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2024-2025 La Nina

George001
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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
On 2/21/2024 at 9:53 AM, GaWx said:


 I was curious because I had never analyzed this. The following analysis of the top 10 ACE seasons suggests to me that a weak to moderate correlation of ACE to BOS/NYC snowfall the next cold season quite possibly exists, especially BOS, though ACE definitely shouldn’t be weighted heavily:


Top 10 ACE years/snowfall following cold season

1933 NYC: 52.0”; BOS: 62.7”; mod La Nina

2005 NYC: 40.0”; BOS: 39.9”; wk La Nina

1893 NYC: 39.2”; BOS: 64.0”; mod La Nina

1926 NYC: 22.3”; BOS: 41.1”; neutral

1995 NYC: 75.6”; BOS: 107.6”; mod La Nina

2004 NYC: 41.0”; BOS: 86.6”; wk El Niño

2017 NYC: 40.9”; BOS: 59.9”; mod La Niña 

1950 NYC: 9.3”; BOS: 29.7”; neutral

1961 NYC: 18.1”; BOS: 44.7”; neutral

1998 NYC: 12.7”; BOS: 36.4”; strng La Nina

 

AVG NYC for top 10 ACE:  35.1” vs 28.5” mean of all years since 1868-9 or 23% above mean snowfall

2 MAN (including record heaviest), 4 AN, 0 NN, 2 BN, 2 MBN; 60% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow

—————————————-

AVG BOS for top 10 ACE: 57.3” vs 43.1” mean all years since 1890-1 or 33% above mean snowfall

2 MAN (both in top 5), 3 AN, 4 NN, 1 BN, 0 MBN; 70% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow

————————————

ACE:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is,into a single index value.

 

NYC:
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx


BOS:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=box


*Edit: This is a small sample but is it possible that a moderate La Niña has a notable correlation to heavier snow in BOS and/or NYC? Anyone know?

The results are also good for Detroit.

Current 1991-2020 avg: 45.0". Period of record avg: 41.0".

 

Avg snowfall for the top 10 ACE: 44.5"

Avg for the 9 MODOKI Ninas since 1950: 49.2"

Avg for all 24 Ninas since 1950: 44.5"

 

Avg for a strong NINO since 1950: 30.7"

Avg for a strong NINA since 1950: 49.2"

 

I should also note that the # of good winters outpaces the bad winters in Ninas, and the few dud snow years that kept the curve in the 40s-inches were good winters in other places, just not here.

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raindancewx
raindancewx

The PDO continues to reverse from pretty negative despite the El Nino falling apart. That's worth watching. The +PDO La Ninas are an interesting bunch.  +PDO tends to be cold East, La Nina tends

Terpeast
Terpeast

Even if this La Nina stays weak-moderate, the surrounding warmth of the oceans and the West Pac will create a very strong La Nina state much like 2022-23.  With a +QBO and solar cycle beginning t

so_whats_happening
so_whats_happening

This has been a topic of discussion between me and another colleague. Tropical activity is the balancer to bring heat and moisture to high latitudes but with that temp increase in the northern oceans

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 2/21/2024 at 7:41 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Something will balance out the Pacific eventually....the super El Nino of 2016 was the impetus to correct that crazy 2015 western ridging that brought the 100" in 30 days to Boston.....and as many have pointed out, we have been stuck with that western warm pool ever since. Maybe the tropics in conjunction with the emergent La Nina flip it this year...who knows. But I am betting on mother nature finding a way, CC be damned.

unfortunately we have been talking about ocean acidification and a mass extinction event (which we have already started), it's happened in the past, where up to 90% of life on the planet goes extinct as nature is trying to balance things out.

ocean hypoxia is quite frightening, can you imagine all that life dying wow

reaching temperature thresholds like 1.5 C and 2.0 C are the wrong things to talk about, the real danger is a runaway chemical process after reaching a tipping point or threshold and that runaway chemical process is what will cascade into something we can never come back from.

the problem is not simply of temperatures, but of a runaway cascading chemical process from which there is no return

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
On 2/21/2024 at 9:53 AM, GaWx said:


 I was curious because I had never analyzed this. The following analysis of the top 10 ACE seasons suggests to me that a weak to moderate correlation of ACE to BOS/NYC snowfall the next cold season quite possibly exists, especially BOS, though ACE definitely shouldn’t be weighted heavily:


Top 10 ACE years/snowfall following cold season

1933 NYC: 52.0”; BOS: 62.7”; mod La Nina

2005 NYC: 40.0”; BOS: 39.9”; wk La Nina

1893 NYC: 39.2”; BOS: 64.0”; mod La Nina

1926 NYC: 22.3”; BOS: 41.1”; neutral

1995 NYC: 75.6”; BOS: 107.6”; mod La Nina

2004 NYC: 41.0”; BOS: 86.6”; wk El Niño

2017 NYC: 40.9”; BOS: 59.9”; mod La Niña 

1950 NYC: 9.3”; BOS: 29.7”; neutral

1961 NYC: 18.1”; BOS: 44.7”; neutral

1998 NYC: 12.7”; BOS: 36.4”; strng La Nina

 

