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Winter 2023/24 Medium/Long Range Discussion


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There are 6 ski hills open daily within a 75 minute drive from my house. Not every winter is going to be frigid and snowy but I still get to enjoy my winter hobbies. Throwing my gear in the car for a hump day shred sesh right now. 
 

Long term post Xmas rains look better here. Still a long way to go this winter.

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I don't think anyone had forecasted this month finishing with near +15 departures for any region, yet that appears likely to be the case for the far northern tier of the CONUS. Also, Christmas this year looks to feature temps running 20 degrees or more above average for a large section of the country that happens to include much of this subforum, so "mild" is a bit of an understatement.

i don’t think anyone in their right mind would ever forecast a +15 +/- departure for a given month.


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Yep this is a full blown torch that no one saw coming to this extend.  Remember Brian said it would be cold later this month.  Only the beginning would be mild.

Ehh…El Nino Decembers are notoriously torchy. Also, historically, going back to the 1940’s December temperature departures are considerably above normal. December is the new November. Winter is January through March. This year we may have to wait till February.


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Just now, DocATL said:


Ehh…El Nino Decembers are notoriously torchy. Also, historically, going back to the 1940’s December temperature departures are considerably above normal. December is the new November. Winter is January through March. This year we may have to wait till February.


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Coping is a hard drug to get off, eh?

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11 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:


How’s the snow and cold coming this year? Asking for a friend.

Its coming about as expected for a strong Nino. Some snow/cold shots in Oct/Nov, a terrible Dec...the rest of the season tbd. The mild weather gives you plenty of time to ensure the green paint job on your grass is on point for when the cold hits Jan-Mar.

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10 hours ago, DocATL said:


Haven’t been here too long. Certainly seems like pattern persistence is the name of the game thus far.


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Chicago averages around 20F colder in winter than Atlanta, so thats one thing to keep in mind. And averages are just that, averages. If youre new to this region genuinely trying to understand how the weather in Chicago works, the LAST person you need to listen to is a troll. Strong El Nino Decembers are about the worst winter weather (for cold/snow lovers) we see in this region. A more favorable MJO may have given you a few more thread the needle slushes and a few more murky gray days with no diurnal temp swing, but it would still suck. Bottom line...once the new year sets in, changes are afoot. To what extent remains to be seen, but this garbage pattern is flushing away. Februarys have often been the harshest month of winter the past few decades, and that may happen again this year. Once we get into mid-winter, in most patterns you worry about storm tracks more than blues and reds on a temp map this far north, unless its an all out torch (like now), which no one is showing for Jan/Feb. Obviously in the south where you are from, seeing blues on a temp map in mid winter is eye candy, but this far north, it can sometimes mean suppression.  

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5 hours ago, Baum said:

I don't want to get into a climate debate here, but their are some that believe a warming climate may actually lead to more palm crushing snows. Ironically, your Milwaukee winter last year someone speaks to this as you had nearly 30 inches of snow most of it of the heavy wet variety from January 26 on including a frond crusher in mid-late march.I also note in your posts you rarely reference what is  going on elsewhere.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/12/04/europe-snow-cold-munich-moscow-record/

An article from the WP. Some might call this "shot with his own gun"

And to keep this thread relevant. I do believe there are some changes a foot that could lead to a colder/snowier period and put "jack" back in his box for a bit.

Beijing saw an all-time December record low of -6F (previous record -1F). 

 

Last winter was the worst for tree damage in memory here. Several wet snowstorms caused havoc galore to to the trees. Hoping for more powder this year, but any snow is better than no snow!

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2 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Coping is a hard drug to get off, eh?

