August 2023 General Discussion

[SolidIcewx]

6 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Yeah the models definitely struggles with this system.  Once it became 2 distinct waves instead of 1 bigger one the models seemed to be playing a lot of catch up to reality.  Funny thing is the NAM the past 2 days seemed to perform the best for MBY. 

 

I did okay with nearly an 1".    Like you say hawkeye it was a slow soak which is great for soil! 

1” is still something for a good time

[SolidIcewx]

@Lightning in Columbus now continuing our Michigan trend of storms sliding south of us. I officially think I’m not a magnet but a repealing force 

[Lightning]

1 hour ago, SolidIcewx said:

@Lightning in Columbus now continuing our Michigan trend of storms sliding south of us. I officially think I’m not a magnet but a repealing force 

There are times I really think I could sell myself to cities in the Plains or MW as a big T-storm repellant.  Save your city and hire me to move to your city.  In fine print tell them the city might be destroyed when I go on vacation 

[SolidIcewx]

Just now, Lightning said:

There are time I really think I could sell myself cities in the Plains or MW as a big T-storm repellant.  Save your city and hire me to move to your city.  In fine print tell them the city might be destroyed when I go on vacation 

Lmao that’s exactly how I felt going to Lima when DTW area and towards the thumb got crushed. At some point I’ll get the smoke. Was hoping for that on my drive down there last night. Out in Jackson Ohio where I’ll be in a few weeks is getting crushed now

[WestMichigan]

14 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Lmao that’s exactly how I felt going to Lima when DTW area and towards the thumb got crushed. At some point I’ll get the smoke. Was hoping for that on my drive down there last night. Out in Jackson Ohio where I’ll be in a few weeks is getting crushed now

Jackson, OH, you are heading into the middle of nowhere down that way.

[TheClimateChanger]

14 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Jackson, OH, you are heading into the middle of nowhere down that way.

Unreal how it's only a fraction of a degree warmer than DTW despite basically being in Kentucky.

[SolidIcewx]

44 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

Jackson, OH, you are heading into the middle of nowhere down that way.

Right where I like to be. Other than food and store reasons I prefer to work out in the boondocks. Also don’t have to see my bosses as much. I look forward to the hills and the 2-3 mile hikes I’ll have to do

[WestMichigan]

37 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Right where I like to be. Other than food and store reasons I prefer to work out in the boondocks. Also don’t have to see my bosses as much. I look forward to the hills and the 2-3 mile hikes I’ll have to do

I grew up just north of the Ohio River in SE Ohio.  I am familiar with that part of the state and it is a great place to be just not much around there.  What do you do that takes you to Jackson for work?

[SolidIcewx]

15 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

I grew up just north of the Ohio River in SE Ohio.  I am familiar with that part of the state and it is a great place to be just not much around there.  What do you do that takes you to Jackson for work?

I’m a Maintenance Planner. I plan tree work to be done based off of the power companies specifications. Which I follow power lines and anything in the right of way I’ll decide if I want to remove or to be trimmed. My company needed help in Ohio for a few months so I get to have a grand tour. Was in Lima-Dunkirk. Columbus by the shoe now and then eventually somewhere around Jackson by the border of WV. Sometimes it’s easy or other occasions it’s a lot of hiking like how it will be down there. I get to crawl around all sorts of stuff lol. Under AEP down here and DTE when I’m in Michigan for work

[Chinook]

Tonight, the low clouds finally dissipated and there were some nice high clouds of a couple of types close to sunset. The temp is down to 70 now, with, thankfully dew points down to 61. During this weekend's storm and earlier today, my place had light rain, drizzle, low clouds, with dew points up to 72 on Saturday. It feels like this whole region wasted a chance for good thunderstorms. Mostly steady rains went from Indiana to Michigan and killed the instability that could have been. I think my place got 0.3" of rain and I could barely even tell it happened.

[Brian D]

Prelim data in for July. Near avg on the plus side. 5 & 10 yr trend chrts shown respectively.

Update: Double checking my datasets, I noticed I accidentally flipped July, and Aug data when I updated one of the datasets with a new version. So that put 1868 well above other years which was similar to the last data string I had.

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

7 hours ago, Brian D said:

Prelim data in for July. Near avg on the plus side. 5 & 10 yr trend chrts shown respectively.

Here is my chart for the lower Great Lakes region for the month of July.

Top 5 warmest years: 1921, 1868, 1955, 2012, 2020

Top 5 coolest years: 1891, 1865, 1841, 1842, 1837

[TheClimateChanger]

Here's what Lansing, Michigan (one of my reference cities for data back to 1863) looked like in July 1865, just to get a flavor of some of these months:

Conversely, here is July 1868 at Lansing:

[TheClimateChanger]

Some data from downtown Toronto:

July 1841:

July 1842:

July 1865:

July 1868:

[Brian D]

Stms moving through my area today, but of course they are mostly N of me. Had a glancing blow for a couple hundreths. Hopefully some will form and hit here later. Temps in the lower 80's with upper 60's for dews. Good fuel.

