PowellVolz Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I have battered Nina winter syndrome. I am going to apply all caveats in order to CYA. I’m afraid that after tomorrow’s system completely clears the country, there could be a big swing for the Tuesday event for a day or so. We just need for whatever happens, happens after the front goes through. What the Euro showed earlier would break our spirits. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Day 6-10 analogs: 19700105 19681230 19800125 19590116 19770128 19960201 19780127 19690110 19940106 19800130 Day 8-14 19800128 19580205 19780129 19610128 19700106 19590114 20030113 19700111 19690111 19630131 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: I’m afraid that after tomorrow’s system completely clears the country, there could be a big swing for the Tuesday event for a day or so. We just need for whatever happens, happens after the front goes through. What the Euro showed earlier would break our spirits. . It's no wonder we have so few statewide events. Here in the Tri-Cities, I can get to Canada quicker than I can Memphis. Just so hard to align a storm west to east over that type of distance. Someone usually gets hosed. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I’m afraid that after tomorrow’s system completely clears the country, there could be a big swing for the Tuesday event for a day or so. We just need for whatever happens, happens after the front goes through. What the Euro showed earlier would break our spirits. . I just kind of roll with it. At 7 days, hopefully everyone knows the drill............. Another big shift is when NA wx station pick up the energy. Generally, tracking this far out doesn't work out just due to being sad far out in time. If the cold front stays north/south and taps the GOM, that is what we want and makes for easier tracking. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 Looks like there are some strong winds on top of LeConte. Can’t post the radar image from my phone but if I remember correctly the trees up there can show up as intense radar returns if they are moving. If you have radar scope check out the area just SE of Gatlinburg. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, tnweathernut said: It's no wonder we have so few statewide events. Here in the Tri-Cities, I can get to Canada quicker than I can Memphis. Just so hard to align a storm west to east over that type of distance. Someone usually gets hosed. I grew up a Boston Red Sox fan and a TN fan(mid-late 1970s)......getting hosed is just part of life's right of passage for me. That is probably why I like the weather, it is just some kind of sick hobby that reminds me of my sports hobby. I also like to fish. Maybe I just like randomly being disappointed on a regular basis. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Here are the afternoon CPC goodies. If it doesn't get cold, we will blame them for putting us inside the bubble. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 For the record, I called for a warm-up from Jan 12-25th. How's that working out? LOL 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I grew up a Boston Red Sox fan and a TN fan(mid-late 1970s)......getting hosed is just part of life's right of passage for me. That is probably why I like the weather, it is just some kind of sick hobby that reminds me of my sports hobby. I also like to fish. Maybe I just like randomly being disappointed on a regular basis. Try being a Minnesota Vikings fan....... lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 Just got a 110 mph return on radar scope velocity near Leconte. No idea how accurate it is for ground level conditions. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just now, tnweathernut said: Try being a Minnesota Vikings fan....... lol I remember watching Ahmad Rashad's miracle catch live on TV. Minnesota needs to go back to playing games outside, and get a little home field advantage like the Packers....and frost bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Just got a 110 mph return on radar scope velocity near Leconte. No idea how accurate it is for ground level conditions. That is crazy, man! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Why is the rest of the valley not under an advisory? The winds are absolutely howling here! Gusting to 30+ already 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: That is crazy, man! The insurance guy over here can't catch a break. Several hail storms the past 3 years, last years Christmas pipe buster. Now we get damaging winds across the area tomorrow, likely another round late week, followed by another pipe buster next week. I really need a break. And people wonder why their home and auto insurances are going up at the rate of double digits increases each year. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Just got a 110 mph return on radar scope velocity near Leconte. No idea how accurate it is for ground level conditions. I believe it the wind in the last hour has increased rapidly here. Only gusts to about 15 an hour ago but now gusting past 30.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 9 Author Share Posted January 9 9 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: I believe it the wind in the last hour has increased rapidly here. Only gusts to about 15 an hour ago but now gusting past 30. Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk Not too much up here on the plateau yet but my location doesn’t usually get much in these situations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Why is the rest of the valley not under an advisory? The winds are absolutely howling here! Gusting to 30+ alreadyI was surprised by that also. I guess using their modeling of winds seemed to show an area with a lull in the center of the central valley. Might be a big bust in their forecast.