Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Just now, Atomixwx said: Wait. Are we cancelling the remainder? Groundhog hunt is Friday. You gotta get up early. Any interested parties can meet up at Gio's rib shack in Woodland. Also, any successful hunt will be returned to said rib shack because that sauce is the only thing I imagine can make woodchuck taste good. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk I am not, my comments were more about the struggles of trying to do LR forecasting. A lot of LR forecasts I saw, here and other areas, really focused on late Jan and all of Feb for the hounds of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 22 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: How does the monthly precipitation total rank for January 2024? We are now at #4 wettest January behind only 1979 9.72 1978 9.28 1996 8.20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I am not, my comments were more about the struggles of trying to do LR forecasting. A lot of LR forecasts I saw, here and other areas, really focused on late Jan and all of Feb for the hounds of winter. That's what I thought. It's hard to understand negativity after two weeks where I believe everybody cashed-in? Did anybody get shafted? I don't know where my area stands for the year, N, AN, or BN for snow, and a lot of that is because I'm still relatively new to the area, but I'd have to grade winter here so far as a B, with hopes for another brief stretch late February to top things off, but it seems like others have conceded. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 With most spots seeing over an inch of rain yesterday we are now up to 7.55" of rain this month our 4th wettest January on record - so in the last 2 months we have recorded 16.32" of rain and melted snow. That is about 1/3 our normal annual precipitation. The good news it looks dry this week with seasonable temps near normal. Colder weather looks likely by next weekend. Records for today: High 69 (1947) / Low 7 below (1928) / Rain 1.46" (1990) / Snow 13.0" (1966) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 8 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: We are now at #4 wettest January behind only 1979 9.72 1978 9.28 1996 8.20 Odd 78/79-La Nada 77/78-weak Nino 95/96-weak Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 9 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: That's what I thought. It's hard to understand negativity after two weeks where I believe everybody cashed-in? Did anybody get shafted? I don't know where my area stands for the year, N, AN, or BN for snow, and a lot of that is because I'm still relatively new to the area, but I'd have to grade winter here so far as a B, with hopes for another brief stretch late February to top things off, but it seems like others have conceded. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk I personally did not see a lot of conceding but if one takes the LR Ensembles to heart, 2 of the 3 show very little in the way of "winter cold" for our area over the next 2-3 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 The week of winter was great and lifts it to-date to C-. It's not been cold at all so for it to become even decent we need much more, even if it's dry but cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 20 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: That's what I thought. It's hard to understand negativity after two weeks where I believe everybody cashed-in? Did anybody get shafted? I don't know where my area stands for the year, N, AN, or BN for snow, and a lot of that is because I'm still relatively new to the area, but I'd have to grade winter here so far as a B, with hopes for another brief stretch late February to top things off, but it seems like others have conceded. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Hope your vacation was a good one. Nice to see you back. I'm just going to say that if I didn't look at weather maps to the degree that I do, I'd say that its been a HELL of a lot better than last year. While I love the big dogs, the realist in me is happy for what we've had in the last 2 weeks, and it feels normal"ish" around here. Northern Pa has been MUCH better than last year. I'm ok w/ where we are so far and like you hope Feb delivers. and this is my glass half full stance, and I do realize places like Tug and NE states are struggling a bit. Overall...still better than last year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Hope your vacation was a good one. Nice to see you back. I'm just going to say that if I didn't look at weather maps to the degree that I do, I'd say that its been a HELL of a lot better than last year. While I love the big dogs, the realist in me is happy for what we've had in the last 2 weeks, and it feels normal"ish" around here. Northern Pa has been MUCH better than last year. I'm ok w/ where we are so far and like you hope Feb delivers. That's about where I am. I enjoy the bigguns (Oh!) but the nickel and dimes are what I enjoy the most because they don't necessarily cripple plans and it still adds up to winter. Even yesterday, up here we received probably an inch and a half, it's still there. And before the two big weeks earlier in the month, up here we had about four 3-4 inch events. It's been a lot better. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 hours ago, ChescoWx said: We are now at #4 wettest January behind only 1979 9.72 1978 9.28 1996 8.20 Thanks for the "backyard stats".... Chesco. Just ignore both of them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 27 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: We are now at #4 wettest January behind only 1979 9.72 1978 9.28 1996 8.20 What was the predominant p-type in those three Januaries? What has been the predominant p-type in this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 What was the predominant p-type in those three Januaries? What has been the predominant p-type in this one?Plot twist: It's been piss.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 11 minutes ago, canderson said: The week of winter was great and lifts it to-date to C-. It's not been cold at all so for it to become even decent we need much more, even if it's dry but cold. I agree with a C- thus far. Just no sustained cold, but with that said, I have measured snowfall on eight different days at my place this year. So that's......something ha. Also, MDT is guaranteed an above average January snowfall. I'm not expecting much of anything over the next couple of weeks but if the end of February and early March can deliver we can maybe move into B territory. I think the northern part of the state has done much better relative to expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 4 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Plot twist: It's been piss. