El Nino 2023-2024

[40/70 Benchmark]

Yea, no argument from me on that for March. Looks toasty here.

[Itryatgolf70]

On 2/21/2024 at 10:34 AM, GaWx said:

It wasn’t just the extended models that failed badly. Failing that far out isn’t at all unusual due to low skill. But look at how badly the GEFS (other models were similar) busted with the very strong -AO predictions made 2/6-8 for 2/13-20:

2/6 predicted -3.5

2/7 predicted -3.0

2/8 predicted -3.2

 

2/6 AO prediction: -3.5 for 2/13-20 (all days sub -3.0!)

 

 

Actual AO: -0.6 for 2/13-20 (2/16-20 all ended up above all 30 2/6 prediction’s members!)(2/20 ended up +2 vs -3 progs!)

 

https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.gefs.z1000.120days.csv

Larry, I have a question. Did the eps do good with the ao forecast? Typically, it usually has a good handle on teleconnections from what I've noticed.

[Itryatgolf70]

If the niña is east based this next winter, I feel we will have a few strong cold shots. If it's more central based, may be more difficult. 

[raindancewx]

We're really starting to see the handiwork of the Super +WPO again.

I've been telling people for six months here, the closer we get to March, the crazier the weather gets. You can see we're almost there. Plenty of heat in TX. https://twitter.com/MattHinesTX/status/1762276038665457919/photo/1

3-9 feet of snow for California in two days, starting Thursday.

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Larry, I have a question. Did the eps do good with the ao forecast? Typically, it usually has a good handle on teleconnections from what I've noticed.

0Z AO forecasts for 2/13-20

2/6: GEFS -3.5; EPS: -3.2

2/7: GEFS -3.0; EPS: -2.8

2/8: GEFS -3.2; EPS: -2.5

2/9: GEFS -2.7; EPS: -2.5

2/10: GEFS -2.2; EPS: -2.1

2/12: GEFS -1.2; EPS: -1.1

Actual for 2/13-20: -0.6

Although both did horribly, the EPS was slightly less horrible. I’d go F for GEFS (avg miss -2.0) and F+ for EPS (avg miss -1.8)

[FPizz]

Did the trimonthly get to 2.0 for this to be super?  I feel like I've seen both listed elsewhere.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, FPizz said:

Did the trimonthly get to 2.0 for this to be super?  I feel like I've seen both listed elsewhere.

It did. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

Since 1948, The 4 times we had a OND ONI +2.0 or greater, we had a La Nina the following OND. One of those was the strongest La Nina on record (1973). 

[Itryatgolf70]

21 hours ago, GaWx said:

0Z AO forecasts for 2/13-20

2/6: GEFS -3.5; EPS: -3.2

2/7: GEFS -3.0; EPS: -2.8

2/8: GEFS -3.2; EPS: -2.5

2/9: GEFS -2.7; EPS: -2.5

2/10: GEFS -2.2; EPS: -2.1

2/12: GEFS -1.2; EPS: -1.1

Actual for 2/13-20: -0.6

Although both did horribly, the EPS was slightly less horrible. I’d go F for GEFS (avg miss -2.0) and F+ for EPS (avg miss -1.8)

That's shocking that the eps busted that bad! I guess the strat didn't connect to the troposphere. It usually does but not this time.

[raindancewx]

Just for future reference - the area of the world that was coldest (v. local means) this winter was NE Russia. Looks very much like the WPO drove the winter pattern in Asia and North America as much as anything.

[Typhoon Tip]

12 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Just for future reference - the area of the world that was coldest (v. local means) this winter was NE Russia. Looks very much like the WPO drove the winter pattern in Asia and North America as much as anything.

Don't have a problem with this assessment based upon observed pattern behavior - persistence therein. 

Trough attenuation tendency, while passing embedded waves through the PNA domain, has been a big issue in failing cyclogen potential (it's actually been true in recent years ). East of ~110 W across the mid latitude continent, there's been a leitmotif where modeled features are too amplified out in time, becoming less as the outlook intervals cross into mid and eventually shorter ranges.  

A lot of that can be explained by local hemisphere index modes. Example, trying to relay an important S/W through an unfavorable PNAP circulation mode, is inherently a negative (destructive) interference.  However, this bias in modeling is noted in +PNA modes, too, when convention implies constructive feed-back should actually increase wave amplitude.

