bluewave Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 9 hours ago, LibertyBell said: We already had an active tropical season with 20 storms lol (but only 1 landfall), how much more active can it get, do you think we could get 30 storms again? And do you think we could have a very hot summer too with 30+ 90 degree highs and maybe even a 100+ degree high or more (because of the el nino to la nina transition?) Off the charts SST warmth in the MDR right now. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: Off the charts SST warmth in the MDR right now. This is truly scary-- we've been focusing on an ice free arctic (and rightly so) but we've been ignoring the other big danger, which is a perennial tropical "season" that never ends.... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 hours ago, Snowstorms said: Rather impressive and dangerous cold out west. Red Deer, AB (in between Calgary/Edmonton) forecasted to drop to -50F over the next 2 nights which is only a degree or two away from the all-time Jan record low of -52F. Records go back to 1904 there. Let's see if they break it. Hoping it moves east and helps increase all of our snow chances. Two sub 980 low's cutting through the lakes this week, which in an ideal world would be amazing for us, but it's been way too warm. We got 2" with the first storm followed by an inch of rain and maybe another 4" tomorrow then rain showers lol. This pattern blows. Wow I actually know people in the Red Deer and Medicine Hat and Brooks area, they are definitely not used to this kind of cold there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 hours ago, bluewave said: The 950 mb benchmark blizzard in January 2018 had single digits around the storm. It makes mixed precip near the coast less likely. It also allows us to retain snowpack longer. Was this the one with the whiteout conditions during the day? That looked like a true blizzard-- I didn't realize that it got all the way down to 950mb, I thought it was around 970mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 6 hours ago, bluewave said: The heat island in NYC has been fairly stable for a long time. They have actually been doing slightly better than the rural areas relative to the record the absolute coldest temperatures. At least NYC was able to dip below 0° as recently as 2016. But POU hasn’t been able to make it to -15 or lower since 1994. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1961 -30 1 2 1967 -23 0 - 1950 -23 2 3 1954 -22 0 4 1994 -20 29 - 1981 -20 8 - 1968 -20 0 5 1984 -18 0 - 1971 -18 0 - 1964 -18 0 - 1945 -18 2 6 1970 -16 0 - 1963 -16 0 - 1934 -16 2 7 1988 -15 0 - 1979 -15 0 - 1965 -15 0 - 1943 -15 1 - 1933 -15 1 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1934 -15 0 2 1917 -13 0 3 1943 -8 0 4 1933 -6 0 - 1918 -6 0 - 1899 -6 0 - 1882 -6 0 - 1880 -6 1 5 1914 -5 0 - 1896 -5 0 6 1942 -4 0 - 1904 -4 0 - 1895 -4 1 - 1886 -4 0 - 1879 -4 2 7 1936 -3 0 - 1912 -3 0 - 1884 -3 0 - 1881 -3 3 - 1875 -3 2 8 1994 -2 0 - 1985 -2 0 - 1977 -2 0 - 1963 -2 0 - 1961 -2 0 - 1925 -2 0 - 1922 -2 0 - 1920 -2 0 - 1885 -2 0 - 1871 -2 2 9 2016 -1 0 it's notable that it hasn't gotten lower than -2 since 1943 lol, do you think that will ever happen again? That -8 in 1943 really stands out like a sore thumb, I know we all see maps of the -15 from February 1934 but what kind of pattern caused that -8 in 1943? I know we had some very cold winters both during WW1 and WW2..... PS I noticed something Chris..... in 1994 Poughkeepsie got down to -20, but "only" to -15 in 1943..... while NYC got down to -8 in 1943 but "only" -2 in 1994.... is the difference because of UHI..... in other words, should 1994 have gotten colder than 1943 were it not for UHI, like it did in Poughkeepsie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Weeklies are cold for February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: it's notable that it hasn't gotten lower than -2 since 1943 lol, do you think that will ever happen again? That -8 in 1943 really stands out like a sore thumb, I know we all see maps of the -15 from February 1934 but what kind of pattern caused that -8 in 1943? I know we had some very cold winters both during WW1 and WW2..... PS I noticed something Chris..... in 1994 Poughkeepsie got down to -20, but "only" to -15 in 1943..... while NYC got down to -8 in 1943 but "only" -2 in 1994.... is the difference because of UHI..... in other words, should 1994 have gotten colder than 1943 were it not for UHI, like it did in Poughkeepsie? It can’t be UHI since Philly and Newark had top 5 all-time cold as recently as the 1980s and early 1990s. I just think the trajectory of the Arctic outbreaks from 77 to 94 favored areas to the north, west, and south of NYC. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1934 -11 0 2 1984 -7 0 - 1982 -7 0 3 1985 -6 0 - 1899 -6 0 4 1994 -5 0 - 1963 -5 0 - 1880 -5 0 - 1875 -5 0 5 1977 -4 0 - 1961 -4 0 - 1917 -4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1934 -14 0 2 1985 -8 0 - 1933 -8 0 3 1982 -7 0 - 1943 -7 0 4 1936 -4 0 - 1935 -4 0 5 1994 -2 0 - 1977 -2 0 - 1963 -2 0 - 1961 -2 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 28 minutes ago, bluewave said: It can’t be UHI since Philly and Newark had top 5 all-time cold as recently as the 1980s and early 1990s. I just think the trajectory of the Arctic outbreaks from 77 to 94 favored areas to the north, west, and south of NYC. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1934 -11 0 2 1984 -7 0 - 1982 -7 0 3 1985 -6 0 - 1899 -6 0 4 1994 -5 0 - 1963 -5 0 - 1880 -5 0 - 1875 -5 0 5 1977 -4 0 - 1961 -4 0 - 1917 -4 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through DecClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1934 -14 0 2 1985 -8 0 - 1933 -8 0 3 1982 -7 0 - 1943 -7 0 4 1936 -4 0 - 1935 -4 0 5 1994 -2 0 - 1977 -2 0 - 1963 -2 0 - 1961 -2 0 Those -7s and -8s from EWR and PHL in the 80s are absolutely amazing and show how truly cold the 80s really were, regardless of whether it snowed or not-- especially the month of January! The reason I wondered about the Poughkeepsie to NYC relationship is that isn't our coldest air usually coming from the north (draining down the Hudson Valley) and isn't Poughkeepsie just about due north of NYC? So you'd think if Poughkeepsie was historically cold, NYC would be too? It is amazing that Newark was -8 in 1985 and NYC "only": got down to -2. That was the last time JFK went below zero too. So JFK's streak has lasted even longer than NYC's (and JFK radiates much better than NYC does which makes that odd.) That -7 at Newark in 1982 is also absolutely wild-- NYC only got down to 0 that winter. Of course the April blizzard was very memorable, so the cold that season was amazing too. Philly got to -7 in 1984? I know that was a cold winter, but I don't recall at 0 degree temps in NYC that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Another strong storm will bring rain and wind to the region later tomorrow into Saturday. The storm should bring a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts. In addition, the temperature will again surge into the 50s across the region. Coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely. Winds could gust past 50 mph. Meanwhile, a genuine Arctic air mass will continue to advance deeper into the Continental U.S. over coming days. Severe cold is likely in the affected region. This cold air will likely come eastward in modified fashion. There is a chance that the low temperature could fall into the teens in New York City during the middle of next week. Prospects for at least some snowfall could also increase following the coming weekend. One such opportunity exists for January 16-17. Filtering for teleconnections (AO -3.5 to -1.5, NAO-, and PNA+ as currently forecast by the GEFS), there were 9 storms that brought 2" or more snow to at least one of the following cities during January 5-25, 1950-2023: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, or Washington, DC. Those cities fared as follows: Boston: 2" or more: 67%; 4" or more: 44%; 6" or more: 11% New York City: 2" or more: 22%; 4" or more: 11%; 6" or more: 11% Philadelphia: 2" or more: 33%; 4" or more: 11%; 6" or more: 11% Washington, DC: 2" or more: 22%; 4" or more: 11%; 6" or more: 11% The 6"+ storm was the legendary January 1996 blizzard. Developments in coming days will be crucial in determining whether this latest opportunity for snowfall will be realized or if the region's snow drought will continue. Both options remain on the table. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.97°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The SOI was +7.73 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.147 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 9 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.284 (RMM). The January 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.929 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.6° (0.9° above normal). 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 37 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Weeklies are cold for February I like the cold February idea too, but let's wait until the last week of January to look at these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Those -7s and -8s from EWR and PHL in the 80s are absolutely amazing and show how truly cold the 80s really were, regardless of whether it snowed or not-- especially the month of January! The reason I wondered about the Poughkeepsie to NYC relationship is that isn't our coldest air usually coming from the north (draining down the Hudson Valley) and isn't Poughkeepsie just about due north of NYC? So you'd think if Poughkeepsie was historically cold, NYC would be too? It is amazing that Newark was -8 in 1985 and NYC "only": got down to -2. That was the last time JFK went below zero too. So JFK's streak has lasted even longer than NYC's (and JFK radiates much better than NYC does which makes that odd.) That -7 at Newark in 1982 is also absolutely wild-- NYC only got down to 0 that winter. Of course the April blizzard was very memorable, so the cold that season was amazing too. Philly got to -7 in 1984? I know that was a cold winter, but I don't recall at 0 degree temps in NYC that winter. The Arctic outbreaks from 77-94 were very memorable back in Long Beach. January 1985 was the greatest display of Arctic sea smoke I ever saw on the Long Beach boardwalk. Lows near 0° and westerly gusts 40-50 mph. What I loved about Long Beach was that there were always people on the boardwalk in the most extreme weather. During the January 2004 Arctic outbreak there was a guy windsurfing in a wetsuit. Then I saw a jogger on the boardwalk in a lightweight track running suit. The most extreme was a guy on the LB boardwalk by Lincoln during Sandy only 15 minutes before that section of boardwalk collapsed into the ocean. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 FOOTBALL: I haven't kept up with the Jan posts... so I hope this is not redundant. Brought this up as an interesting aside. Kansas City 8PM Sat... 2m temps approximately -3 and WCI -20 to -25 Buffalo: 1PM Sunday snow squalls possibly just north of Orchard Park... but big amounts. Heard talk of moving the game to CLE or maybe DET? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishcast_hater Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Perhaps the cold air won’t modify as much now that a good portion of the country has snow pack due to the past 2 storms. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: it's notable that it hasn't gotten lower than -2 since 1943 lol, do you think that will ever happen again? That -8 in 1943 really stands out like a sore thumb, I know we all see maps of the -15 from February 1934 but what kind of pattern caused that -8 in 1943? I know we had some very cold winters both during WW1 and WW2..... PS I noticed something Chris..... in 1994 Poughkeepsie got down to -20, but "only" to -15 in 1943..... while NYC got down to -8 in 1943 but "only" -2 in 1994.... is the difference because of UHI..... in other words, should 1994 have gotten colder than 1943 were it not for UHI, like it did in Poughkeepsie? Link to map for Feb 15, 1943. Toronto (downtown) -21F equalled lowest in Feb 1934 (these were lowest values after end of 19th century when in a rural setting weather station reached -25 to -27 several times. http://wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1943&maand=02&dag=15&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 14 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Link to map for Feb 15, 1943. Toronto (downtown) -21F equalled lowest in Feb 1934 (these were lowest values after end of 19th century when in a rural setting weather station reached -25 to -27 several times. http://wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=1943&maand=02&dag=15&uur=1200&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref Wow that's interesting that both Arctic outbreaks were in the middle of February! One feature of our modified climate is how February has warmed up more than January has and our coldest temperatures have moved from February into January (and likely most snowfall also.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Arctic outbreaks from 77-94 were very memorable back in Long Beach. January 1985 was the greatest display of Arctic sea smoke I ever saw on the Long Beach boardwalk. Lows near 0° and westerly gusts 40-50 mph. What I loved about Long Beach was that there were always people on the boardwalk in the most extreme weather. During the January 2004 Arctic outbreak there was a guy windsurfing in a wetsuit. Then I saw a jogger on the boardwalk in a lightweight track running suit. The most extreme was a guy on the LB boardwalk by Lincoln during Sandy only 15 minutes before that section of boardwalk collapsed into the ocean. The polar bear swimmers must have had a fun time in 2004 lol. That entire month was frigid! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 2 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: Another strong storm will bring rain and wind to the region later tomorrow into Saturday. The storm should bring a general 0.50"-1.50" rainfall with locally higher amounts. In addition, the temperature will again surge into the 50s across the region. Coastal flooding and beach erosion are likely. Winds could gust past 50 mph. Meanwhile, a genuine Arctic air mass will continue to advance deeper into the Continental U.S. over coming days. Severe cold is likely in the affected region. This cold air will likely come eastward in modified fashion. There is a chance that the low temperature could fall into the teens in New York City during the middle of next week. Prospects for at least some snowfall could also increase following the coming weekend. One such opportunity exists for January 16-17. Filtering for teleconnections (AO -3.5 to -1.5, NAO-, and PNA+ as currently forecast by the GEFS), there were 9 storms that brought 2" or more snow to at least one of the following cities during January 5-25, 1950-2023: Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, or Washington, DC. Those cities fared as follows: Boston: 2" or more: 67%; 4" or more: 44%; 6" or more: 11% New York City: 2" or more: 22%; 4" or more: 11%; 6" or more: 11% Philadelphia: 2" or more: 33%; 4" or more: 11%; 6" or more: 11% Washington, DC: 2" or more: 22%; 4" or more: 11%; 6" or more: 11% The 6"+ storm was the legendary January 1996 blizzard. Developments in coming days will be crucial in determining whether this latest opportunity for snowfall will be realized or if the region's snow drought will continue. Both options remain on the table. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was +1.9°C for the week centered around January 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +1.38°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +1.97°C. A basinwide El Niño event is ongoing. The SOI was +7.73 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.147 today. Strong blocking in the final week of November, as occurred this year, has often been followed by frequent blocking in December and January. On January 9 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.284 (RMM). The January 8-adjusted amplitude was 0.929 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 63% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal January (1991-2020 normal). January will likely finish with a mean temperature near 34.6° (0.9° above normal). Don, I like stats... but these are depressing for NYC... when I keep reading these NYC stats... it's like it almost never snows in the city. I accept them as is and hoping we can expand the sample size soon. In the meantime, not sure if anyone noticed that Don is projecting a warmer than normal Jan... but only maybe about a degree or so above. The reason that is important... the first 11 days are averaging almost +5 in CP. That means some noticeably brrrr weather is coming to getnthat average down to only +1 or so. Will check back in the morning. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 25 minutes ago, wdrag said: Don, I like stats... but these are depressing for NYC... when I keep reading these NYC stats... it's like it almost never snows in the city. I accept them as is and hoping we can expand the sample size soon. In the meantime, not sure if anyone noticed that Don is projecting a warmer than normal Jan... but only maybe about a degree or so above. The reason that is important... the first 11 days are averaging almost +5 in CP. That means some noticeably brrrr weather is coming to getnthat average down to only +1 or so. Will check back in the morning. I noticed Walt and was thinking same as you. Going to be some good "offsetting" cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 27 minutes ago, wdrag said: Don, I like stats... but these are depressing for NYC... when I keep reading these NYC stats... it's like it almost never snows in the city. I accept them as is and hoping we can expand the sample size soon. In the meantime, not sure if anyone noticed that Don is projecting a warmer than normal Jan... but only maybe about a degree or so above. The reason that is important... the first 11 days are averaging almost +5 in CP. That means some noticeably brrrr weather is coming to getnthat average down to only +1 or so. Will check back in the morning. I agree. The sample size of these events is small, which is unfortunate. Hopefully, the guidance will move toward a more impactful snow event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 36 minutes ago, wdrag said: Don, I like stats... but these are depressing for NYC... when I keep reading these NYC stats... it's like it almost never snows in the city. I accept them as is and hoping we can expand the sample size soon. In the meantime, not sure if anyone noticed that Don is projecting a warmer than normal Jan... but only maybe about a degree or so above. The reason that is important... the first 11 days are averaging almost +5 in CP. That means some noticeably brrrr weather is coming to getnthat average down to only +1 or so. Will check back in the morning. After last year's nearly snowless winter and this year's very slow start, it's easy to forget that 2000-2020 was the 2nd snowiest 20-year period in NYC's history (since 1869) and in New Brunswick, too, even with warmer than normal winters, on average. Presumably we got a bit lucky with better patterns and big storms which really helped those averages. Not quite sure, though, if that was somewhat of a statistical aberration and now we're poised for an era of less snow, as one would expect more often than not with a warming climate and warmer winters. We just don't have enough data yet... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The 18Z Euro Ensemble Mean snowfall axis moved back NW a decent amount vs. 12Z, perhaps indicating that the suppressed 12Z Op run was a bit of an outlier. It's possible. Hopefully we see a bit more consensus tonight, although as many pros have said, we might not get a great handle on Tuesday's event until we know the outcome of Friday's big storm and get the energy for Tuesday into the RAOB network so we can start with better initial conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Dropped to 31° at 745pm Cloud cover increased and rose to 41° now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannynyc Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Sneaky snow shot on the 14th. Something to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Cmc about to show a big storm next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Pretty good look here. I guess the models were waiting for you all to go to sleep. Of course GGEM is extremely amped up changing the snow to rain in coastal areas. WX/PT 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 This pattern is crazy on the gfs and cmc 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GFS classic Miller A with great track and temps in the mid/upper 20s for the whole storm, so this is one storm where we might get >10:1 ratios - see 10:1 and Kuchera maps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 While CMC is a hugger with lots of mixed precip after the initial snow thump and much faster than the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 First time NYC hasn’t had a winter high temperature below 37° by January 11th. BTV tied its record warmest low max at 25°. POU also set a new record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Dec 1 to Jan 11 Missing Count 1 2024-01-11 37 0 2 1975-01-11 36 0 3 1987-01-11 34 0 4 2013-01-11 32 0 - 1997-01-11 32 0 - 1941-01-11 32 0 Time Series Summary for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Dec 1 to Jan 11 Missing Count 1 2024-01-11 25 0 - 2002-01-11 25 0 3 2000-01-11 21 0 4 2007-01-11 20 0 - 1998-01-11 20 0 - 1987-01-11 20 0 - 1975-01-11 20 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Max Temperature Dec 1 to Jan 11 Missing Count 1 2024-01-11 33 0 2 1931-01-11 32 32 3 2002-01-11 31 0 - 1932-01-11 31 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 10 hours ago, donsutherland1 said: I agree. The sample size of these events is small, which is unfortunate. Hopefully, the guidance will move toward a more impactful snow event. Thanks Don, it's shocking how important the PNA is for our area, even with substantial blocking in place. We had the PNA dominated pattern from 2000 through 2018 which must have added in the plethora of 6+events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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