Been following all these posts and I decided to take a look at the stats myself and just say a few things. For the record, I denied climate change for a long time or at least the severity of it. I looked at all the strong/super El Nino's since 1950 (using ONI) and looked at the monthly average for each month in Toronto. The 1981-2010 average is 28.1F for Toronto. The 1991-2020 average isn't out yet for us and I don't think it would be a good baseline to use when looking at winters pre 1980, anyways. 

image.png.8ceb357566dc97073eaa1db5ed8fcdeb.png

When I look at this, two things stand out. One being the anomalous warmth in 2015 and 2023 when compared to other strong El Nino's and the other being the timing. You'd be hard pressed to find two potentially top 5 record warm December's in such a short amount of time (i.e., 8 years) in any other point in history. You might as well add in December 2021 in there because it was also another top 5 or top 10 warm December (for most of us). Now to add the icing on the cake. These two December's are looped in a string of warm Decembers that we've been experiencing since 2011. On a grander scale, it's obvious things are warming and we are seeing a lot more anomalous warmth than we did before. Hard to deny the truth at this point. 

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Chicago averages around 20F colder in winter than Atlanta, so thats one thing to keep in mind. And averages are just that, averages. If youre new to this region genuinely trying to understand how the weather in Chicago works, the LAST person you need to listen to is a troll. Strong El Nino Decembers are about the worst winter weather (for cold/snow lovers) we see in this region. A more favorable MJO may have given you a few more thread the needle slushes and a few more murky gray days with no diurnal temp swing, but it would still suck. Bottom line...once the new year sets in, changes are afoot. To what extent remains to be seen, but this garbage pattern is flushing away. Februarys have often been the harshest month of winter the past few decades, and that may happen again this year. Once we get into mid-winter, in most patterns you worry about storm tracks more than blues and reds on a temp map this far north, unless its an all out torch (like now), which no one is showing for Jan/Feb. Obviously in the south where you are from, seeing blues on a temp map in mid winter is eye candy, but this far north, it can sometimes mean suppression.  

Helpful post and certainly picking up on the suppression piece. Thanks!


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40 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Been following all these posts and I decided to take a look at the stats myself and just say a few things. For the record, I denied climate change for a long time or at least the severity of it. I looked at all the strong/super El Nino's since 1950 (using ONI) and looked at the monthly average for each month in Toronto. The 1981-2010 average is 28.1F for Toronto. The 1991-2020 average isn't out yet for us and I don't think it would be a good baseline to use when looking at winters pre 1980, anyways. 

image.png.8ceb357566dc97073eaa1db5ed8fcdeb.png

When I look at this, two things stand out. One being the anomalous warmth in 2015 and 2023 when compared to other strong El Nino's and the other being the timing. You'd be hard pressed to find two potentially top 5 record warm December's in such a short amount of time (i.e., 8 years) in any other point in history. You might as well add in December 2021 in there because it was also another top 5 or top 10 warm December (for most of us). Now to add the icing on the cake. These two December's are looped in a string of warm Decembers that we've been experiencing since 2011. On a grander scale, it's obvious things are warming and we are seeing a lot more anomalous warmth than we did before. Hard to deny the truth at this point. 

Few things.

#1) Where can you browse toronto's climate data online? I really can't find non-US stations or at least detailed data of them. And they need to get with it (updating the normals) as it's almost 2024 haha

#2) If you REALLY have been following, you would know nobodys denying climate change, they're mocking a troll that everyone is tired of. Have you ever actually seeing some of the things he has said? Most of them arent even acknowledged or replied to, they are so outlandish and ridiculous. He doesn't like stats. Just will say your in denial if you don't think Toronto winters will warm 30° in 20 years.

#3) funny you mention having warm Decembers close together. 3 of Detroit's top 4 warmest Decembers occurred in 1877, 1881, 1889.

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5 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Been following all these posts and I decided to take a look at the stats myself and just say a few things. For the record, I denied climate change for a long time or at least the severity of it. I looked at all the strong/super El Nino's since 1950 (using ONI) and looked at the monthly average for each month in Toronto. The 1981-2010 average is 28.1F for Toronto. The 1991-2020 average isn't out yet for us and I don't think it would be a good baseline to use when looking at winters pre 1980, anyways. 

image.png.8ceb357566dc97073eaa1db5ed8fcdeb.png

When I look at this, two things stand out. One being the anomalous warmth in 2015 and 2023 when compared to other strong El Nino's and the other being the timing. You'd be hard pressed to find two potentially top 5 record warm December's in such a short amount of time (i.e., 8 years) in any other point in history. You might as well add in December 2021 in there because it was also another top 5 or top 10 warm December (for most of us). Now to add the icing on the cake. These two December's are looped in a string of warm Decembers that we've been experiencing since 2011. On a grander scale, it's obvious things are warming and we are seeing a lot more anomalous warmth than we did before. Hard to deny the truth at this point. 