As conjecture, it's a nice intuitive explanation. That the R-wave mechanics, extinguishing the farther down stream from the far E Asian distribution into W Pacific circulation mode we look, is "abandoning" the pattern ( so to speak ...) so S/W mechanics are getting an 'implied' canceling effect from the non-linear function.   Lot of long words but that's what that would be... Metaphor (maybe) is like a wave in the ocean lowering in altitude when it moves back into a deeper water - dropping the floor out from underneath starts canceling the wave amplitude.

It also fits the increased frequency of apparent partial decoupling of the ENSO states wrt to the behavior of the mid latitude westerlies.  If an upstream signal is dominating and happens to be sending an R-wave distribution down stream that is no longer in concert, ... we start hearing a lot more people saying, '... the pattern 'doesn't look very (Nino)(Nina) like'.  Meanwhile, ...we look at the verified distribution of precipitation and temperature anomalies and there's still going to be some vestigial complement to the correlation there - we're not talking absolutes.   The maelstrom of the planet is an integrated ambrosia of different eddy forcing sources, in different quantities, changing in time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Anyone have a good link for WPO data?

This date on this site doesn't seem to be avilable right now...

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/wp.shtml

[raindancewx]

I'm not crazy for thinking the CFS has March 1973 right? I mean...that's an insane month for the West if it even comes to verifying. Top five for snow in the past 100 years I'd guess regionally. It does look like the North Pacific high pressure feature is off in terms of placement east/west, and maybe a touch north of 1973. But it really does look close to March 1973 to me. At this range, the CFS actually has skill for the next month too. It's done pretty well this winter actually.

[michsnowfreak]

6 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I'm not crazy for thinking the CFS has March 1973 right? I mean...that's an insane month for the West if it even comes to verifying. Top five for snow in the past 100 years I'd guess regionally. It does look like the North Pacific high pressure feature is off in terms of placement east/west, and maybe a touch north of 1973. But it really does look close to March 1973 to me. At this range, the CFS actually has skill for the next month too. It's done pretty well this winter actually.

I have noticed the CFS on weatherbell is hell-bent on a cold snap in late March and early April, as are the Euro weeklies. As we all know, the weeklies have been terrible this season, but early spring cold snaps are common in the always mild strong El Nino winter's here. So I wonder if there is merit to that this year? March 1973 was a torch until a big snowstorm hit Michigan St. Patrick's Day.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Anyone have a good link for WPO data?

This date on this site doesn't seem to be avilable right now...

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/teledoc/wp.shtml

Here's an alternative page:

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

[40/70 Benchmark]

52 minutes ago, raindancewx said:

I'm not crazy for thinking the CFS has March 1973 right? I mean...that's an insane month for the West if it even comes to verifying. Top five for snow in the past 100 years I'd guess regionally. It does look like the North Pacific high pressure feature is off in terms of placement east/west, and maybe a touch north of 1973. But it really does look close to March 1973 to me. At this range, the CFS actually has skill for the next month too. It's done pretty well this winter actually.

Not at all...I doubled up on 1973 for March in my Outlook from November.

March Analogs: 1966,1973(X2),1977,1983,1987, 2007, 2010(X2), 2016

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have noticed the CFS on weatherbell is hell-bent on a cold snap in late March and early April, as are the Euro weeklies. As we all know, the weeklies have been terrible this season, but early spring cold snaps are common in the always mild strong El Nino winter's here. So I wonder if there is merit to that this year? March 1973 was a torch until a big snowstorm hit Michigan St. Patrick's Day.

The CFSv2 has had a March 1973-esque pattern since just after the middle of February.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/59981-february-2024/?do=findComment&comment=7232213

While such a pattern has not been a snowy one for parts of southern New England and the Middle Atlantic States, the Great Lakes Region has fared better with a big snowstorm just after mid-March (10.1" in Detroit during March 16-18). It will be interesting to see how the pattern evolves this time around.

[Typhoon Tip]

45 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I have noticed the CFS on weatherbell is hell-bent on a cold snap in late March and early April, as are the Euro weeklies. As we all know, the weeklies have been terrible this season, but early spring cold snaps are common in the always mild strong El Nino winter's here. So I wonder if there is merit to that this year? March 1973 was a torch until a big snowstorm hit Michigan St. Patrick's Day.