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Personally I’m not sure a January with 6” of precip falling primarily in the form of rain is much more preferable to a January with 6” of precip falling primarily in the form of cat piss, the most vile substance discovered to date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 12 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: That's about where I am. I enjoy the bigguns (Oh!) but the nickel and dimes are what I enjoy the most because they don't necessarily cripple plans and it still adds up to winter. Even yesterday, up here we received probably an inch and a half, it's still there. And before the two big weeks earlier in the month, up here we had about four 3-4 inch events. It's been a lot better. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk I think just one decent snow event is better than last winter down here. Temp wise though as to seasonal average departure, it has been warmer at MDT this winter. Last year through the end of Jan, MDT was running at a departure of the 3.85 AN vs the current departure of 4.6 AN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Odd 78/79-La Nada 77/78-weak Nino 95/96-weak NinaHasn't this been a really weird ninoSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 10 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Hasn't this been a really weird nino Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Yep. From the start, but hopefully not to the finish. Not that I have anything against the people of Finland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Effects of MJO on Afghanistan PERMALINK Thanks for a fascinating read. I'm working on agricultural development in Afghanistan. A wet winter had been predicted - putting an end to a long drought usually blamed on La Niña - but so far there has been no precipitation at all. Could that be related to the MJO effect? Unfortunately your maps don't cover Afghanistan. REPLY SUBMITTED BY KLUIJVER, ROBERT ON MON, 01/15/2024 - 09:06 I think it's challenging to… PERMALINK I think it's challenging to say whether a seasonal forecast is a "bust" or a "failure" in mid-January. Also keep in mind these outlooks are probabilistic, so they will not happen 100% of the time. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/january-2024-el-nino-update-birds#:~:text=El Niño is very likely,for the next few months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Not that I have anything against the people of Finland. Screw em. LolSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Effects of MJO on Afghanistan Pretty sure MJO was the name of that colossal bomb Trump dropped on the Taliban back in 2017. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Pretty sure MJO was the name of that colossal bomb Trump dropped on the Taliban back in 2017. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk I found it interesting that someone posted on the NWS official site looking for reasons why El Nino was not "working." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 I found it interesting that someone posted on the NWS official site looking for reasons why El Nino was not "working." Maybe it hasn't been paid?Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Daffodils are starting to push up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Lot of theatrics with transferring lows with the Feb 5th event on the 12Z GFS but still missing one major performer even if it comes farther north....real cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Lot of theatrics with transferring lows with the Feb 5th event on the 12Z GFS but still missing one major performer even if it comes farther north....real cold air. Nothing to get it north. 500mb has a closed low that's stuck keeping slp stalled in the SE until the NE gyre (thanks Larry Cosgrove) pulls out and lets it escape to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Nothing to get it north. 500mb has a closed low that's stuck keeping slp stalled in the SE until the NE gyre (thanks Larry Cosgrove) pulls out and lets it escape to the east. If it does come North from an inland SE US location, where will the cold air come from? It is technically cold enough on those panels and there is some CAD, but any sort of southerly component with a storm approaching from the SW would ruin the column anyway. We would need it to maintain distinct different areas of lowest pressure and get off to our SE before a Fujiwhara effect (thanks Sakuhei Fuhiwhara) to bring it back toward us off the ocean, so we do not lose temps. (Edit, and we need that high to not depart as quickly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 2 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: If it does come North from an inland SE US location, where will the cold air come from? It is technically cold enough on those panels and there is some CAD, but any sort of southerly component with a storm approaching from the SW would ruin the column anyway. We would need it to maintain distinct different areas of lowest pressure and get off to our SE before a Fujiwhara effect (thanks Sakuhei Fuhiwhara) to bring it back toward us off the ocean, so we do not lose temps. (Edit, and we need that high to not depart as quickly) Iow, we don't have a shot. Agreed. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Actually, this started out as a threat on the Euro when it showed a traditional Carolina Crusher. If it is going to crush someone, I think it still favors the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 Bubbler's Jacksonville Juggernaut is a wound up sub 990mb beast. At least there's that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 29 Share Posted January 29 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Iow, we don't have a shot. Agreed. Lol I was looking for a way to get another Met's name in there. LOL. But as progged it is a dead deal on the GFS and CMC unless it comes at us from the East in some manner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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