Akeem the African Dream Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 13 hours ago, Akeem the African Dream said: my “bust “ call is looking good nailed it again 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 1 hour ago, Tezeta said: Cmon dude this wasn’t like 4/27/11 so no need to enter that into the conversation. the qlcs regime overperformed in Missouri and Iowa and the barnsdell cell obviously went ham. But the main high risk had problems performing all day. A moderate woulda been fine. Right. We can bring up edge/extreme cases as a comparison until we're blue in the face if it just to be pedantic. But while anything is possible, as of now I'm not seeing evidence to suggest we're going to have 13+ more confirmed reports of tornadoes incoming. And that's a good thing IMO. Regardless, it was still quite the active day to top off what's been a fairly acfive season for much of the Plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 7 minutes ago, Powerball said: Right. We can bring up edge/extreme cases as a comparison until we're blue in the face if it just to be pedantic. But while anything is possible, as of now I'm not seeing evidence to suggest we're going to have 13+ more confirmed reports of torrnadoes forthcoming. And that's a good thing IMO. Regardless, it was still quite the active day to top off what's been a fairly acfive season for much of the Plains. Still immature and premature at this point to be screaming bust. It’s very possible the survey teams find additional tornado paths. At this point it makes no sense why some are still screaming bust when a town was destroyed with known fatalities. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 12 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: Still immature and premature at this point to be screaming bust. It’s very possible the survey teams find additional tornado paths. At this point it makes no sense why some are still screaming bust when a town was destroyed with known fatalities. Forecast verification isn’t based upon a single bad tornado happening to hit a town. We had supposedly the top parameter space anyone has seen. Forecast was for multiple violent long track tornadoes. We had 5 supercells nicely spaced who all failed to consistently produce tornadoes throughout the afternoon. Even at night the LLJ and additional forcing didn’t lead to better tornadogenesis conditions, despite the crazy OUN sounding. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Just going to point out that 9 times out of 10 when you see an MRMS rotation track map like this, you'd be wondering "was that a high risk" or something like that. I believe the processes that happened to cause N/W OK and S KS to underperform occurred on timescales shorter than outlook forecasts are meant to cover. To put it in simpler terms, the high risk was warranted, but it was death by a thousand paper cuts storm morphology wise. That Hennessey OK storm would've dropped an absolutely monstrous tornado had it not been seeded by the storm in behind, resulting in too much precip in the RFD. Other storms looked reasonable early and at one point we had a string of 4-5 discrete/semi-discrete supercells -> i.e. the incipient states of a tornado outbreak, but it seems they took just ever so slightly (perhaps less than an hour) too long to reach the really high theta-e air that was closer to I-40 and, say, US 281. Also the storms that formed in SW OK later were dealing with veered winds near the Pacific cold front and probably were having difficulty not being undercut by the same front. Had they propagated slightly off the front -> yikes. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 FWIW... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 On 5/6/2024 at 3:49 PM, Akeem the African Dream said: thin linear line of storms in Kansas isn’t going to verify high risk bump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Barnsdall rated EF4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 2 minutes ago, andyhb said: Barnsdall rated EF4. i was a little concerned that all they would find is ef3 DI's. glad that this will be "properly" rated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Just now, Tezeta said: i was a little concerned that all they would find is ef3 DI's. glad that this will be "properly" rated. I think the extent of the tree damage probably pushed them over the threshold for EF4. That stuff was high end, especially just NE of town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted May 7 Share Posted May 7 45 minutes ago, andyhb said: I think the extent of the tree damage probably pushed them over the threshold for EF4. That stuff was high end, especially just NE of town. I know Bartlesville, OK is getting engineers on-site to further survey the 2x4’s impaled into a concrete wall at the Hampton Inn. Concerning Barnsdall, there’s questions regarding the few structures wiped clean to the slab. A few of them were mobile homes, but one was thrown a good distance away. One of the structures reduced to slab was not a mobile home though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted May 8 Author Share Posted May 8 D1 Mod and D2 ENH lined up, former with a 10% hatched tor risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 Multiple areas to watch across the subforum region today. SPC has a moderate risk for a threat of very large hail and tornadoes across southern Missouri and vicinity. Convection is ongoing near/north of the warm front, as well as closer to a surface low, ahead of an approaching cold front. Watch the warm frontal zone across southern Missouri and perhaps far northern Arkansas for the greatest tornado threat later today. Here, low level hodographs are enlarged and both deep layer shear and instability are more than sufficient. Satellite imagery shows a few boundaries across Arkansas, but weaker large scale forcing and capping will be limiting factors. A few CAMs have hinted at isolated open warm sector development as well, so the threat is non-zero here. Early afternoon convection near the MO/OK border should expand and shift east. Additional development down the cold front is possible across eastern Oklahoma, although there is still some capping noted. Another area to watch is northeast Texas. Warmer mid level temperatures are in place, so CI should be delayed until late afternoon. Hodographs are elongated with less low level curvature. This combined with extreme instability suggests large/very large hail will probably be the main threat. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 Lots of supercells out there this afternoon across a wide area! Several tornado warnings as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 8 Share Posted May 8 this was a tornado emergency near and east of Columbia Tennessee and I think the tornado tracked over I-65 and may have dissipated near that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 multiple confirmed tornado warnings at the AL/TN border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 What a night for the TN Valley. My goodness this has been a prolific three days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 TDS and potentially large tornado outside of Athens, Alabama Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 first tornado warning for Georgia today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 Storm just south of Sulphuric Springs might have a TOR on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 tornado warning for Huntsville Quote Until 1015 PM CDT. * At 926 PM CDT, a tornado producing storm was located over eastern Huntsville, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 this looks huge now, in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 tornado seen by traffic cam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 Targeted Northeast Texas and briefly caught a tornado about 7 miles NW of Paris, TX. Visibility was low for much of the chase, both due to haze and terrain. I could not confirm a ground circulation from my vantage point, but others closer could. It was also a bad area for radar data. Right in the middle of the TLX-SRX-FWS triangle. The picture is from 7:48 PM, when it was winding down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 both of these are confirmed tornadoes in Alabama. It's possible that two tornadoes hit Huntsville tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 Cell that ran through Huntsville earlier is now over Henegar that looks like a massive tornado. Very high velos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 9 Share Posted May 9 tornado emergency now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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