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Not too much up here on the plateau yet but my location doesn’t usually get much in these situations. I am too usually from south winds as my exposure is north with a ridge generally blocking south winds. Usually in strong south winds I can hear them roaring up the ridge from my house. Though even with that protection I still tend to somehow get the odd gust that comes down the ridge. Those odd gusts have been numerous in the last hour, more than normal.Sent from my Pixel 7 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I was at basketball games this evening. No wind when I left the gym but it's ripping here at home. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Math/Met Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 26 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: @Math/Met, are we gonna have power tomorrow in E TN? I see where school systems are wisely on delays or closed due to wind potential. Any update on the mountain wave event? It looks like the mountain wave event is underway. Just noticed a 60mph gust on a weather station in southern Greene Co. I'm actually keeping an eye on areas west of Camp Creek too. On rare occasions, that area can get wind gusts that rival what is experienced at Camp Creek Elementary for a particular event. Unfortunately, the data in that area aren't as reliable. That includes areas like Cedar Creek and St. James. The roof has been blown off the gym at South Greene HS a few times, so these windstorms aren't isolated to the Camp Creek community. This event might actually favor areas just to the west of Camp Creek...but that's just speculation on my part. Regarding your question, I still believe the effects of the mountain waves will extend away from the foothills in a few areas, and it could cause tree and power issues. It's difficult to pinpoint where. It's common to have 70mph wind gusts in one area while winds remain relatively light just a few miles away. The LLJ is extremely strong tonight and other parameters are favorable, so it's hard to imagine there won't be some very high gusts recorded. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, Math/Met said: It looks like the mountain wave event is underway. Just noticed a 60mph gust on a weather station in southern Greene Co. I'm actually keeping an eye on areas west of Camp Creek too. On rare occasions, that area can get wind gusts that rival what is experienced at Camp Creek Elementary for a particular event. Unfortunately, the data in that area aren't as reliable. That includes areas like Cedar Creek and St. James. The roof has been blown off the gym at South Greene HS a few times, so these windstorms aren't isolated to the Camp Creek community. This event might actually favor areas just to the west of Camp Creek...but that's just speculation on my part. Regarding your question, I still believe the effects of the mountain waves will extend away from the foothills in a few areas, and it could cause tree and power issues. It's difficult to pinpoint where. It's common to have 70mph wind gusts in one area while winds remain relatively light just a few miles away. The LLJ is extremely strong tonight and other parameters are favorable, so it's hard to imagine there won't be some very high gusts recorded. Right on time pal, I was just about to put up the signal! 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 5 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: That is quite possibly the boldest, and probably dumbest thing a major news station could put out for something a week away.............. IMO. lol 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 I just kind of roll with it. At 7 days, hopefully everyone knows the drill............. Another big shift is when NA wx station pick up the energy. Generally, tracking this far out doesn't work out just due to being sad far out in time. If the cold front stays north/south and taps the GOM, that is what we want and makes for easier tracking. Nothing wrong with tracking 7+ days with an active pattern and arctic air moving in makes this much different IMO. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Well you know if it is accurate, that’s probably right on the ground. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nash_LSU Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 28 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: That is quite possibly the boldest, and probably dumbest thing a major news station could put out for something a week away.............. IMO. lol That was my thinking, too. Like, it's alright for us on weather message board to throw stuff out, but a news station in a large market is a different story. We get off on this kind of stuff, but we also know it may go poof tomorrow. That said, we're getting snow next week, dangit 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 It looks like the mountain wave event is underway. Just noticed a 60mph gust on a weather station in southern Greene Co. I'm actually keeping an eye on areas west of Camp Creek too. On rare occasions, that area can get wind gusts that rival what is experienced at Camp Creek Elementary for a particular event. Unfortunately, the data in that area aren't as reliable. That includes areas like Cedar Creek and St. James. The roof has been blown off the gym at South Greene HS a few times, so these windstorms aren't isolated to the Camp Creek community. This event might actually favor areas just to the west of Camp Creek...but that's just speculation on my part. Regarding your question, I still believe the effects of the mountain waves will extend away from the foothills in a few areas, and it could cause tree and power issues. It's difficult to pinpoint where. It's common to have 70mph wind gusts in one area while winds remain relatively light just a few miles away. The LLJ is extremely strong tonight and other parameters are favorable, so it's hard to imagine there won't be some very high gusts recorded. Here’s the Cove Mt opps for this interested. It’s a mountain wave site. 54mph gust https://www.nps.gov/subjects/air/current-data.htm?site=grsm&location=cove-mountain&. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Wind Advisory issued for the Valley. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Wind Advisory issued for the Valley. . Yep! It was needed lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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