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May 16 - June 4, 2024 Severe Weather


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That isolated supercell east of Wichita Falls that's crossing into OK now is really taking off. I think that's the strong cell the HRRR has trekking through southern OK for the next few hours. 

Screenshot_20240525-195008.png

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Not a whole lot has happened with tornadoes/longer lasting tornadoes. There still could be a lot of tornado warnings to track. There was a confirmed tornado 6 miles north of Chester, Oklahoma. I believe there was a brief tornado(es) by Cross Plains, Texas a while back.

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25 minutes ago, Chinook said:

Not a whole lot has happened with tornadoes/longer lasting tornadoes. There still could be a lot of tornado warnings to track. There was a confirmed tornado 6 miles north of Chester, Oklahoma. I believe there was a brief tornado(es) by Cross Plains, Texas a while back.

Yep, awefully quiet so far. We've seen some events kick off relatively late this year so we'll see if things pick up soon. 

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A dud for central Oklahoma, thankfully. I think early storm initiation and all of the left moving cells leading to clustering really tempered the event across KS/OK. North Texas had a few notable tornadoes and what about that discrete cell by Ardmore? I called the chase off an hour ago, a whole lot of nothing. 

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8 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

This is such a bust wow

Not sure I’d say total bust, but the CAMs were clueless with the early arc of storms across SW Oklahoma. The lack of capping was detrimental here.

I do find it interesting how Nadocast did fairly well and the analogs were mostly garbage too. (They generally favored Kansas for the biggest tornado threat)

One of the stranger evolutions I can recall for a potential higher end day. 

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3 minutes ago, nvck said:

any idea why this cell, among others, are dying as soon as they get into the OKC area?

Overturned environment. Big blob of meager low level lapse rates. 
IMG-9249.jpg

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Mean looking storm in Montague county rn

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
952 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

TXC337-260330-
/O.CON.KFWD.TO.W.0048.000000T0000Z-240526T0330Z/
Montague TX-
952 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN MONTAGUE COUNTY...

At 952 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 9 miles northeast of Sunset, or 12 miles east of Bowie,
moving east at 40 mph. Forestburg is in the path of this tornado.

HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Forestburg.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Tornadoes are extremely difficult to see and confirm at night. Do not
wait to see or hear the tornado. TAKE COVER NOW!

&&

LAT...LON 3345 9772 3354 9776 3363 9749 3344 9749
TIME...MOT...LOC 0252Z 274DEG 34KT 3351 9763

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Prater
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The possible tornado has moved SE of Forestburg. I think the velocity and correlation coefficient indicate it's a tornado. Unfortunately it is a bit far out from Fort Worth's radar and I have no other info from storm chasers and such.

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It was confirmed tornado warning at 10:48 (11:48Eastern). It's possible that a tornado tracked 35-37 miles but I don't know for sure.

Quote


At 1048 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Ray Roberts
Park Johnson Branch, or near Sanger, moving east at 35 mph.

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado.

 

possible tornado forestburg3.jpg

possible tornado forestburg4.jpg

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  • Quincy changed the title to May 16 - June 4, 2024 Severe Weather

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