Winter 2024-2025 DISC

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/1/2024 at 10:48 AM, Great Snow 1717 said:

I've been saying that for quite some time. 

Operative word being "almost"...I don't think they are entirely useless, but its clear now that you can't just rip and read these analogs from 20+ years ago.

Agree.

[40/70 Benchmark]

This may come off the wrong way and induce some eye rolls, but I am really encouraged by my past couple of seasonal efforts despite the poor overall verification results. I honestly feel like my methods have continued to improve and the products are better than the ones that verified fairly well over the past decade. Its kind of analogous to a slugger with a statcast graphic adorned in red that isn't necessarily reflected by the poor surface stats. I feel like I have patched up some holes in my methodology and have fairly accurately predicited the gist of the hemispheric pattern, whereas some of those years that I ostensibly "nailed" were due to a good degree of luck that belied some huge forecast shortcomings. I have really improved with respect to the polar domain, but I obviously need to address the extra tropical Pacific and how to incoporate older analogs into a modern seasonal forecast.

I will no longer be ignoring the West Pacific Osillation, that is for sure....the Pacific drives the bus over the US and the West Pacific drives the Pacific.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/3/2024 at 1:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This may come off the wrong way and induce some eye rolls, but I am really encouraged by my past couple of seasonal efforts despite the poor overall verification results. I honestly feel like my methods have continued to improve and the products are better than the ones that verified fairly well over the past decade. Its kind of analogous to a slugger with a statcast graphic adorned in red that isn't necessarily reflected by the poor surface stats. I feel like I have patched up some holes in my methodology and have fairly accurately predicited the gist of the hemispheric pattern, whereas some of those years that I ostensibly "nailed" were due to a good degree of luck that belied some huge forecast shortcomings. I have really improved with respect to the polar domain, but I obviously need to address the extra tropical Pacific and how to incoporate older analogs into a modern seasonal forecast.

I will no longer be ignoring the West Pacific Osillation, that is for sure....the Pacific drives the bus over the US and the West Pacific drives the Pacific.

While I think this is generally true, my work was more flawed than I implied here.

Here is the post analysis.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/05/winter-2023-2024-outlook-largely-failure.html

[Jebman]

On 5/3/2024 at 12:17 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This may come off the wrong way and induce some eye rolls, but I am really encouraged by my past couple of seasonal efforts despite the poor overall verification results. I honestly feel like my methods have continued to improve and the products are better than the ones that verified fairly well over the past decade. Its kind of analogous to a slugger with a statcast graphic adorned in red that isn't necessarily reflected by the poor surface stats. I feel like I have patched up some holes in my methodology and have fairly accurately predicited the gist of the hemispheric pattern, whereas some of those years that I ostensibly "nailed" were due to a good degree of luck that belied some huge forecast shortcomings. I have really improved with respect to the polar domain, but I obviously need to address the extra tropical Pacific and how to incoporate older analogs into a modern seasonal forecast.

I will no longer be ignoring the West Pacific Osillation, that is for sure....the Pacific drives the bus over the US and the West Pacific drives the Pacific.

The Pac drives the bus right over the Sierra, dumping massive amounts of snow there. If I had the wealth, I would move to Palisades Tahoe, kick back and enjoy the deep snows year after year after year.

[forkyfork]

lol

[forkyfork]

just give up on winter

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 5/20/2024 at 8:10 AM, forkyfork said:

just give up on winter

Now post the snowfall trend for the same period if you want to provide a truly accurate portrayal.

[40/70 Benchmark]

My honest opinion is that there will be more down seasons and probably a decrease in average snowfall, but when we get it the ceiling will be higher than ever. I have said before that this is a trend I am fine with. I will gladly pass on a few 6-8" events in exchange for one 20"er. 

[radarman]

On 5/14/2024 at 9:21 PM, Jebman said:

The Pac drives the bus right over the Sierra, dumping massive amounts of snow there. If I had the wealth, I would move to Palisades Tahoe, kick back and enjoy the deep snows year after year after year.

It wasn't that long ago that the RRR had folks thinking that Cali was toast... fires, reservoirs drying up, etc., etc.  And here we are, lakes reemerging after decades, snow, and not too hot.

Long story short, by all means go to Tahoe.  It's awesome.  But what you'll get from a sensible weather standpoint is anyone's guess.

[CoastalWx]

Winter sucks now. Hope it gets better.

[40/70 Benchmark]

12 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Winter sucks now. Hope it gets better.

