cstrunk Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 SPC Day One Outlook (4-30-24): SPC Day Two Outlook (4-31-24): Severe storms in chaseable terrain return today and tomorrow (possibly Thursday too?). Today's threat covers areas hit hard by Friday's storms in E NE and W IA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 I think 'SLIGHT' gets extended towards Wichita Falls if SPC buys the 3km NAM. A lot of activity on the dry line. Weak winds on forecast skew-T but near 4000 J/Kg MLCAPE suggests hail threat. Not super exciting shear. Line weakens after dark. FV3 looks similar, maybe a bit less coverage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 Looks like a slam dunk for severe storms today up around the western Iowa/Omaha vicinity again. Some storms will probably develop southwestward into Kansas, but convective initiation across OK/TX is more uncertain. At least isolated storm development is possible, but I’m not sure I buy the more aggressive models with their biases. Tomorrow has a very interesting synoptic look. Weak, glancing forcing with sufficient deep layer shear atop an unstable environment. Early day convection across KS/OK may play a key role in where the severe threats wind up. The more aggressive CAMs show convection diving into Oklahoma, pushing an effective front/outflow boundary into the Texas panhandle/NW Texas, toward the Red River. The HRRR and RRFS show less convection, keeping the front over western to south-central Kansas. Watch where the boundary sets up. Does it sink into western Oklahoma? Or does it stay up in Kansas? The favored area for severe convection will be near the triple point, OFB/WF intersection. We’ll probably have a better idea tonight, based on model trends and how much convection forms with southward extent. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 Spectacular tornado near Westmoreland KS right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestBabylonWeather Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 Reed just had a crazy live stream. Still going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 maybe Kansas is going to be our hot spot tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 Big cone tornado on Vermilion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gobucks15 Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 The radar structure of all these storms is absolutely menacing. OKC might be under the gun soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 new tornado warning next to Topeka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 So are we gonna talk about those storms in SW OK? They already had at least 1 confirmed tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 up to 3" hail in SW Oklahoma Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 new tornado warning next to TopekaIf that thing tightens up in the next 10 minutes then we’ve got a situation here. Quite a bit of instability and helicity to work with. Condensation level is a little high north of OK though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 So are we gonna talk about those storms in SW OK? They already had at least 1 confirmed tornado. The environment looks dangerous around OKC. Unreal it’s under a MARGINAL risk, showing no inhibition with extremely high instability and much better LCLs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 My thoughts too... what a crazy couple weeks this has become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 My thoughts too... what a crazy couple weeks this has become.Sheesh that cell is trying so hard in Topeka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 30 Share Posted April 30 Had at least a brief tor on it per spotter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 SW OK storms continue to consolidate and ramp up. Betting we will see a nasty tornado out of this one soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 possible tornado at Perry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 https://www.facebook.com/share/v/4Rkder71fihzG6BF/?mibextid=WC7FNe Reed Timmer intercepted a large tornado just north of Topeka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxSynopsisDavid Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 This might be the single most violent motion I’ve ever seen documented. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 confirmed tornado warning at Frederick Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tezeta Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 16 minutes ago, WxSynopsisDavid said: This might be the single most violent motion I’ve ever seen documented. It’s a great video. Awesome intercept. But nowhere near the most violent motion. Go watch films of the Elie MB tornado. That’s my go-to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 This might be the single most violent motion I’ve ever seen documented. Maybe one of the more reckless, but no. IMO the Phil Campbell, AL tornado takes the cake for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Norman OK 839 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 OKC015-031-010200- /O.CON.KOUN.TO.W.0084.000000T0000Z-240501T0200Z/ Comanche OK-Caddo OK- 839 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT FOR NORTH CENTRAL COMANCHE AND SOUTHWESTERN CADDO COUNTIES... At 837 PM CDT, a confirmed tornado was located near Boone, moving north at 10 mph. HAZARD...Damaging tornado and half dollar size hail. SOURCE...Weather spotters reported a tornado south of Boone, moving north. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. Locations impacted include... Apache, Boone, northwestern Lake Ellsworth, and Stecker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 1 hour ago, Tezeta said: It’s a great video. Awesome intercept. But nowhere near the most violent motion. Go watch films of the Elie MB tornado. That’s my go-to. Wynnewood OK was the craziest I've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 The Westmoreland KS Curly Q is probably going to be the most unique and incredible of 2024 but not the best of all time. There are too many insane videos to have a #1, I could narrow to a Top 5 perhaps. Its this year's version of the Dalton/Ashby MN July 8 2020. I understand the panning up and down to get the scope of the absurd length of the funnel but I wish at least someone kept the base in view longer. The chasers were in a very dangerous spot where they could've been killed instantly by that debris but we got something special from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 The HRRR really performed particularly poorly today for southwestern Oklahoma. It didn’t show any convection until the 22z run, while the NAM (and other CAMs) showed CI for several runs. As I type this, a Tornado Emergency has just been issued for Tillman County and surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 Violent tornado east of Hollister, nearly stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 Yes insane couplet showing up on FDR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted May 1 Share Posted May 1 And there's the CC drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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