mahantango#1 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 27 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The meso's are all over the place. GFS suggests some areas near the LSV may not get much rain. I hope I get 1/4" to water the grass. I thought by now we would have a good consensus on the model runs, as it is only a few hours away. I hope everyone gets some beneficial rain and no gully washers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 36 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: The meso's are all over the place. GFS suggests some areas near the LSV may not get much rain. I hope I get 1/4" to water the grass. That huge slow moving area of precip in WV & southwest PA looks to bring the goods to all of us today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 10 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: I thought by now we would have a good consensus on the model runs, as it is only a few hours away. I hope everyone gets some beneficial rain and no gully washers. The GFS is really east based with the good rains (no one in the LSV or west sees 1"). the mesos's are predictably more convective looking but focus the heavier rains in much different areas which can be expected with convection, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 How much for Tamaqua??? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 The GFS is really east based with the good rains (no one in the LSV or west sees 1"). the mesos's are predictably more convective looking but focus the heavier rains in much different areas which can be expected with convection, I guess. I believe the rains will be convective based. But we have all scene the meso model dance this summer. It's basically a 90's throwback party to models and snowstormsSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Atomixwx said: Yeah what's the deal here? My yard is littered with mushrooms. This was not an issue last year Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Same. I was stunned by how many there were when I mowed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 I know have a 10-15 mph wind from the southeast that's ramped up as that storm around new Bloomfield exploded. I actually can see the towers from the small clearing in the clouds. Any heating will make this more interesting from a severe point of view Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Same. I was stunned by how many there were when I mowed. @Coop_Mason probably would have the best answerSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 29 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I believe the rains will be convective based. But we have all scene the meso model dance this summer. It's basically a 90's throwback party to models and snowstorms Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk The area in WV and Western MD, though terrain enhanced, is really juiced up. The HRRR actually weakens that as it moves East and a new area forms in or east of the LSV after lunch. Interesting progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 The area in WV and Western MD, though terrain enhanced, is really juiced up. The HRRR actually weakens that as it moves East and a new area forms in or east of the LSV after lunch. Interesting progression. I haven't scene a single meso that at this hour was accurately predicting ground truth via radarSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 @canderson The sun came out for 5 minutes while I got mow #12 in this morning. The rain today will probably bust! (How am I doing playing this role?) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 9, 2023 Author Share Posted July 9, 2023 I’m honestly surprise we have severe storms warned N/NE of HBG. CAPE seems nonexistent- I expected heavy, heavy rain and some gusty winds but yea. I’ll e take my crow smoked over hickory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 I thought by now we would have a good consensus on the model runs, as it is only a few hours away. I hope everyone gets some beneficial rain and no gully washers.You look to be ground zero soon. Let us know how the thunder/lightning isSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 9, 2023 Author Share Posted July 9, 2023 46 minutes ago, Voyager said: How much for Tamaqua??? A cell just exploded over your home there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 A cell just exploded over your home there! They are going up everywhere right nowSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I haven't scene a single meso that at this hour was accurately predicting ground truth via radar Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk It’s time to use another Winter rule… “Throw out the short term models… it’s now-casting time!” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: That huge slow moving area of precip in WV & southwest PA looks to bring the goods to all of us today. Blizz winters on it way 1-2” of rain today equals 12-24” of snow can’t wait 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, canderson said: A cell just exploded over your home there! In the words of the great Bob Ueker it was "just a bit outside"...lol It actually, per radar, popped about two miles east of my house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted July 9, 2023 Author Share Posted July 9, 2023 We are blue boxed for damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 We are blue boxed for damaging winds. Watch is out. Sun is outSent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 49 minutes ago, Jns2183 said: I haven't scene a single meso that at this hour was accurately predicting ground truth via radar Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk A big problem lately. With that said, things have really darkened up here. Wind's gusting in the 30's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 21 minutes ago, canderson said: We are blue boxed for damaging winds. Hopefully “blue boxed” doesn’t end up like blue … nevermind…. Lol, I’ll leave this for @Atomixwx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Summit Snow Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Dumping up here. Already .50 this AM and serious rain coming through right now with a severe storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Cells firing in the central LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Picked up a quick. 39 in of rain from a severe warnd storm. Must have hailed close by, temp dropped 8 degrees. It got really cool air after the storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 Street flooding in waynesboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 1 hour ago, canderson said: I’m honestly surprise we have severe storms warned N/NE of HBG. CAPE seems nonexistent- I expected heavy, heavy rain and some gusty winds but yea. I’ll e take my crow smoked over hickory. The met at MU has been banging the severe threat for today since Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 It rained. And there was some thunder. I'm sure my mushrooms are happy.Sent from my motorola edge 5G UW (2021) using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: Street flooding in waynesboro Rain in Rouzerville now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted July 9, 2023 Share Posted July 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Rain in Rouzerville now? Dry in rouville. . Storm is in western Waynesboro. Tree down on 16 so Waynesboro is closed for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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