Pacific-based) La Ninas are notably different from traditional (East Pacific-based) Ninas. This has big implications for the level of Atlantic TC activity and where in the basin it tends to be focused. This year is more likely to end up a Modoki La Nina, with cooler water relative to normal focused in the central Pacific:https://x.com/yconsor/status/1927306239920283821 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC US Geological Survice Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago 00Z (eastern Gulf) and 06Z (western Gulf) also have development between the Yucatan and Cuba, June 6-10. Euro has a weaker storm in the western Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago There’s a modest ensemble consensus for a window opening. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Ho Posted 6 minutes ago Share Posted 6 minutes ago almost time to ring the bell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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