George BM Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Forecast Discussion Tuesday, October 31, 2023 3:45AM EDT The strong arctic front is currently in eastern WV about to enter into western VA. A line of heavy gusty downpours and embedded thunderstorms stretches from NNE to SSW along this front. Temperatures have risen into the lower/mid 70s on strong south to SSE winds ahead of the front. These synoptic winds will continue to gust into the 35-45+ mph range w/ up to 50 mph gusts along the Potomac and Chesapeake shores and mountains to the west gusting into the 50 to 60 mph range with the 70+ kt LL jet overhead. A High Wind Warning for the highest elevations of the Blue Ridge and a Wind Advisory in the metro areas and near the Chesapeake Bay accounts for the wind threat ahead of the front. The main line will affect far western areas (between the VA/WV border and the Blue Ridge) between 8z and 10z, the Greater Metropolitan region in the 9-12z timeframe and eastern and southern MD eastwards through the rest of the Delmarva in the 11z-15z timeframe. Dewpoints ahead of this line are in the upper 60s to around 70F leading to around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE. The main threat from the line of storms will be strong winds and perhaps a brief qlcs tornado given the low-level shear. With Pwats in excess of 1.75” there is a slight risk of flash flooding of some streams and low-lying areas, though the progressive nature of the line will prevent a bigger flood threat. Behind the front temperatures will fall rapidly on strong NNW winds as light/moderate anafrontal rain continues. In fact, temperatures in the metros will fall into the lower 40s by the early afternoon hours w/ upper 30s in the far NW suburbs. At the same time, a potent shortwave trough will have rounded the base of the longwave trough taking on a negative-tilt allowing another wave of low pressure to rapidly deepen along the front in the eastern Carolinas into the Virginia Beach area. This area of low-pressure will travel northeast along the front which will be situated along the Atlantic coastline through the afternoon and evening. As this occurs, more moisture will be thrown northwest into the cold airmass courtesy of the strongly negatively tilted trough increasing precip intensity. By mid-afternoon rain will change over to snow in the mountains with this changeover moving eastwards into the metros by 21-22z as temperatures fall to near freezing. Snowfall rates will be heavy with 1-2”+/hr rates commonplace, perhaps nearing 3”/hr at times in the heaviest bands that form. At the same time, courtesy of the increasing surface pressure gradient, NNW winds may gust over 50 mph at times from late afternoon through the evening. This will lead to low visibilities of under a quarter mile at times. A Winter Storm Warning is currently in place from the mid-afternoon hours into the early overnight hours for the metros with Blizzard warnings along the Blue Ridge and higher elevations. An upgrade to a Blizzard Warning for the majority of the region may very well be needed if current model and realtime trends continue this morning. Snow should taper off by midnight or 1am at latest with many areas receiving 6-10”+ of snow (locally up to a foot where the heaviest bands set up) with 10”-15”+ amounts in the mountains to the west. Temperatures will bottom out in record territory and hover in the lower/mid 20s through the overnight hours but the strong gusty NW winds will put wind chills in the single digits making for a mid-winter like start to November. Forecaster Wannabe: George BM 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Painted the wheels on the ole Massey. Pretty close to done with the restoration except for mechanical wear parts that haven't failed yet. Diesel motor should be good for another 3k hours b4 rebuild is needed. Everything works including power steering lol. Massey Ferguson purists will hate the paint job but I'm not a purist and it looks cool to me 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Painted the wheels on the ole Massey. Pretty close to done with the restoration except for mechanical wear parts that haven't failed yet. Diesel motor should be good for another 3k hours b4 rebuild is needed. Everything works including power steering lol. Massey Ferguson purists will hate the paint job but I'm not a purist and it looks cool to me Super awesome Bob!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 12 hours ago, George BM said: Forecast Discussion Tuesday, October 31, 2023 3:45AM EDT The strong arctic front is currently in eastern WV about to enter into western VA. A line of heavy gusty downpours and embedded thunderstorms stretches from NNE to SSW along this front. Temperatures have risen into the lower/mid 70s on strong south to SSE winds ahead of the front. These synoptic winds will continue to gust into the 35-45+ mph range w/ up to 50 mph gusts along the Potomac and Chesapeake shores and mountains to the west gusting into the 50 to 60 mph range with the 70+ kt LL jet overhead. A High Wind Warning for the highest elevations of the Blue Ridge and a Wind Advisory in the metro areas and near the Chesapeake Bay accounts for the wind threat ahead of the front. The main line will affect far western areas (between the VA/WV border and the Blue Ridge) between 8z and 10z, the Greater Metropolitan region in the 9-12z timeframe and eastern and southern MD eastwards through the rest of the Delmarva in the 11z-15z timeframe. Dewpoints ahead of this line are in the upper 60s to around 70F leading to around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE. The main threat from the line of storms will be strong winds and perhaps a brief qlcs tornado given the low-level shear. With Pwats in excess of 1.75” there is a slight risk of flash flooding of some streams and low-lying areas, though the progressive nature of the line will prevent a bigger flood threat. Behind the front temperatures will fall rapidly on strong NNW winds as light/moderate anafrontal rain continues. In fact, temperatures in the metros will fall into the lower 40s by the early afternoon hours w/ upper 30s in the far NW suburbs. At the same time, a potent shortwave trough will have rounded the base of the longwave trough taking on a negative-tilt allowing another wave of low pressure to rapidly deepen along the front in the eastern Carolinas