Paying the piper for 2011 and 2015....balance is just about squared up. Hopefully we sneak out a half decent season over the next few years, then I think we load up for another very nice run around the turn of the decade....near solar min and flip of the PDO in terms of multi-decadal trend. I think this decade is akin to the 50s and next decade maybe more like the 60s (modified).

[George001]

21 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My honest opinion is that there will be more down seasons and probably a decrease in average snowfall, but when we get it the ceiling will be higher than ever. I have said before that this is a trend I am fine with. I will gladly pass on a few 6-8" events in exchange for one 20"er. 

Agree. I also think the average snowfall will decline earlier in more marginal climates to begin with. For example, I expect snowfall averages to start declining earlier and faster for my area than some of you guys who live more inland and north. I suspect a 2007-2008 type pattern would have worse results for my area now than it would back then, but farther north would still get hammered.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Agree. I also think the average snowfall will decline earlier in more marginal climates to begin with. For example, I expect snowfall averages to start declining earlier and faster for my area than some of you guys who live more inland and north. I suspect a 2007-2008 type pattern would have worse results for my area now than it would back then, but farther north would still get hammered.

I doubt it. We had a good cold source for many of those events. Our biggest problem is that we have no good highs that anchor north of Maine or over in Ontario. If we had that 07-08 look again, I wouldn't expect much difference at all.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I doubt it. We had a good cold source for many of those events. Our biggest problem is that we have no good highs that anchor north of Maine or over in Ontario. If we had that 07-08 look again, I wouldn't expect much difference at all.

Obviously the climate is warming dramtically, but a lot of folks don't realize that the vast majority of that warming is experienced during periods of time when the stakes are lower...ie the ability for heat to escape on clear, calm nights is reduced significantly. However, the lack of snowfall of late, at least in this region, is due primarily to just bad patterns mixed with some awful luck. Its comical how the stars have aligned perfectly to avoid a well placed/time high. Simple as that. 

Even Raindance will tell you this....the pattern has blown for the east. Its not some magical tipping point....but even if you want to entertain the notion that the warmer west Pac is causing said changes, there is still some dreadful luck that we can just never time a high right. We have had shit seasons in the past were we caught a break and got big snow, anyway.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I honestly think the most likely reality is that the west PAC is in fact driving this multi-year run of eastern futility, but it just so happens be the vehicle for the most recent round of cyclical variance. We have always had cycles like this.....the west was a barren wasteland for years and now are enjoying a several year run of revitalization. Something will flip it back at some point. Of course, the wintert time daily mins will drive up the DJF anomaly even more so the next time it does.

JMHO.

[brooklynwx99]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I honestly think the most likely reality is that the west PAC is in fact driving this multi-year run of eastern futility, but it just so happens be the vehicle for the most recent round of cyclical variance. We have always had cycles like this.....the west was a barren wasteland for years and now are enjoying a several year run of revitalization. Something will flip it back at some point. Of course, the wintert time daily mins will drive up the DJF anomaly even more so the next time it does.

JMHO.

only a matter of time until we see positive regression to the mean. a lot of us forget how prolific the 2000s and 2010s were since we were living through them. the 70s and 80s were way more futile than this stretch

NYC had ONE winter over 30" between 1969-70 and 1992-93, which was 1977-78. one! could you imagine now? people would be jumping from rooftops. yes, there were less complete duds and it was colder overall, but I will take the duds if it means more 40"+ winters

[powderfreak]

5 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I honestly think the most likely reality is that the west PAC is in fact driving this multi-year run of eastern futility, but it just so happens be the vehicle for the most recent round of cyclical variance. We have always had cycles like this.....the west was a barren wasteland for years and now are enjoying a several year run of revitalization. Something will flip it back at some point. Of course, the wintert time daily mins will drive up the DJF anomaly even more so the next time it does.

JMHO.

The western ski areas have been on a bender for about the same amount of time we’ve been sucking car tailpipes.  You can see it in a lot of the bigger snowfall locals.  Like Utah’s Wasatch went through a stretch of winters with snowfall in the 300s, well below normal for them back in the earlier 2010s.  Starting around 2017 they’ve been going to town and now each year is like 600”.

I follow a lot of the western snowfall totals and it isn’t a coincidence that we’ve been struggling for years now while they’ve flipped snowier/stormier.

[Jebman]

On 5/21/2024 at 8:14 PM, CoastalWx said:

Winter sucks now. Hope it gets better.

It will get better. Next winter will be very good snow wise in the SNE/ NE.