DDweatherman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, pasnownut said: didnt you ask for this exact thing to happen a few hours ago? If so, keep wishing...you're on a roll. Sometimes all you gotta do is ask 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: GFS with a much better look and evolution this go'round. What's crazy is we're already under four days until this event. Won't be long until the Meso's are in range ha. Nothing better during the winter than having one event lead into the next. I look forward to extrapolating NAM runs for the next 24 hrs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Weird how the Gfs really slows down the slp from 84hrs onward. Sorta like it's waiting for something to explode. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: I look forward to extrapolating NAM runs for the next 24 hrs..... Come on. Guys like you and me are too good for that... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Weird how the Gfs really slows down the slp from 84hrs onward. Sorta like it's waiting for something to explode. Lol verbatim still a little too strung out for much upside (also based on flow at upper levels), but surely can be something workable/plowable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 @Mount Joy Snowman - MU's final tally was 4". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Dang. Gfs is advertising cold shot after cold shot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 its really just a NS vort riding the boundary and hopefully gets some help from SS. get that NS energy to slow down/dive in a tad more, and maybe just maybe we snow on snow in same week. How cool is that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Lord knows we love the overnight arrival too, don't we. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Come on. Guys like you and me are too good for that... lol...I'm in good company with you (and many others here). So much fun to be trackin again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Ggem is serving shredded wheat for the weekend. We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, AccuChris said: I really like the CTP people and they do a bang up job but this storm was not their finest hour. Yesterday they had my area in 4-8” with WSW and then last night lowered it to 3-5” and still with a warning. Im at 5” now and still have an hour or so to go. Sometimes the NWS folks lean way too heavy on the National Blend Model solution but this storm was horribly predicted via the Canadian suite of products and only late yesterday did the Euro finally catch on This was a brutal storm to get a handle on. At the time of @Blizzard of 93’s last stand on Saturday night, north central was locked for the best totals on most guidance after things were mostly pretty far north Saturday. Main question at that point was trying to nail down how much of the central and Sus Valley was going to see meaningful accumulating snow on the back end. South trend started Sunday and it was a pretty notable one but it still favored the swath near the I-80 and they issued warnings accordingly and kept watches issued to the south Sunday eve. Still fine at that point for making some tweaks as needed (adding a couple watches or downgrading some warnings to advisories) Where it really went sideways was yesterday, when everything tightened up and really went south. It’s pretty much go time at that point being under 24hrs til the event starts and now your suddenly looking at a big chunk of warned counties getting little or no snow at all, and southern counties that weren’t in a watch at all looking to be in the axis of best snowfall and warning amounts. There’s not much you can do with a big shift like that in that short of lead time. What I don’t understand is why they didn’t downgrade warnings to advisories back this way (Altoona/State College and surrounding counties), and they even inserted advisory amounts into the warning statements. I’ve never seen that before. This was a frustrating storm here, and definitely for the folks in here to my north. I’m glad a lot of the subforum scored a pretty big event out of this at least. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, mitchnick said: Ggem is serving shredded wheat for the weekend. We toss. but to the good, if one toggles through 84 w/ GFS/ICON and GEM, surface maps are plenty close enough at this range. Its all about consensus and they are plenty close for me to keep watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: its really just a NS vort riding the boundary and hopefully gets some help from SS. get that NS energy to slow down/dive in a tad more, and maybe just maybe we snow on snow in same week. How cool is that? If this snow makes it until Saturday...I'll be surprised. I'd love to see it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Shame timing on the Gem is off on this. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gdps&p=prateptype-imp&rh=2024021312&fh=132&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I need to get some work done, but nooners overall did not disappoint. Happy snow day gang. Onward.......... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: If this snow makes it until Saturday...I'll be surprised. I'd love to see it though. Is what it is, and if its melted by friday and freshened up by saturday, there are far worse things in life to fret over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Is what it is, and if its melted by friday and freshened up by saturday, there are far worse things in life to fret over. Agree 100%. Sure is stunning out there now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 53 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Boston is only at 9" for the year Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Still doing better than Minneapolis, that climo station (Twin Cities) is at like 7.3” for the season and averaging +19ºF for the month to date so far. I think it might take a Jan 94 type arctic outbreak to keep them from having the warmest DJF on record at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 52 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: That makes sense. Up near Brickerville are ya? I used to fish at Speedwell quite a bit. What's your elevation? I’m at the very top of the hill at Speedwell. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I was just looking at my fuel oil usage (I shop with Shipley, they're pretty good, I like em) for this year versus last year, which I also feel was a warmer winter.Preface: I keep the thermostat at 63-65 range, which makes the bedrooms 75 or so at night. Last year from 1/3 - 2/13, I used 196 gallons. This year from about that same timeframe, 1/6 - 2/12, I used 110 gallons. My number for November and December prior are about the same in terms of lesser use this winter. I am on pace to save a thousand dollars this season versus last, which was also a warm winter. Cold winters can suck me. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I'm exhausted and unable to keep up from all the excitement. I apologize if any of this has already been mentioned. First off the snow started accumulating here almost immediately . I believe the temperature was around 37 °F when the changeover occurred. I also received the majority of my 6.5" in 5 hours . Really nice event all things considered. I love receiving a wet and heavy 6.5 In my back yard from time to time. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 27 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: I was just looking at my fuel oil usage (I shop with Shipley, they're pretty good, I like em) for this year versus last year, which I also feel was a warmer winter. Preface: I keep the thermostat at 63-65 range, which makes the bedrooms 75 or so at night. Last year from 1/3 - 2/13, I used 196 gallons. This year from about that same timeframe, 1/6 - 2/12, I used 110 gallons. My number for November and December prior are about the same in terms of lesser use this winter. I am on pace to save a thousand dollars this season versus last, which was also a warm winter. Cold winters can suck me. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Last December (2022) was 1-2 degrees BN so may be the reason for the difference. No month has been anywhere near BN this year. Feb is currently about 1.4 higher than last Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Partly sunny, quite brisk and 37 at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Ukie not yet ready to play ball for Saturday but seems like it may be close.....ish. Hard to tell from my limited view of the maps. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Partly sunny, quite brisk and 37 at noon. Still cloudy here and has dropped from 40 to 35 so snow retention is pretty good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Sunny and 39 at noon. It’s crazy bright out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 18 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Ukie not yet ready to play ball for Saturday but seems like it may be close.....ish. Hard to tell from my limited view of the maps. It did ok with today's event, but that could have been luck as it's rarely the best model on any particular storm. The king has been dethroned with nothing to replace it, so model anarchy rules. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 MDT recoded 5.9” snow today. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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