Bubbler86 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 High of 54 here today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Hopefully the Happy Hour GFS delivers more Christmas goodies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 Are flood watches gonna be posted again? NWS has me getting possibly 3" of rain till Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Are flood watches gonna be posted again? NWS has me getting possibly 3" of rain till Wednesday evening. Strictly speaking models, that seems quite high. Some progs have you getting under 1'. Others are 1-2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Strictly speaking models, that seems quite high. Some progs have you getting under 1'. Others are 1-2'. Tonight Patchy drizzle and fog after 4am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 38. East wind around 6 mph. Tuesday Rain with patchy drizzle before 7am, then rain after 7am. Patchy fog before 7am. High near 45. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday Night Rain. Low around 43. Southeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Wednesday Rain. High near 50. Southeast wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Wednesday Night Rain likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. East wind 6 to 9 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Thursday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Tonight Patchy drizzle and fog after 4am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 38. East wind around 6 mph. Tuesday Rain with patchy drizzle before 7am, then rain after 7am. Patchy fog before 7am. High near 45. Southeast wind 5 to 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Tuesday Night Rain. Low around 43. Southeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Wednesday Rain. High near 50. Southeast wind 8 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Wednesday Night Rain likely, mainly before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 43. East wind 6 to 9 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible. Thursday Their AFD sounds quite a bit different than the zones. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A large scale negative tilt upper level trough over the Mississippi Valley this Christmas afternoon will bring widespread showers to the area later tonight into into Wed. The chance of rain will taper off on Thursday. While some areas may see over an inch, the system is not as intense as the one the other week, and the rain will be spread over several days, so not expecting to see flooding at this point. The last system had a warm core and very intense warm advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Their AFD sounds quite a bit different than the zones. .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A large scale negative tilt upper level trough over the Mississippi Valley this Christmas afternoon will bring widespread showers to the area later tonight into into Wed. The chance of rain will taper off on Thursday. While some areas may see over an inch, the system is not as intense as the one the other week, and the rain will be spread over several days, so not expecting to see flooding at this point. The last system had a warm core and very intense warm advection. It doesn't match up, wth? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 1 minute ago, mahantango#1 said: It doesn't match up, wth? I think others have chimed in before, but their zones are sometimes automated I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 I think others have chimed in before, but their zones are sometimes automated I believe. Looks like they are calling for 1.68" of rain by Thu morning in Harrisburg. It's going to be spread out over multiple days though. I get a feeling we are going to be socked in with drizzle and fog for most of the time it's not raining Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 I think others have chimed in before, but their zones are sometimes automated I believe. This rain has to a god send for the heavy drought inflicted areas near you. Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 28 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: Looks like they are calling for 1.68" of rain by Thu morning in Harrisburg. It's going to be spread out over multiple days though. I get a feeling we are going to be socked in with drizzle and fog for most of the time it's not raining Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk i find this so funny just yesterday local news/weather said dry for the next weeks with mild temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 i find this so funny just yesterday local news/weather said dry for the next weeks with mild tempsWhich locals?Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 1.5" would put me over 5" for the monthSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 18z GEFS pattern & temps for day 9 through 16 continue to look workable. This should provide some chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 2 hours ago, Jns2183 said: Which locals? Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk I think it was abc27 news it was a weather guy I dont normally see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 NWS has dropped my rainfall total down to possibility 1.75. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: NWS has dropped my rainfall total down to possibility 1.75. Seems to happen a lot. We always seem to come up short with precipitation. 39 degrees looks like rain on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 T of rain overnight and 40. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 NWS has dropped my rainfall total down to possibility 1.75.They actually rose Harrisburg to 1.72" from 1.68". But I was looking at the weather briefing the whole time and not the zonal forcastSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 A foggy AM across the area followed by a pretty gloomy week ahead before sun finally returns by the final weekend of 2023. Rain chances increase toward morning tomorrow with another good soaker on the way. We should see between 1.5" and 2.0" of rain. Very mild weather continues with our temperatures remaining above freezing till the weekend. Records for today: High 67 (1964) / Low -2 (1980) / Rain 2.50" (1909) / Snow 25.0" (1909). That was the 2nd day of the 1909 Blizzard that began at 8am on Christmas Morning and lasted till 6:30am on the 26th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Rgem and Nam 3K ramping up totals a bit for tomorrow....over 2" in many central and Eastern PA areas now. HRRR still nowhere near that and Nam12 focused the heavier rains in N Central PA with 1-2" still in Central and Southeastern PA. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Rgem and Nam 3K ramping up totals a bit for tomorrow....over 2" in many central and Eastern PA areas now. HRRR still nowhere near that and Nam12 focused the heavier rains in N Central PA with 1-2" still in Central and Southeastern PA. Are you foggy down there Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Just now, Jns2183 said: Are you foggy down there Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Just a little bit in my lower area of the mountain. Hard to see up very far though as more low clouds and fog higher. I see they extended the fog adv to parts of the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Sounds like winter was cancelled in the MA thread lolSent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Sounds like winter was cancelled in the MA thread lol Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Still not much in the way of modeled cold air to our north (in early Jan) has caused the lunch menu to be an extra-large melt. IMO, still way too early to count out anything after the first few days of the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Still not much showing enough cold air to our north in early Jan has caused the lunch menu to be an extra-large melt. Right. Doesn't look good. It is striking to see Eskimo Joe flip as quickly as he appears to have. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Just now, Atomixwx said: Right. Doesn't look good. It is striking to see Eskimo Joe flip as quickly as he appears to have. Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk He is a "bit of a pessimist" though. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 23 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: This is ugly. A low off the VA/NC coast in JANUARY, under negative 500mb height anomalies, bringing rain to PA. Unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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