mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Icon looks ready to go boom past 180hrs on 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 https://x.com/henrymargusity/status/1754828730331975893?s=61 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coop_Mason Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, anotherman said: https://x.com/henrymargusity/status/1754828730331975893?s=61 Time for the big daddy hat? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Who is the bigger weenie - Bastardi or Margusity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, Coop_Mason said: Time for the big daddy hat? boy would that map he posted make many happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: Who is the bigger weenie - Bastardi or Margusity? tough one.....but I'm gonna give JB the nod for a "variety of reasons". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Who is the bigger weenie - Bastardi or Margusity? Glad you double checked for typos on that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Icon looks ready to go boom past 180hrs on 12z run. yeah, looks like it hits a cold brick wall and transfers far south enough to go boom over us. but thats extrapolating and wishcasting combined.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 12Z GFS with more siggy changes. Went from a 6Z cutter encroaching on PA to a low sitting in the SE at 144. Looks like it still eventually cuts several panels later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Low is blocked as it cuts but a warmer solution so far....rain in southern PA Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 PA ends up mostly dry as the weird 2X Miller B solution hits a brick wall sending qpf north....series of lows exits to the east off the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Kanook house model is a clean A that comes up and no transfer, but inland enough to keep us southers wet n not white. Northers approve. Just need the cold, and I'd take that look in a heartbeat, but again thats me wishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Canadian is a hit from state College north. Rain for PA south, but at least there is precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, mitchnick said: Canadian is a hit from state College north. Rain for PA south, but at least there is precip. one good takeaway from nooners, is that all say were gettin some.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Canadian is a hit from state College north. Rain for PA south, but at least there is precip. Almost 0 confidence in solutions right now....they are wildly erratic and seemingly change "camps" from run to run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Some really interesting statistics for Chester County that really makes you question some of the historical temperature trending data we see. Incredibly the NCEI data set for Chester County PA. Of note from 1895 through 1970 (77 years) the reported average Chester County temperatures for 73 of those 77 (95%) years is now reported as lower than any available reporting site in the county in those years. So are we to assume all stations in Chester County were faulty for 95% of the reporting observations through 1970?? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 34 at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 12z Gefs looks good for next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Ukie has next week a wound up rainstorm centered in western TN Monday 12z fwiw. But Ukie's always drunk at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: Who is the bigger weenie - Bastardi or Margusity? yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Who has the bigger weenie - Bastardi or Margusity? Naughty naughty.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 12Z Euro followed the GFS lead and slowed down the progression for 2/13 system while also keeping it well south of the area (again.) The slower movement missed the opening to come north like last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: 12Z Euro followed the GFS lead and slowed down the progression for 2/13 system while also keeping it well south of the area (again.) The slower movement missed the opening to come north like last run. Yep. Figured that would happen once the Euro was showing a closed low in Texas. Closed 5H lows along or near the Gulf never come north unless you have northern stream energy at the perfect spot pulling them north. Much better odds with an open 5H low. Of course, once to WVA or Western VA and to our south, close em' on up and we'll rock. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 35 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Yep. Figured that would happen once the Euro was showing a closed low in Texas. Closed 5H lows along or near the Gulf never come north unless you have northern stream energy at the perfect spot pulling them north. Much better odds with an open 5H low. Of course, once to WVA or Western VA and to our south, close em' on up and we'll rock. That is a good call. That is also a big factor in its slower speed as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: That is a good call. That is also a big factor in its slower speed as depicted. Eps with alot of Snowy solutions for next week. Best run in a while in regards to a specific threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Eps with alot of Snowy solutions for next week. Best run in a while in regards to a specific threat I was just looking at it...the timing is not what I expected re: the 12th in to the 13th. It is almost like some of the members have a follow up wave. Maybe it is just timing differences. I cannot see each member's panel (did not look at MA.) The mean is in Maine before some of the accums in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 20 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Eps with alot of Snowy solutions for next week. Best run in a while in regards to a specific threat I just saw the panels. Some real big hits on about 25% of the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I just the panels. Some real big hits on about 25% of the members. Yes. I was a little surprised how many big hits there was. Looks like most are a Monday night into Daytime Tuesday deal. Definitely a thread the needle type deal. The air mass is trash leading in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 The record highs of 61/62 for Feb. 9/10 at MDT may have to be put on notice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 22 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Eps with alot of Snowy solutions for next week. Best run in a while in regards to a specific threat He!! Yeah it is! End of the run gives some hope too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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