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Severe Weather 3-30-23 and 3-31-23


cheese007
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   SPC AC 301732

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Thu Mar 30 2023

   Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
   IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...AND ALSO
   ACROSS NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL...EXTREME WESTERN
   KENTUCKY...WESTERN TENNESSEE...AND FAR NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Intense and widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Friday
   afternoon into the overnight hours across portions of the Middle
   Mississippi Valley and Mid-South vicinity, eastward to the Lower
   Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Intense, damaging gusts and several
   tornadoes (some strong and long-track) are expected.

   ...A regional outbreak of severe storms is expected on Friday across
   parts of the Mid-Mississippi Valley and also into the Mid-South...

   ...Synopsis...
   A deep mid/upper-level trough and attendant 100 kt midlevel jet will
   move quickly eastward from the central Plains into parts of the MS
   Valley and Midwest on Friday. A surface low will deepen as it moves
   across IA toward the Great Lakes region, as a cold front sweeps
   eastward through parts of the Great Plains into the mid-MS Valley.
   In advance of the cold front, low-level moisture will stream
   northward across a broad warm sector from the ArkLaTex region into
   parts of the lower/mid MS Valley and Midwest. 

   ...Mid-MS Valley vicinity into IN/lower MI...
   Rapid destabilization and increasing large-scale ascent will support
   thunderstorm development by early/mid afternoon across parts of IA
   into northern MO. Very strong deep-layer shear (effective shear in
   excess of 60 kt) and MLCAPE increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg (locally
   greater) will support organized convection, with initial supercell
   development expected somewhere over central IA into north-central
   MO. Very large hail will be the initial threat, given steep midlevel
   lapse rates and cold temperatures aloft. 

   Some uncertainty remains regarding the convective mode evolution
   with time, but a few semi-discrete supercells are expected to move
   into an environment with stronger low-level shear/SRH across eastern
   IA into northwest IL by late afternoon, posing a threat for a couple
   strong tornadoes. Evolution into small clusters or bowing segments
   is expected, resulting in an increasing threat of severe/damaging
   winds in addition to a continued threat of a few tornadoes and
   sporadic hail. 

   Organized convection will spread eastward into parts of IN/southern
   MI Friday night. Instability will weaken with eastward extent, but
   some threat for damaging wind and a couple of tornadoes will persist
   before a more definitive weakening trend occurs overnight into early
   Saturday morning. 

   ...ArkLaTex/Mid South vicinity into the TN/lower OH Valleys...
   A concerning scenario still appears possible across portions of the
   MO Bootheel, northeast AR, western TN/KY and far northwest MS
   vicinity during the afternoon/evening. At least mid-60s F dewpoints
   are expected beneath modest midlevel lapse rates. This will support
   1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE amid intense vertical shear. Forecast
   soundings indicate 0-1 km SRH increasing to around 400 m2/s2 by
   early afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to develop by early
   afternoon ahead of the cold front within a pre-frontal
   trough/low-level confluence zone. Storm motion near 50 kt with
   supercell wind profiles will support cells capable of significant
   and long-track tornadoes. With time, upscale growth into a QLCS is
   expected, and intense wind gusts will be possible in addition to
   mesovortex tornadoes. The threat for damaging gusts and a few
   line-embedded tornadoes will spread into parts of the TN and lower
   OH Valleys Friday night, with a gradual weakening trend eventually
   expected overnight as storms move into increasingly weak buoyancy
   with eastward extent.

   ..Dean.. 03/30/2023
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15 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

Pivotal Weather released an interesting new CAM model to their data feed. The RRFS A. It shows a pretty ugly situation for central and eastern AR by early afternoon tomorrow. refcmp_uh001h.us_ov.png

That is pretty extreme. Between the HRRR and the rest of the CAM, this is as an extreme/high-end as you can get outside of a super outbreak scenario. The parameter space and warm sector is indeed impressive.

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This is the strongest wording I’ve seen in an SPC outlook in a long time. They’re always mindful of their wording and it’s very notable that they not only use the word “violent” to describe the tornado threat; but that strong/violent tornadoes are “probable.”9aa90f8580e976d4bb32513112aeb749.jpg


.
Probably strongest wording I've ever seen that isn't a high risk.

Sent from my SM-S901U using Tapatalk

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95/90 tor probs

SEL3

   URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Tornado Watch Number 93
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1145 AM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Tornado Watch for portions of 
     Central and Eastern Iowa
     Western Illinois
     Northern and Central Missouri
     Southwest Wisconsin

   * Effective this Friday morning and evening from 1145 AM until
     800 PM CDT.

   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

   * Primary threats include...
     Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
     Widespread large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
       inches in diameter likely
     Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

   SUMMARY...Intense supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop
   this afternoon and spread eastward across the watch area. 
   Tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible with this
   activity.  Parameters are favorable for the potential for
   strong/violent tornadoes and very large hail.

   The tornado watch area is approximately along and 115 statute miles
   east and west of a line from 30 miles east of Jefferson City MO to
   55 miles east northeast of Mason City IA. For a complete depiction
   of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS
   WOU3).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
   tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
   area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
   threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
   and possible warnings.

   &&

   AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
   surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
   gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
   storm motion vector 24040.

   ...Hart
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90/90 tor probs

SEL4 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 94 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Much of Arkansas Southern Illinois Western Kentucky Southern Missouri Northwest Mississippi West Tennessee Northeast Texas * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1230 PM until 800 PM CDT. ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION... * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes and a few intense tornadoes likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely SUMMARY...Numerous severe thunderstorms are expected to develop and spread across the mid Mississippi Valley region this afternoon and early evening. Supercells capable of damaging tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds are all possible. Parameters are sufficiently favorable for the risk of strong/violent tornadoes. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 120 statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles east southeast of El Dorado AR to 5 miles northwest of Saint Louis MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 93... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart

 

image.gif.7f145d591a599d6ef75e67dc99011fae.gif

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It begins

Tornado Warning
IAC039-053-159-175-311830-
/O.NEW.KDMX.TO.W.0001.230331T1740Z-230331T1830Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1240 PM CDT Fri Mar 31 2023

The National Weather Service in Des Moines  has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern Decatur County in south central Iowa...
  Southeastern Union County in south central Iowa...
  Eastern Ringgold County in south central Iowa...
  Southwestern Clarke County in south central Iowa...

* Until 130 PM CDT.

* At 1240 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located 5 miles northwest of Hatfield, or 8 miles south
  of Mount Ayr, moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Mt Ayr Municipal Airport around 1245 PM CDT.
  Kellerton around 1255 PM CDT.
  Beaconsfield around 100 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of this tornadic thunderstorm include Sun
Valley Lake, Grand River, Decatur City and Van Wert.

This includes Interstate 35 between mile markers 12 and 25.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 4100 9393 4081 9365 4057 9411 4057 9436
TIME...MOT...LOC 1740Z 223DEG 42KT 4059 9420

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN

$$

Hagenhoff
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