AVG NYC for top 10 ACE:  35.1” vs 28.5” mean of all years since 1868-9 or 23% above mean snowfall

2 MAN (including record heaviest), 4 AN, 0 NN, 2 BN, 2 MBN; 60% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow

—————————————-

AVG BOS for top 10 ACE: 57.3” vs 43.1” mean all years since 1890-1 or 33% above mean snowfall

2 MAN (both in top 5), 3 AN, 4 NN, 1 BN, 0 MBN; 70% of top 10 ACE seasons had above snowfall median to follow

————————————

ACE:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy#:~:text=Accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) is,into a single index value.

 

NYC:
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx


BOS:

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=box


*Edit: This is a small sample but is it possible that a moderate La Niña has a notable correlation to heavier snow in BOS and/or NYC? Anyone know?

I'm surprised 2020 isn't in this list

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

wow from a different era.... I'm shocked it's not 2005 with all those cat 5 storms and wilma, the strongest storm in recorded history in the atlantic.

Others in the top 13 from another era, when tropical activity was probably undercounted:

#3: 1893, a devastating season for the US

#4: 1926, a very bad season for FL/Gulf/Bermuda

#8: 1950 FL hard hit

#9: 1961

#11: 1887

#12: 1878

 Hoping if there is another very active ACE that they mainly stay offshore and not like 1893, 1926, 1950, 2004, 2005, 2017, 2020, etc.

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Others in the top 13 from another era, when tropical activity was probably undercounted:

#3: 1893, a devastating season for the US

#4: 1926, a very bad season for FL/Gulf/Bermuda

#8: 1950 FL hard hit

#9: 1961

#11: 1887

#12: 1878

 Hoping if there is another very active ACE that they mainly stay offshore and not like 1893, 1926, 1950, 2004, 2005, 2017, 2020, etc.

1893 exciting season a hurricane hit NYC directly!

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted
45 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wow did that hit Savannah directly?

 More or less. The lowlands from the upper GA coast to CHS (not downtown and nearby in SAV as it fortunately is 20-40 feet up on a bluff) were devastated by storm surge, especially many poor African Americans living on islands. It was the most destructive US natural disaster at the time. Very sad. :(
 

“Unfortunately, not all communities received the warnings. Home to more than 30,000 African Americans who farmed, worked in rice fields, and plied nearby waters for fish, oysters, shrimp, and crabs, the Sea Islands were accessible only by boat. Their remote location allowed for the preservation of the unique Gullah and Geecheeculture, but limited communication with the mainland—a fact that would carry dire consequences for residents unprepared for the coming storm.”

https://www.georgiaencyclopedia.org/articles/history-archaeology/1893-sea-islands-hurricane/

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, GaWx said:

Others in the top 13 from another era, when tropical activity was probably undercounted:

#3: 1893, a devastating season for the US

#4: 1926, a very bad season for FL/Gulf/Bermuda

#8: 1950 FL hard hit

#9: 1961

#11: 1887

#12: 1878

 Hoping if there is another very active ACE that they mainly stay offshore and not like 1893, 1926, 1950, 2004, 2005, 2017, 2020, etc.

1995 is the perfect example of that. 

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Neutral is definitely fine. I just meant when el nino vs la nina...la nina ALL the way.

You’ll probably do fine next winter, or even more than fine. But I’m pretty bearish on any wintry prospects east of the apps. 

Anyone who thinks that high ACE will give us a better winter in the east is likely wishcasting. We need -EPO/-NAO blocking to make that happen, and I think we don’t get as much blocking as we hope. Even less than this year, and definitely less than last year. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, Terpeast said:

You’ll probably do fine next winter, or even more than fine. But I’m pretty bearish on any wintry prospects east of the apps. 

Anyone who thinks that high ACE will give us a better winter in the east is likely wishcasting. We need -EPO/-NAO blocking to make that happen, and I think we don’t get as much blocking as we hope. Even less than this year, and definitely less than last year. 

How is it a wish cast? Silly accusation without anything to back it up. The data supports high ACE/better eastern winter correlation...likely due to how the how the extreme heat transport impacts the extra tropical Pacific. Even Raindance will tell you that.

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Maestrobjwa

Maestrobjwa

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How is it a wish cast? Silly accusation without anything to back it up. The data supports high ACE/better eastern winter correlation...likely due to how the how the extreme heat transport impacts the extra tropical Pacific. Even Raindance will tell you that.

Haven't we had a high ACE season or two the last 8 years or so?

