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May 16 - June 4, 2024 Severe Weather


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26 minutes ago, Chinook said:

possible large tornado near Silverton TX

695779132_silvertontexas.thumb.jpg.6d8295a35c8c90ab2d9fd2ec78d21daf.jpg

winds up to 97mph in Nebraska

716948995_97mphwind.jpg.acaff1106108c233177df9f1c72051d0.jpg

Reed was all over it. Big stovepipe but he blew his car up and the chase is over but the cell is still going strong. 

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SPC seems fairly bullish on yet another round of strong/severe t'storms for DFW during peak heating today.

It's definitely plausible with the outflow boundary from today's activity in the vicinity, negligble capping and possibly another MCV from the storms in KS passing by, although the CAMs are still completely clueless with handling this potential right now.

If they do in fact develop, today could arguably feature more intense storms with a more pristine EML.

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For DFW this afternoon, will have to closely watch that Outflow Boundary pushing towards the Red River.

There's still some residual capping, but it's eroding rapidly with the low clouds having scattered out and strong heating underway.

Also, seeing some very impressive low level convergence as it will run up against a modest 20-25kt LLJ.

It can go a number of ways, either new storms develop or the currently elevated line becomes surface-based and reintensify.

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Watching the pronounced outflow boundary in far Northwest Texas. It’s slowing down and resides in an environment characterized by 4000+ J/kg MLCAPE, 30+ kt bulk shear and enhanced surface vorticity. Low level CAPE is currently modest, but should improve through the afternoon.

CAMs struggled with evolution of early day convection across Oklahoma, but taking a consensus and adjusting for current obs, suggests convective initiation will be possible by 22-00z, somewhere around the Northwest Texas vicinity. (Possibly far southwestern Oklahoma or maybe the southeastern Texas panhandle)

Today could end up being another mesoscale day like yesterday. 

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It's mid-afternoon, there's a MCS diving SE from Oklahoma into huge CAPE (4000-6000 J/kg), mid-upper 70's dew points, adequate bulk shear (35-40 knots), 100-200 m2/s2 helicity, and yet it's not severe. What's holding it back?

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6 minutes ago, Powerball said:

The cell just NE of Royse City has gone severe.

The velocity on radar shows some pretty strong downburst winds with it.

Looks to have a couplet now. 

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3 hours ago, cstrunk said:

It's mid-afternoon, there's a MCS diving SE from Oklahoma into huge CAPE (4000-6000 J/kg), mid-upper 70's dew points, adequate bulk shear (35-40 knots), 100-200 m2/s2 helicity, and yet it's not severe. What's holding it back?

looks like it went back to being severe warned

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1 hour ago, canderson said:

Parents have given up. They’ve had 9 severe t-storm warnings (and 2 tor warnings) in 6 consecutive days. And more than 8” rain. 

Yeah it's been quite the stretch here. Don't think we're done yet either.

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Today was a mesoscale dud up here for a change. Day 3 doesn’t even have a MRGL risk. Would be the first time since early April, I believe. 

Tomorrow doesn’t look too exciting, although some models show a low forming over SW Oklahoma, which would place a pseudo triple point near OKC. I’m more concerned about overnight hailers tonight…

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A complex mesoscale environment is evident over Oklahoma this afternoon. An area of low pressure exists near the Red River in southwestern Oklahoma with another weak low possible over northwestern Oklahoma. 

20z subjective surface analysis:

IMG-9922.jpg

A diffuse, remnant outflow boundary/effective warm front is draped from west-central to south-central Oklahoma. SW of this boundary, dew points are in the mid-70s. To the NE, cloud cover has limited daytime heating over OKC metro, but clouds are eroding and temperatures are warming. 

There is some residual convective inhibition across central and eastern Oklahoma. CINH is minimal in western Oklahoma, where storms could initiate as early as 22-23z. 

Storm mode and coverage are major question marks, but there may be a narrow window for semi-discrete supercells, between 23-01z. 

The range of outcomes is fairly high given lower than usual confidence with a short term forecast. I could see storms blob into an MCS fairly quickly, or you could see isolated, transient supercells for a few hours. Instability is large (MLCAPE >3000 J/kg), but deep layer shear is on the marginal side, around 25-30 knots. 

We’ll see what happens. 

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10 hours ago, cstrunk said:

Another MCS moving through NE Texas.

Another one likely later tonight/tomorrow morning.

As mentioned, deep layer shear is relatively underwhelming, but otherwise the setup is looking remarkably similar to last Tuesday morning (just a bit further NE).

If the looming MCS can establish a cold pool, it could get hairy.

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Lots of flooding around here in Moore and the south side of OKC. Storms grew upscale almost instantly. A few cells tried to go up before 00z, but there was a stable layer in the lowest 2km. Wind profiles weren’t the best either. 
IMG-9973.jpg

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2 hours ago, Powerball said:

The MCS is outflow dominant, which is a good thing.

But it has reached here and those winds mean businesss. Easily getting 50 MPH gusts.

Spoke too sonn.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the NE half of the Metroplex with 65 MPH winds.

We're getting hit pretty good here  now.

Vivid lightning, but oddly enough, not much thunder.

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