That sucker went deep at 500 mb.  

That pattern during the week preceding did bear some resemblance to what's been modeled for/during the first couple of weeks of this March.   

4 days prior to the 17th, 1973

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Here's an alternative page:

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Do you have one for the monthly values?

[michsnowfreak]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That sucker went deep at 500 mb.  

That pattern during the week preceding did bear some resemblance to what's been modeled for/during the first couple of weeks of this March.   

4 days prior to the 17th, 1973

 

March 16-18, 1973 total snowfall:

Toledo, OH: 4.0"

Detroit: 10.1"

Flint: 14.3"

Saginaw: 21.7"

 

Despite that incredible storm, March 1973 stands as the 6th warmest on record for Detroit (behind only 2012, 1945, 1946, 2000, & 1910).

The first half of March (thru the 15th) in 1973 is by far the warmest on record at Detroit, a full 2.5F warmer than 2nd place 2012.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Do you have one for the monthly values?

Unfortunately, I don’t.

[raindancewx]

Google is your friend.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data

[Chinook]

Here are my 250mb wind loops for fall/winter.

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Sep_1_18_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Sep_17_30_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Oct_1_15_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Oct_16_31_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Nov_1_15_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Nov_16_30_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_1_10_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_11_20_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Dec_21_31_2023_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Jan_1_17_2024_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Jan_17_31_2024_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Feb_1_15_2024_250mb_loop.html

https://great-lakes-salsite.web.app/Feb_16_29_2024_250mb_loop.html

 I made all the loops because I wanted to know what was happening far out in the Pacific, and I wanted to organize it so that others can learn from it.

Here are 250mb and 850mb wind anomalies for nearly all of meteorological winter up to a couple of days ago. It looks like the 850mb winds were more likely to transport moisture towards California and Oregon. Otherwise, I think the 250mb wind anomalies are pretty standard for El Nino, but you guys can comment if you want to.

 

[raindancewx]

Canadian is a bit different from the CFS. The absence of heights by Japan is a major change from the winter and should come with some colder systems and/or late Nor'easters for the East Coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, raindancewx said:

Canadian is a bit different from the CFS. The absence of heights by Japan is a major change from the winter and should come with some colder systems and/or late Nor'easters for the East Coast.

I saw that...at this point, I'll believe it when I see it.

[raindancewx]

Remember how I said there would be an incredibly powerful storm around March 1? Check out the blizzard over California the past two days. Welcome to March.

 

[raindancewx]

I've always found it a bit silly to look for a 500 mb profile in ENSO that is typical, and to complain that anything that doesn't match that profile is atypical. It's much more common for ENSO events to go to a temperature profile that matches the typical / atypical idea in comparison to the 500 mb profile.

You essentially had the normal warm North / cool South look from this El Nino, regardless of how you got to it, plus maybe a bit more coolness for the Northwest with the -PDO. 

I'd be more willing to agree with your assessment if the subtropical jet had failed to be strong. But that actually is a direct physical response to ENSO, and it was there. The mid-lattitude stuff that people look for is essentially over fitting trend lines and history in a lot of ways.

[George001]

I’m with Raindance on this. The typical strong Nino response in New England is warm and wet, and well….. it was both a historically warm and historically wet winter here. The overfitting analogy is a great one, it’s easy to think deeper analysis = better, but it doesn’t necessarily work that way. When you are training machine learning models, your accuracy actually begins decreasing after a certain point because the model begins to capture the noise rather than capture the overall trend line. It’s the same idea with this, sometimes the best way to look at it is to zoom out and look at the large scale temp and precip profiles rather than over analyze every 500mb nuance. Just to be clear, I am as guilty as anyone of overanalyzing the 500mb, so im not saying this to take a dig at others. 

[bluewave]

21 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I've always found it a bit silly to look for a 500 mb profile in ENSO that is typical, and to complain that anything that doesn't match that profile is atypical. It's much more common for ENSO events to go to a temperature profile that matches the typical / atypical idea in comparison to the 500 mb profile.

You essentially had the normal warm North / cool South look from this El Nino, regardless of how you got to it, plus maybe a bit more coolness for the Northwest with the -PDO. 