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Haven't we had a high ACE season or two the last 8 years or so?

2017, 20

 I showed stats for NYC and especially Boston that suggest a modest correlation likely really does exist in the NE. Keep in mind that any correlation is likely not strong thus meaning a good number of exceptions and also that it is more for the NE US, especially Boston area, and not so much if any for the Mid Atlantic.

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How is it a wish cast? Silly accusation without anything to back it up. The data supports high ACE/better eastern winter correlation...likely due to how the how the extreme heat transport impacts the extra tropical Pacific. Even Raindance will tell you that.

Weenie tag me all you want, but I’m just not buying the ACE correlation with eastern winters. If it only works with La Ninas like raindance says, I interpret that as a sign that it doesn’t work at all except mere coincidence. Even some of the classic tele-correlations are not working anymore since about 2018, presumably because of the pacific, which leads me to my next point:

Until that marine heat wave off Japan completely dissipates and the Pacific has wholesale changes flipping the PDO to positive, we’re gonna see more of the same in warmer east winters regardless of whether it’s a La Nina or El Nino, or what the Altantic basin decides to do in terms of hurricane activity. 

Btw @40/70 Benchmark My post was in no way directed at you, I was speaking in general about the ACE correlation. I always read your work and have nothing but respect for what you’ve done. 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Terpeast said:

Weenie tag me all you want, but I’m just not buying the ACE correlation with eastern winters. If it only works with La Ninas like raindance says, I interpret that as a sign that it doesn’t work at all except mere coincidence. Even some of the classic tele-correlations are not working anymore since about 2018, presumably because of the pacific, which leads me to my next point:

Until that marine heat wave off Japan completely dissipates and the Pacific has wholesale changes flipping the PDO to positive, we’re gonna see more of the same in warmer east winters regardless of whether it’s a La Nina or El Nino, or what the Altantic basin decides to do in terms of hurricane activity. 

Btw @40/70 Benchmark My post was in no way directed at you, I was speaking in general about the ACE correlation. I always read your work and have nothing but respect for what you’ve done. 

That's the thing....an extraordinarily active tropical season coupled with a healthy La Nina is probably the key to disarming that marine heat wave, just as the super El Nino of 2016 aided in its configuration.

But I get it...we're all human and its difficult to imagine a decent eastern winter right now.

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mitchnick

mitchnick

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's the thing....an extraordinarily active tropical season coupled with a healthy La Nina is probably the key to disarming that marine heat wave, just as the super El Nina of 2016 aided in its configuration.

But I get it...we're all human and its difficult to imagine a decent eastern winter right now.

The correlation may work better up north than the MA snow pits.

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Terpeast

Terpeast

Posted
Posted
47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

That's the thing....an extraordinarily active tropical season coupled with a healthy La Nina is probably the key to disarming that marine heat wave, just as the super El Nino of 2016 aided in its configuration.

But I get it...we're all human and its difficult to imagine a decent eastern winter right now.

Let’s see what the west pacific does as far as typhoon season goes. Maybe it will help dent that marine heat wave off Japan. 

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Great Snow 1717

Great Snow 1717

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Terpeast said:

You’ll probably do fine next winter, or even more than fine. But I’m pretty bearish on any wintry prospects east of the apps. 

Anyone who thinks that high ACE will give us a better winter in the east is likely wishcasting. We need -EPO/-NAO blocking to make that happen, and I think we don’t get as much blocking as we hope. Even less than this year, and definitely less than last year. 

I agree.

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michsnowfreak

michsnowfreak

Posted
Posted
16 hours ago, Terpeast said:

You’ll probably do fine next winter, or even more than fine. But I’m pretty bearish on any wintry prospects east of the apps. 

Anyone who thinks that high ACE will give us a better winter in the east is likely wishcasting. We need -EPO/-NAO blocking to make that happen, and I think we don’t get as much blocking as we hope. Even less than this year, and definitely less than last 

Nothing is ever a guarantee. But it's always a best bet to play the odds. Have their been dud la ninas here? Yes. But the overall odds favor a much better winter. And for the same Northwoods areas that are setting records for low snow in northern MN and northern MI this winter, the odds are even stronger for bountiful snow next winter. One trend that is quite strong here locally in a la nina, regardless of strength, is having one well above avg snow month. For some reason it's usually December or February.

 

Ill defer analyzing New England to those familiar with the climo but I do feel that a handful of bad winters, which are a combination of both bad patterns AND bad luck, are jading things a bit. It was not that long ago that everyone from the Great Lakes to the New England was destroying climo with abundant snow seemingly no matter what the pattern was. Things do change and patterns don't last forever. 

 

Lastly, one rule I have always followed in weather. And I KNOW this is not popular among some. Is that when you have a great winter, or string of them, the odds increase that a stinker is coming up...and it works vice versa. It's gone on since the beginning of climate record. 

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