cardinalland Posted Thursday at 11:58 PM Share Posted Thursday at 11:58 PM I had some free time today and decided to correlate Atlantic ACE with temperatures around the world for the month of May (which, over oceans, roughly correspond with sea surface temperatures.) One can see a strong positive influence from sea surface temperatures across the Tropical Atlantic, as well as the East Atlantic, Labrador Sea (hmm) and tropical West Pacific/Maritime Continent. Now there's definitely a lot of noise in here, but I found it helpful for my analysis. I also produced temperature correlation coefficients for number of TS/H/MH (didn't differ too much from this) and precipitation correlation coefficients (pretty much just noise, no trend.) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 12:07 AM Share Posted Friday at 12:07 AM ^Clear Atlantic tripole there. I found that this is the Apr-May SLP anomaly of our most active seasons since 1995 minus least active seasons since 1995 So far we have somewhat of an opposite pattern 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 05:57 AM Author Share Posted Friday at 05:57 AM 5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: ^Clear Atlantic tripole there. I found that this is the Apr-May SLP anomaly of our most active seasons since 1995 minus least active seasons since 1995 So far we have somewhat of an opposite pattern LMAO no it’s gonna be active 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Friday at 06:52 AM Share Posted Friday at 06:52 AM Maybe active, but that data says not hyperactive. In the far east Atlantic there is somewhat of a -NAO tripole.. Maybe enhancing Cape Verde area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BarryStantonGBP Posted Friday at 04:45 PM Author Share Posted Friday at 04:45 PM Seasonal Forecast or Verification Type Issue Date Description Atlantic Hurricanes 2025 23rd MAy 2025 Pre-Season Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2025 UCL (TSR)'s reforecast is out: 16-8-4/146 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Thread explaining why I think chances for tropical development in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ramp up significantly around Jun 4-10. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1926690131181731976 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 12 minutes ago Share Posted 12 minutes ago 7 hours ago, jconsor said: Thread explaining why I think chances for tropical development in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico ramp up significantly around Jun 4-10. https://x.com/yconsor/status/1926690131181731976 Totally agree. Hadn’t watched the Atlantic wave but a well timed CCKW and MJO should open our window in the first week or two of June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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