I agree with michsnowfreak post.  Your post is just looking one index.  There are many influences on the weather pattern to make this a warm Dec like the ragging jet configuration in the Pacific without early blocking expected.  1991 was the Mt Pinatubo eruption year so I know that was not used.  My point being is not all of those were included in the analog expectations for this Dec. 2015 and 1982 were included in several forecasts for Dec.

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Back to the weather...all ensembles in agreement that the warmth starts to scour out bigtime after Christmas, so while Im never ready to rush Christmas, it will certainly be nice to turn the page to January weather-wise. This December will go down with 1877, 1881, 1889, & 2015 in the shit category.

Makes sense…we can’t even get a fantasy threat on the models right now.


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1 hour ago, Lightning said:

I agree with michsnowfreak post.  Your post is just looking one index.  There are many influences on the weather pattern to make this a warm Dec like the ragging jet configuration in the Pacific without early blocking expected.  1991 was the Mt Pinatubo eruption year so I know that was not used.  My point being is not all of those were included in the analog expectations for this Dec. 2015 and 1982 were included in several forecasts for Dec.

That's why i'm so into weather stats. Weather has always been fascinating and always will be. I brought up the record warmth In December of 1877 & 1881. But adding on to that, the winters of 1877-78, 1879-80, and 1881-82 were very mild winters that featured at least 1 or 2 record warm winter months. Sandwiched between those were brutally cold winters of 1878-79 and 1880-81. I can't imagine what was going on with the jet stream and all other factors that 5 year stretch.

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56 minutes ago, DocATL said:


I think late January into February will be colder but probably not snowier. In a nino year, this is prime time for southern sliders. I would think March would be our opportunity to get a substantial snow.

March Nino snowstorms are definitely common. You would still see snow in a colder pattern in Jan/Feb tho. Remember, you arent in Atlanta anymore lol.

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22 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Few things.

#1) Where can you browse toronto's climate data online? I really can't find non-US stations or at least detailed data of them. And they need to get with it (updating the normals) as it's almost 2024 haha

#2) If you REALLY have been following, you would know nobodys denying climate change, they're mocking a troll that everyone is tired of. Have you ever actually seeing some of the things he has said? Most of them arent even acknowledged or replied to, they are so outlandish and ridiculous. He doesn't like stats. Just will say your in denial if you don't think Toronto winters will warm 30° in 20 years.

#3) funny you mention having warm Decembers close together. 3 of Detroit's top 4 warmest Decembers occurred in 1877, 1881, 1889.

You can find all the climate data below for YYZ and Toronto (goes back to the 1800s). I also created an excel spreadsheet, that I update every month, with the monthly snowfall total and mean (DJF) temperature for YYZ that I'd happily share with you if you'd like.  

From June 2013 - present: 

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?StationID=51459

From 1937-June 2013 (YYZ):

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/monthly_data_e.html?timeframe=3&hlyRange=1953-01-01|2013-06-13&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2013-06-13&mlyRange=1937-01-01|2013-06-01&StationID=5097&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2022&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=pearson&time=LST&Month=1&Day=1&Year=2008 

From 1840 - 2017:

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/monthly_data_e.html?timeframe=3&hlyRange=1953-01-01|1969-05-31&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2017-04-27&mlyRange=1840-01-01|2006-12-01&StationID=5051&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2022&selRowPerPage=25&Line=4&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=toronto&Month=3&Day=1&Year=1936# 

LOOL, you're right. I agree he's definitely trolling. I think deep down he's just frustrated with the crappy start to this winter and I guess the last few winters. 

