mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 17 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: @mitchnick should be happy to see that the 0z ensembles are all looking good at the end of their 15/16 day runs. The EPS backed off on the week ridging “yellow”. Now the closest yellow is in western Iowa at the end of the EPS. All 3 continue to show strong Greenland blocking with the STJ undercutting. Yes, all the ensembles have, so it looks like we may be in the process of winning that battle. But we're still losing the war for snow since all 3 ensembles at the end of their runs still have the bulk of the precip in the south missing us. There is still time for that period to be a legit threat, of course, but we better start seeing runs showing a better ridge in the west and precip spreading north soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 47 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Yes, all the ensembles have, so it looks like we may be in the process of winning that battle. But we're still losing the war for snow since all 3 ensembles at the end of their runs still have the bulk of the precip in the south missing us. There is still time for that period to be a legit threat, of course, but we better start seeing runs showing a better ridge in the west and precip spreading north soon. So, you’re saying it’s right where we want it at this range according to my handbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: So, you’re saying it’s right where we want it at this range according to my handbook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 Just now, Bubbler86 said: I'd like a chance... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Listen, I agree that this stretch sucks (good Maple sugaring weather though for the next few days). And I agree nothing is guaranteed. However, I am going to go with what many have said before. If we can't get snow with the look we have for late February/early March with a -NAO, +PNA, El Nino, Strat warm, what are we doing here? If we fail, Phillies baseball is not far away and that's fine with me. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 13 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: So, you’re saying it’s right where we want it at this range according to my handbook. I can't recall if that's the right page of the handbook since I ripped that page out of mine in disgust years ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 22 minutes ago, Voyager said: I'd like a chance... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Crisp morning low here of 26 with McDonalds breakfast already in the belly. Should be a ‘beaut. Feels like a take the kids to the park kind of day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 10 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Yeah, pretty much... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 23 minutes ago, Voyager said: Yeah, pretty much... Your already in Arizona...you don't need to wonder any further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, anotherman said: Listen, I agree that this stretch sucks (good Maple sugaring weather though for the next few days). And I agree nothing is guaranteed. However, I am going to go with what many have said before. If we can't get snow with the look we have for late February/early March with a -NAO, +PNA, El Nino, Strat warm, what are we doing here? If we fail, Phillies baseball is not far away and that's fine with me. Go Phillies!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Our beautiful stretch of February weather looks to continue for most of the next week with average to above temps and sunshine much of the upcoming week. The rumored pattern change to colder....if it occurs is still at least 10 or more days away. Records for today: High 63 (1991) / Low 1 below (1898) / Precipitation 1.35" (1920) / Snow 9.1" (1995) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Little surpised Bliz didn't post Icon at the end of it 0z run. Similar evolution as Euro but looks a tad colder with an overall better setup. Of course, 12z will be out shortly on Pivotal which may diss the whole idea. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 33 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: Our beautiful stretch of February weather looks to continue for most of the next week with average to above temps and sunshine much of the upcoming week. The rumored pattern change to colder....if it occurs is still at least 10 or more days away. Records for today: High 63 (1991) / Low 1 below (1898) / Precipitation 1.35" (1920) / Snow 9.1" (1995) MDT has only seen the teens 5 nights for the entire Winter season so far....very possible they add one on this week (not a forecast, I never trust them fully) so colder is here now. Just not the way we all want it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Dose anyone know if @Blizzard of 93has a drinking problem? He may need our prayers atm. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12z Icon is suppressed but not necessarily completely. I think it’s just delaying it by 12hrs, give or take, but too early to say for sure. Let's see what other guidance says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Lol, I do not know that particular snowman…! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 21 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 12z Icon is suppressed but not necessarily completely. I think it’s just delaying it by 12hrs, give or take, but too early to say for sure. Let's see what other guidance says. Hopefully the other guidance continues to push the 13th chance south. Just a day or 2 ago it was showing as a cutter on the long range GFS & ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 15 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Lol, I do not know that particular snowman…! At least you realized he was a snowman. He sure had me fooled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Terrible Gfs run post 2/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Terrible Gfs run post 2/14. It really went off the rails this run. Hopefully it gets a clue in the coming days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Good thing the GEFS is still on track with the better look on day 10 & 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Should hit 50 today. 47 at 1. High was 46. Next weekend looks very spring like. Showed and 60s. Growing season starting up I presume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, Yardstickgozinya said: Dose anyone know if @Blizzard of 93has a drinking problem? He may need our prayers atm. That was me after too many vodka on the rocks combined with watching Juwan Howard coached Michigan basketball. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, canderson said: Should hit 50 today. 47 at 1. High was 46. Next weekend looks very spring like. Showed and 60s. Growing season starting up I presume. I wouldn’t recommend planting anything now with what looks to be on the way for the second half of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Canadian ensemble looks good at 10 & continues through day 16. Look at that blocking on day 16… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 9 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I wouldn’t recommend planting anything now with what looks to be on the way for the second half of February. Def not planting but things I the ground should start waking up middle of this next week. It happens even when we aren’t in a torch - sun is quite warm these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 11 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Canadian ensemble looks good at 10 & continues through day 16. Look at that blocking on day 16… Too much of a good thing on day 16 imho. But it will either weaken as we approach and be ok or get so strong as to develop a full latitude ridge like what we are in now. Believe me, anything is possible despite what these silicon boxes are spitting out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: I wouldn’t recommend planting anything now with what looks to be on the way for the second half of February. I am guessing our lows this week rival anything else we get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, Bubbler86 said: MDT has only seen the teens 5 nights for the entire Winter season so far....very possible they add one on this week (not a forecast, I never trust them fully) so colder is here now. Just not the way we all want it. I had my first sub-freezing night in nearly 2 weeks this morning. Several more incoming this week. Flip side...normal high for today in Lanco is 39. It's currently 48, which I would consider a well AN departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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