into the Virginia Beach area. This area of low-pressure will travel northeast along the front which will be situated along the Atlantic coastline through the afternoon and evening. As this occurs, more moisture will be thrown northwest into the cold airmass courtesy of the strongly negatively tilted trough increasing precip intensity. By mid-afternoon rain will change over to snow in the mountains with this changeover moving eastwards into the metros by 21-22z as temperatures fall to near freezing. Snowfall rates will be heavy with 1-2”+/hr rates commonplace, perhaps nearing 3”/hr at times in the heaviest bands that form. At the same time, courtesy of the increasing surface pressure gradient, NNW winds may gust over 50 mph at times from late afternoon through the evening. This will lead to low visibilities of under a quarter mile at times. A Winter Storm Warning is currently in place from the mid-afternoon hours into the early overnight hours for the metros with Blizzard warnings along the Blue Ridge and higher elevations. An upgrade to a Blizzard Warning for the majority of the region may very well be needed if current model and realtime trends continue this morning. Snow should taper off by midnight or 1am at latest with many areas receiving 6-10”+ of snow (locally up to a foot where the heaviest bands set up) with 10”-15”+ amounts in the mountains to the west. Temperatures will bottom out in record territory and hover in the lower/mid 20s through the overnight hours but the strong gusty NW winds will put wind chills in the single digits making for a mid-winter like start to November. Forecaster Wannabe: George BM Sounds like an enhanced version of Oct 9/10 1979 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Return of the stinkbugs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 20 minutes ago, CAPE said: Return of the stinkbugs. Lantern flies here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Raven's offense is impotent. More fun electrocuting stink bugs out on the deck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Oh look, another fumble. Handing the ball off to the back shouldn't be a difficult task. Finally a decent drive, but what a killer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 That's more like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 What’s up with the Bengals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 33 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: What’s up with the Bengals? Don’t know. Even burrow’s calf doesn’t explain this. It’s…bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 Anyone else seeing a stink bug explosion literally today? They are EVERYWHERE at my house - trying to get in every window and door. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 This is the best I can remember Lamar playing. Not trying to do too much and great accuracy with the pass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 12 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: This is the best I can remember Lamar playing. Not trying to do too much and great accuracy with the pass. Super impressive for you all too because of how legit that browns D is. You all should be pumped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: Anyone else seeing a stink bug explosion literally today? They are EVERYWHERE at my house - trying to get in every window and door. Literally. Saw ONE yesterday. Fried at least 40 out on the deck/sunny side of the house today with my electrocution racket. Every one I kill now is one less I spend the winter with in the house. They weren't bad at all last Fall. Not so this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 52 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: This is the best I can remember Lamar playing. Not trying to do too much and great accuracy with the pass. 2 TDS rushing, 2 TDs passing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: Literally. Saw ONE yesterday. Fried at least 40 out on the deck/sunny side of the house today with my electrocution racket. Every one I kill now is one less I spend the winter with in the house. They weren't bad at all last Fall. Not so this year. Glad it’s not just me - it is crazy weird - like horror movie weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said: Glad it’s not just me - it is crazy weird - like horror movie weird. They know winter is coming. Around here the feed corn is being harvested, and they spend the summer feeding and breeding in the fields. Now they are seeking their place of overwintering, and it doesn't help that we have a week of temps near 80. I think last year the early chill kept the numbers low, but it does seem to vary from year to year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 2 hours ago, North Balti Zen said: Anyone else seeing a stink bug explosion literally today? They are EVERYWHERE at my house - trying to get in every window and door. Yup….. I saw lots of stink bugs crawling and flying around my house today. Way more than last few years. Of course, high Fall stink bug counts portend a snowy winter here ( or so I hope ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 1, 2023 Share Posted October 1, 2023 So do we want Texas or the Rays? I’m leaning Texas given their 2nd half struggles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 Last night and the night before that, Palisades Tahoe had steady SNOW!!!! It was not accumulating but it was a cool 34 degrees! Those guys get the snow early! With the record strong super Nino, they are REALLY gonna get Januburied BAD this season! Its snowing lightly RIGHT NOW, TOO! Check out the 8200' Level webcam! https://www.palisadestahoe.com/mountain-information/webcams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 4 hours ago, MDstorm said: Yup….. I saw lots of stink bugs crawling and flying around my house today. Way more than last few years. Of course, high Fall stink bug counts portend a snowy winter here ( or so I hope ). Bank on it. Twenty percent interest, too. You guys are gonna get buried ALIVE in deep snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 11 hours ago, wxdude64 said: Sounds like an enhanced version of Oct 9/10 1979 I remember that! We got an early season Arctic Front that changed the rain to snow, we got an inch of snow, but Prince William County still made us go to damned school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 