2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[cardinalland]

I had some free time today and decided to correlate Atlantic ACE with temperatures around the world for the month of May (which, over oceans, roughly correspond with sea surface temperatures.) One can see a strong positive influence from sea surface temperatures across the Tropical Atlantic, as well as the East Atlantic, Labrador Sea (hmm) and tropical West Pacific/Maritime Continent. Now there's definitely a lot of noise in here, but I found it helpful for my analysis. I also produced temperature correlation coefficients for number of TS/H/MH (didn't differ too much from this) and precipitation correlation coefficients (pretty much just noise, no trend.)

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^Clear Atlantic tripole there.  I found that this is the Apr-May SLP anomaly of our most active seasons since 1995 minus least active seasons since 1995

So far we have somewhat of an opposite pattern

[BarryStantonGBP]

5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Clear Atlantic tripole there.  I found that this is the Apr-May SLP anomaly of our most active seasons since 1995 minus least active seasons since 1995

So far we have somewhat of an opposite pattern

LMAO no 

it’s gonna be active

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Maybe active, but that data says not hyperactive. In the far east Atlantic there is somewhat of a -NAO tripole.. Maybe enhancing Cape Verde area. 

[BarryStantonGBP]

Seasonal Forecast or Verification Type	Issue Date	Description
Atlantic Hurricanes 2025	23rd MAy 2025	Pre-Season Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2025

UCL (TSR)'s reforecast is out: 16-8-4/146