And I understand 1877, 1881, 1889 are top 5 right now. But once all is said and done, 2023 will likely be a top 5 or at the very least top 10 warm December for Detroit (given the forecasted temperatures for the next 5-10 days). Dec 2021 was also incredibly warm in Detroit too and 2019 is also up there too. So although Detroit experienced 3 warm Decembers in a period of 12 years, it's experienced 4 (top 5 or top 10ish) warm December's in 8 years and if extended back to 2011, then you find 2 more warm Decembers (2011, 2012). The point I'm trying to make is, these extreme or anomalous warm months or periods are happening more frequently now than they did 50+ years ago. In the same 12 years (2011-2023) vs (1877-1889), Detroit's experienced 6 really warm Decembers and a few slightly above average (2014, 2018, 2020). At this rate, December is slowly becoming a non-winter month lol which sucks because it's the shortest month of the year with the lowest sun angle. 

December trend.jpeg

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11 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

You can find all the climate data below for YYZ and Toronto (goes back to the 1800s). I also created an excel spreadsheet, that I update every month, with the monthly snowfall total and mean (DJF) temperature for YYZ that I'd happily share with you if you'd like.  

From June 2013 - present: 

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/daily_data_e.html?StationID=51459

From 1937-June 2013 (YYZ):

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/monthly_data_e.html?timeframe=3&hlyRange=1953-01-01|2013-06-13&dlyRange=1937-11-01|2013-06-13&mlyRange=1937-01-01|2013-06-01&StationID=5097&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2022&selRowPerPage=25&Line=0&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=pearson&time=LST&Month=1&Day=1&Year=2008 

From 1840 - 2017:

https://climate.weather.gc.ca/climate_data/monthly_data_e.html?timeframe=3&hlyRange=1953-01-01|1969-05-31&dlyRange=1840-03-01|2017-04-27&mlyRange=1840-01-01|2006-12-01&StationID=5051&Prov=ON&urlExtension=_e.html&searchType=stnName&optLimit=yearRange&StartYear=1840&EndYear=2022&selRowPerPage=25&Line=4&searchMethod=contains&txtStationName=toronto&Month=3&Day=1&Year=1936# 

LOOL, you're right. I agree he's definitely trolling. I think deep down he's just frustrated with the crappy start to this winter and I guess the last few winters. 

And I understand 1877, 1881, 1889 are top 5 right now. But once all is said and done, 2023 will likely be a top 5 or at the very least top 10 warm December for Detroit (given the forecasted temperatures for the next 5-10 days). Dec 2021 was also incredibly warm in Detroit too and 2019 is also up there too. So although Detroit experienced 3 warm Decembers in a period of 12 years, it's experienced 4 (top 5 or top 10ish) warm December's in 8 years and if extended back to 2011, then you find 2 more warm Decembers (2011, 2012). The point I'm trying to make is, these extreme or anomalous warm months or periods are happening more frequently now than they did 50+ years ago. In the same 12 years (2011-2023) vs (1877-1889), Detroit's experienced 6 really warm Decembers and a few slightly above average (2014, 2018, 2020). At this rate, December is slowly becoming a non-winter month lol which sucks because it's the shortest month of the year with the lowest sun angle. 

December trend.jpeg

Thanks for the links, I'll save them! When you go from having a snow machine in your backyard to painting your grass green & having palm trees in a humid continental climate, lmao. But yes, his posts are all trolling.

This december will likely be a top 5 warm December. We've only had 2 good cold and snowy Decembers the last decade, we've done actually decent with White Christmases, but December themselves have left much to be desired. What's really interesting is that we have no problem consistently getting early and late season snowflakes (Oct/May), November cold snaps and snowfalls, and loads of snow in February, but it's like pulling teeth to get a good December. Detroit's winter warming over the last 100 years is entirely from December, as Jan (-0.5°) and Feb (+0.5°) are a wash. There have actually been many winters in the past where december was by far the most severe winter month.. That did happen more recently in 2000, 2005, & 2016, but for the most part it's as if We are two completely different climates in december and february.

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