[IWXwx]

This has been a copy and paste summer in these parts. Today's IND discussion is the latest to paste this:

"An amplified trough/ridge pattern will support northwesterly 
flow aloft throughout the majority of the forecast period. 
Northwesterly flow may lead to "ridge-riding" mesoscale 
convective systems. Models struggle to pick up on the timing
and intensity of MCS features, especially where mesoscale
factors largely determine convective location and intensity. 
As such, pin pointing exact timing of any significant round 
of convection will be a bit tricky."

[Lightning]

Had a quick thunderstorm this evening.  

[Mogget]

Another summer 2023 copy and paste, this one from MKX:

”…could split around southern WI…”

[Brian D]

20 hours ago, Brian D said:

Stms moving through my area today, but of course they are mostly N of me. Had a glancing blow for a couple hundreths. Hopefully some will form and hit here later. Temps in the lower 80's with upper 60's for dews. Good fuel.

Ended up with a whopping 0.1" after a thunder shower moved through just after sunset. 1st measurable rain of the month. 

[Brian D]

On 8/8/2023 at 1:58 AM, Brian D said:

Prelim data in for July. Near avg on the plus side. 5 & 10 yr trend chrts shown respectively.

Update: Double checking my datasets, I noticed I accidentally flipped July, and Aug data when I updated one of the datasets with a new version. So that put 1868 well above other years which was similar to the last data string I had.

 

 

The big difference between TheClimateChanger's data (which is cool to see), and mine, is the scope of the area. He has a small area in the S sub, while I have a much larger one. Using maps from MRCC's map maker, you can see the reason for some of the differences that show up just because of the wx pattern differences that affect our region. That, and the difference in agencies handling of raw data (which these maps are using with a 1991-2020 baseline)) with their respective modelling/reanalysis techniques they employ (which is why I avg them using 1901-2000 baseline). Unfortunately, MRCC only goes back to 1900, so no 1868 map is available. I also added the lat/long lines on the 1st map to show the area that I'm using. Other than 1868, the other hot years on my chart are virtually tied. An update on a dataset could change those with such a tiny margin. Since 1955, and 2020 are on his top 5, I included those as well. Hope this helps those perusing our posts.  

1868: 3.461

2012: 2.814

1901: 2.714

1936: 2.614

1921: 2.613

1955: 2.428

2020: 1.806

 

[SolidIcewx]

Can’t wait till it’s dark then I’ll go outside to smoke a joint and watch some nice nocturnal lightning 

[WestMichigan]

Talk about heat indices with corn contributing to the humidity. How about this?  https://www.msn.com/en-us/weather/topstories/hot-tub-like-persian-gulf-fuels-158-degree-heat-index-in-iran/ar-AA1f1Rtx

[weatherbo]

Early Autumn feel 

 

 

[hardypalmguy]

11 hours ago, SolidIcewx said:

Can’t wait till it’s dark then I’ll go outside to smoke a joint and watch some nice nocturnal lightning 

better with cocaine

[hardypalmguy]

34 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Early Autumn feel 

 

 

barrow might have some warmer days

[Torchageddon]

Got my 9th t-storm first thing this morning, 13mm of rain with even a little hail briefly. Good rumbles of thud on the first. Lowest light of 170 lux around 9am. More cells rolled through so now up to 24mm just for this morning. Thursday this year is the day of the week I'm getting all my storms, even before today I noticed .

There is a potent cell heading for northern Waterloo currently that is svr warned for toonie sized hail. Looks like a strong hail core:

[Chambana]

Another 1.2” of rain yesterday. Everything is as green as it has been all summer, who would have thought? 

[hawkeye_wx]

Models had been teasing a line of rain early Friday morning, but not necessarily very robust.  Instead, a good hour of thunderstorms dropped 0.96" on my yard, the best rain event since June 24th, which is when the drought really began in earnest.  My August rain total is now 1.71, more than all of July.

It's good we got the rain this morning because it appears the strong Sunday system may produce the good rain north of Iowa where the best dynamics are and south of Iowa where the best moisture is.

[cyclone77]

Yeah don't see much in the way of rain around here until maybe next Thu.  Sun/Mon system looks like a dud for this area.  

Getting some slow rumbles and light anvil rain here this morning.

[weatherbo]

45 earlier this morning before clouds and showers moved in.  Coolest reading I could find was 38 at Doe Lake in Alger County. A wet and cool few days in the offing. Fine by me.