January 2024

[donsutherland1]

January is concluding with a monthly mean temperature of 37.0° in New York City. That is 3.3° above normal. The December 1-January 31 mean temperature will be 40.8°, which ranks 5th highest on record. With the exception of Winter 1931-32, all of the five warmest December-January periods have occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1869.

Clouds could persist through much of tomorrow. It will turn milder with readings returning to the middle and upper 40s across the region. Philadelphia and southward could see the thermometer reach or exceed 50°. Showers and possibly a period of light rain is likely late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Friday through the weekend should feature dry and mild readings.

The generally mild conditions will likely continue into at least the second week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather.

Seasonal snowfall in New York City stood at 2.3" at the close of January. There were 19 prior winters that saw less than 3" of snow through January 31st. The mean snowfall for the remainder of the snow season for those winters was 11.4". The median snowfall was 10.4". The highest snowfall was 38.9" in 1914 with a blizzard on March 1-2 bringing 14.5" of snow. The historic figures for all winters are 14.6" and 11.8" respectively.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February.  

The SOI was -21.52 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.079 today.

On January 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.171 (RMM). The January 28-adjusted amplitude was 2.393 (RMM).

 

[gravitylover]

1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

My uncles place mid way between Scranton and Binghamton at 1900’ got 6”. So you just missed out on good banding. It was a lack of precip issue. I’ll be there this weekend. 

You should stop on the way and ski at the newly reopened Holiday Mt. New owner and rebuilt or refurbished everything. 

[wdrag]

8 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Of course 

Smh

Unfortunately, in the end I like the Canadian with snow, otherwise.

I sure hope we can get something those last two weeks of Feb. 

[LibertyBell]

31 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

January is concluding with a monthly mean temperature of 37.0° in New York City. That is 3.3° above normal. The December 1-January 31 mean temperature will be 40.8°, which ranks 5th highest on record. With the exception of Winter 1931-32, all of the five warmest December-January periods have occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1869.

Clouds could persist through much of tomorrow. It will turn milder with readings returning to the middle and upper 40s across the region. Philadelphia and southward could see the thermometer reach or exceed 50°. Showers and possibly a period of light rain is likely late tomorrow and tomorrow night. Friday through the weekend should feature dry and mild readings.

The generally mild conditions will likely continue into at least the second week of February with only brief interruptions. No Arctic air is likely to reach the area during this time. The second week of February could see the evolution toward a sustained colder pattern begin late that week. Overall, February will likely wind up warmer than normal even as the second half of the month could see a sustained period of colder weather.

Seasonal snowfall in New York City stood at 2.3" at the close of January. There were 19 prior winters that saw less than 3" of snow through January 31st. The mean snowfall for the remainder of the snow season for those winters was 11.4". The median snowfall was 10.4". The highest snowfall was 38.9" in 1914 with a blizzard on March 1-2 bringing 14.5" of snow. The historic figures for all winters are 14.6" and 11.8" respectively.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.7°C for the week centered around January 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.97°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.87°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The ongoing El Niño event will continue to fade through much of February.  

The SOI was -21.52 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +3.079 today.

On January 29 the MJO was in Phase 7 at an amplitude of 2.171 (RMM). The January 28-adjusted amplitude was 2.393 (RMM).

 

Don, what happened to the 1895-1896 winter in this list? Didn't we have less than 3" through the end of January and ended up with 46" that season-- mostly on the strength of the snowiest March on record with over 30" of snow in that month alone?

 

[sussexcountyobs]

2 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Kocin and Ucellini are already working on the case study.

LOL ! We will nickel and dime are way to under average !

[donsutherland1]

49 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Don, what happened to the 1895-1896 winter in this list? Didn't we have less than 3" through the end of January and ended up with 46" that season-- mostly on the strength of the snowiest March on record with over 30" of snow in that month alone?

 

Winter 1895-96 had an even 3" at the end of January. I looked at cases with below 3".

[JustinRP37]

Today was beautiful at Belleayre. Great snow and great conditions. 

[NorthShoreWx]

Woo hoo, the January thaw is over!

[bluewave]

The historic winter warmth pattern since December 2015 continues. A record breaking 20 warmer winter months out of the last 26. 
 

 

NYC

Jan 24..+3.3

Dec 23..+5.5

 

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.7

Jan 21….+1.1

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.4

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

 

The historic winter warmth pattern since December 2015 continues. A record breaking 20 warmer winter months out of the last 26. 
 

 

NYC

Jan 24..+3.3

Dec 23..+5.5

 

Feb 23…+5.2

Jan 23…+9.8

Dec 22…-0.6

…………..+4.8

 

Feb 22….+1.4

Jan 22….-3.2

Dec 21….+4.7

……………..+1.0

 

Feb 21….-1.7

Jan 21….+1.1

Dec 20…+1.7

…………..+0.4

 

Feb 20…+4.8

Jan 20….+6.5

Dec 19….+0.8

…………….+4.0

 

Feb 19….+0.9

Jan 19….-0.1

Dec 18…+2.6

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 18…+6.7

Jan 18….-0.9

Dec 17…..-2.5

…………….+1.1

 

Feb 17…..+6.3

Jan 17….+5.4

Dec 16….+0.8

…………….+4.2

 

Feb 16….+2.4

Jan 16….+1.9

Dec 15….+13.3

…………….+5.9

Chris how does this compare to the high solar early 90s (1990 and 1991) pattern of 22 out of 24 months above normal? Those were the two warmest years on record globally at that point in time.

[wdrag]

Update the initial Jan thread with monthly verification and comments.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

19 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Update the initial Jan thread with monthly verification and comments.

Cold In Montana has been amazingly consistent the last few winters. So I’ll add them with Alaska for places we do not want to see cold. 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Cold In Montana has been amazingly consistent the last few winters. So I’ll add them with Alaska for places we do not want to see cold. 

The further away you get from either ocean and with elevation, you'll get much more resistance to warming.  There were maps of this posted, the Northern Rockies have had the least deviation towards positive departures in temperature of any location in the CONUS.

 

[Roger Smith]

Temperature anomalies in western regions are a bit misleading, we've seen one super cold spell of about a week and otherwise mostly well above normal. DEN for example averaged +13.5 for last four days but -27 for Jan 11-16. A lot of daily records have been broken in the past week. So we've come to the end of the month with ground conditions (soggy snow at ski resorts) similar to 1998 despite a different anomaly. 

Now in the past few winters we have seen a few cases of cold anomalies persistent all month. Feb 2019 was a very cold month all along, and winter 2022-23 was generally quite cold. 

[donsutherland1]

On 1/28/2024 at 8:28 AM, donsutherland1 said:

Week ahead numbers: Cooler than the prior week but a snowy outcome appears unlikely based on those numbers and forecast drier pattern.

Final numbers: Warmer and drier than normal.