On 9/30/2023 at 8:34 PM, George BM said: Forecast Discussion Tuesday, October 31, 2023 3:45AM EDT The strong arctic front is currently in eastern WV about to enter into western VA. A line of heavy gusty downpours and embedded thunderstorms stretches from NNE to SSW along this front. Temperatures have risen into the lower/mid 70s on strong south to SSE winds ahead of the front. These synoptic winds will continue to gust into the 35-45+ mph range w/ up to 50 mph gusts along the Potomac and Chesapeake shores and mountains to the west gusting into the 50 to 60 mph range with the 70+ kt LL jet overhead. A High Wind Warning for the highest elevations of the Blue Ridge and a Wind Advisory in the metro areas and near the Chesapeake Bay accounts for the wind threat ahead of the front. The main line will affect far western areas (between the VA/WV border and the Blue Ridge) between 8z and 10z, the Greater Metropolitan region in the 9-12z timeframe and eastern and southern MD eastwards through the rest of the Delmarva in the 11z-15z timeframe. Dewpoints ahead of this line are in the upper 60s to around 70F leading to around 500-1000 J/kg of CAPE. The main threat from the line of storms will be strong winds and perhaps a brief qlcs tornado given the low-level shear. With Pwats in excess of 1.75” there is a slight risk of flash flooding of some streams and low-lying areas, though the progressive nature of the line will prevent a bigger flood threat. Behind the front temperatures will fall rapidly on strong NNW winds as light/moderate anafrontal rain continues. In fact, temperatures in the metros will fall into the lower 40s by the early afternoon hours w/ upper 30s in the far NW suburbs. At the same time, a potent shortwave trough will have rounded the base of the longwave trough taking on a negative-tilt allowing another wave of low pressure to rapidly deepen along the front in the eastern Carolinas into the Virginia Beach area. This area of low-pressure will travel northeast along the front which will be situated along the Atlantic coastline through the afternoon and evening. As this occurs, more moisture will be thrown northwest into the cold airmass courtesy of the strongly negatively tilted trough increasing precip intensity. By mid-afternoon rain will change over to snow in the mountains with this changeover moving eastwards into the metros by 21-22z as temperatures fall to near freezing. Snowfall rates will be heavy with 1-2”+/hr rates commonplace, perhaps nearing 3”/hr at times in the heaviest bands that form. At the same time, courtesy of the increasing surface pressure gradient, NNW winds may gust over 50 mph at times from late afternoon through the evening. This will lead to low visibilities of under a quarter mile at times. A Winter Storm Warning is currently in place from the mid-afternoon hours into the early overnight hours for the metros with Blizzard warnings along the Blue Ridge and higher elevations. An upgrade to a Blizzard Warning for the majority of the region may very well be needed if current model and realtime trends continue this morning. Snow should taper off by midnight or 1am at latest with many areas receiving 6-10”+ of snow (locally up to a foot where the heaviest bands set up) with 10”-15”+ amounts in the mountains to the west. Temperatures will bottom out in record territory and hover in the lower/mid 20s through the overnight hours but the strong gusty NW winds will put wind chills in the single digits making for a mid-winter like start to November. Forecaster Wannabe: George BM 1. You are NO wannabe, George BM. 2. Expect this for real, as the record strong Nino shreds the Mid Atlantic this fall and winter. 3. George BM is dead on, but the snowfall amounts are conservative. This may happen later in the season but the Mid Atlantic will get severely walloped by snow and high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 13 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Painted the wheels on the ole Massey. Pretty close to done with the restoration except for mechanical wear parts that haven't failed yet. Diesel motor should be good for another 3k hours b4 rebuild is needed. Everything works including power steering lol. Massey Ferguson purists will hate the paint job but I'm not a purist and it looks cool to me I am jealous! I LOVE your avatar pic! It is very, very apt for this winter in the Mid Atlantic. This Nino is going to be a BEAST! You're gonna need truckloads of those Faces! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 22 hours ago, Bob Chill said: Painted the wheels on the ole Massey. Pretty close to done with the restoration except for mechanical wear parts that haven't failed yet. Diesel motor should be good for another 3k hours b4 rebuild is needed. Everything works including power steering lol. Massey Ferguson purists will hate the paint job but I'm not a purist and it looks cool to me 18 hours ago, CAPE said: Return of the stinkbugs. Yeah, WTAF is up with THEM all of a sudden?? Yesterday alone, we found at least 3 or 4 in the house, and a dozen or more while sitting out on the patio. UGH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 Stink bugs always seem to come out on warm sunny fall days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted October 2, 2023 Share Posted October 2, 2023 21 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said: Lantern flies here. We've so far escaped them in my neck of Fairfax County, but I'm assuming it's a matter of time. We went apple picking in Berryville this weekend and I killed all three that I saw. Was up in South Jersey about six weeks ago and didn't see nearly as many as I did at the same time last year. My dad said that they weren't as plentiful as they had been in the previous couple years, so I guess that's good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 I found my first lantern fly on my street last week. My parents live < 70 miles north in southern pa and they see them every day. It’s only a matter of time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted October 3, 2023 Share Posted October 3, 2023 Havent seen them in Ellicott City yet but coached a softball game in western hoco and they were all over the place. No stinkbugs or lantern flies in Deep Creek either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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