Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 GFS and Icon did not have enough cold air to work with next weekend despite the low cutting across S VA on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: This pic needs to come out at least once this year. 'ole great-grandpa Blizz showing the way for future generations... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Is the 6.1 a bit further east in PSU land? 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: He is farther East but not 100% sure exact spot. Red Dot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS and Icon did not have enough cold air to work with next weekend despite the low cutting across S VA on the GFS. Let me get my wife outside the day before to cool the atmosphere. Nothing colder than her shoulder when I'm around. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I think PA south of 80 is in for a nice event here. Obviously know the local climo, ridges and higher elevation zones will do better as usual. Other than the typical upslope zones near the Laurels, I think there may be two max zones, one further north in Central PA with higher ratios where there is some enhanced lift along the arctic boundary where the moisture transport hits that brick wall...and one further south (south of 70) near the best FGEN and deeper moisture. These two zones I could see 4-6 with local 8" totals. In between probably a general 2-5" event. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 7 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 'ole great-grandpa Blizz showing the way for future generations... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: GFS and Icon did not have enough cold air to work with next weekend despite the low cutting across S VA on the GFS. GFS with a 998mb low exiting off the Delaware coast and the entire state of PA is rain. Only snow is up in the Catskills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 RAP it up 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 RAP it upLook at me becoming a winner. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Back at 10:00 on NWS disco they seemed to indicate that WWA's were more likely in the current watch area. We're only 7 hours away from the start and they haven't updated the watch. I wonder if in the back office there is a war going on between METS on which decision to make?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: RAP it up The Rap is going to have the main band in NY after a few more runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: The Rap is going to have the main band in NY after a few more runs. Looks like it's trending towards a bum rap for the southern tier. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Ukie same idea. Not Kuchera however Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Looks like it's trending towards a bum rap for the southern tier. The old saying about being in the bullseye too early. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Gem takes next weekend thru central PA, so it rains. Poenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 I've come to bring you hrpes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The old saying about being in the bullseye too early. That goes for next weekend too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Just now, Rd9108 said: I've come to bring you hrpes It's a short term Canadian, sooo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 Sunny and a warmer than expected 42 at noon. Some models show the precip arriving as rain here now. (maybe it did previously, I just noticed this morning) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Sunny and a warmer than expected 42 at noon. Some models show the precip arriving as rain here now. (maybe it did previously, I just noticed this morning) Yea, I had commented many did (yesterday) and questioned some of the overstated ratios for the whole event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 2-3" in Harrisburg NWS saysSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 The give an example of IMBY what we thought was the red hot HRRR was just denounced as awful for the last event on the MA board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 @Bubbler86 @mitchnick @Coop_Mason MU has high confidence in his map - congratulations! 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @Bubbler86 @mitchnick @Coop_Mason MU has high confidence in his map - congratulations! Here you go, snowfans! I've released my Storm Outlook Map for tonight's #winterstorm. The track of this storm has been very consistent, so I have high confidence in my map. I expect a general 3-5" across the region with locally higher amounts of 6-7" in the heaviest bands.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 my thoughts 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: @Bubbler86 @mitchnick @Coop_Mason MU has high confidence in his map - congratulations! I'm in there too, but its hard to know where those bands will set up so we'll see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, anotherman said: I'm in there too, but its hard to know where those bands will set up so we'll see. You sure are, I'm sorry for the oversight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 my thoughts So you like the two band idea as well? The northern band isn't huge 20-30 miles wide. That's going to be the hard one to pinpoint Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 My map for this. Tried to make a compromise in blends but perhaps on the bolder side. I anticipate CTP needing another tier or so of advisories in the central and upping at least the western half of the watches to warnings. 3-5” amounts should be common in the main swath. Big question is in or near the area I hashed. I was going to get cute and try to highlight two distinct areas but I’d probably need a bigger map. Any rate I feel the hashed area has the best chance to see an embedded swath of 5-6”+ and/or local totals of 6+. Best 700mb forcing is in there coupled with 700mb temps in the low minus teens. The fluff bomb potential is high with that. The southern Laurels will have that plus the benefit of some extra upslope forcing and colder surface temps.. hence the distinct 5-8” I anticipate there. The other snowfall max is probably somewhere in the northern Mid-Atl (northern VA/northern MD, where better 850mb forcing will be. That won’t yield the bigger ratios like the 700mb dynamics that should be residing in southern PA. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 16 Share Posted February 16 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: My map for this. Tried to make a compromise in blends but perhaps on the bolder side. I anticipate CTP needing another tier or so of advisories in the central and upping at least the western half of the watches to warnings. 3-5” amounts should be common in the main swath. Big question is in or near the area I hashed. I was going to get cute and try to highlight two distinct areas but I’d probably need a bigger map. Any rate I feel the hashed area has the best chance to see an embedded swath of 5-6”+ and/or local totals of 6+. Best 700mb forcing is in there coupled with 700mb temps in the low minus teens. The fluff bomb potential is high with that. The southern Laurels will have that plus the benefit of some extra upslope forcing and colder surface temps.. hence the distinct 5-8” I anticipate there. The other snowfall max is probably somewhere in the northern Mid-Atl (northern VA/northern MD, where better 850mb forcing will be. That won’t yield the bigger ratios like the 700mb dynamics that should be residing in southern PA. I appreciate your dedicated effort to extend the hash just far enough east to include me. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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