I'd be more willing to agree with your assessment if the subtropical jet had failed to be strong. But that actually is a direct physical response to ENSO, and it was there. The mid-lattitude stuff that people look for is essentially over fitting trend lines and history in a lot of ways.

I removed the original post since you completely missed the points that I was trying to make. I will try to break it down piece by piece in this new post.

While the geographic locations of the temperature anomalies this winter we’re correlated to the El Niño, the magnitude of departures could not simply be reduced to saying it was a result of the El Niño. Sections to the north and the CONUS had their warmest winter on record with departures in spots above +10 against the warmest 30 year climate normals over the 91-20 period. The intensity of this El Niño wasn’t nearly as strong as the past winters which were previous the warmest record holders. So there was much more than just the El Niño going on this winter. 

My reference to the difference in the 500 mb anomalies this winter from past El Niño instances goes to the issue of why the deeper trough which was modeled by the Euro seasonal didn’t occur in the South. 

First, we saw record warmth for the WPAC basin during an El Niño. This is what I was pointing out in this thread last fall. My concern was that the risks to the winter forecasts would be much warmer than the computer models from various centers were indicating. It’s also why one dimensional model forecasts based mostly on El Niño were biased so cold. The more westward forcing even at times back to the eastern IO combined with the El Niño to produce warmth well beyond any seasonal forecast this winter. So these marine heatwaves in the warm forcing areas for North America realized through unusually active MJO 4-7 action for an El Niño contributed to the much warmer departures than a one dimensional El Niño model would suggest. So the more westward forcing for an El Niño would tend to weaken this trough and cold potential  in the south. This forcing combined with the El Niño through the El Niño set of MJO composites also created the stronger 500 mb and ridge and warmth to the north.

A second reason I showed 500 mb charts was to illustrate how different a response we got from the Aleutian low this winter than has typically been the case with stronger El Niños.This was the weakest Aleutian low response we have seen from a stronger El Nino. My guess is this is related to the more westward forcing lean which actually produced a ridge south of the Aleutians and to the NW of Hawaii instead of the trough being forecast by the models. Now you can say this is related to the -PDO and to an extent this is the case. But the -PDO this winter was more defined by the warm waters near Japan and west of the Dateline  rather than the usual cold ring In the east. So we have seen a shift in the way the PDO has be manifesting in recent years. Plus there have been recent studies that the PDO is more of an effect than a cause of the pattern across the North Pacific. This SST pattern may just be an effect of the predominant forcing at any given time.

I would agree with you that the enhanced STJ was one of the more typical El Niño responses this winter which did work out. But the extreme flooding and record rainfall in places like California was stronger in spots than even the 97-98 El Niño which was much stronger could muster. So another example of the overlapping influences this winter.

 

 

[GaWx]

54 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I removed the original post since you completely missed the points that I was trying to make. I will try to break it down piece by piece in this new post.

While the geographic locations of the temperature anomalies this winter we’re correlated to the El Niño, the magnitude of departures could not simply be reduced to saying it was a result of the El Niño. Sections to the north and the CONUS had their warmest winter on record with departures in spots above +10 against the warmest 30 year climate normals over the 91-20 period. The intensity of this El Niño wasn’t nearly as strong as the past winters which were previous the warmest record holders. So there was much more than just the El Niño going on this winter. 

My reference to the difference in the 500 mb anomalies this winter from past El Niño instances goes to the issue of why the deeper trough which was modeled by the Euro seasonal didn’t occur in the South. 

First, we saw record warmth for the WPAC basin during an El Niño. This is what I was pointing out in this thread last fall. My concern was that the risks to the winter forecasts would be much warmer than the computer models from various centers were indicating. It’s also why one dimensional model forecasts based mostly on El Niño were biased so cold. The more westward forcing even at times back to the eastern IO combined with the El Niño to produce warmth well beyond any seasonal forecast this winter. So these marine heatwaves in the warm forcing areas for North America realized through unusually active MJO 4-7 action for an El Niño contributed to the much warmer departures than a one dimensional El Niño model would suggest. So the more westward forcing for an El Niño would tend to weaken this trough and cold potential  in the south. This forcing combined with the El Niño through the El Niño set of MJO composites also created the stronger 500 mb and ridge and warmth to the north.

A second reason I showed 500 mb charts was to illustrate how different a response we got from the Aleutian low this winter than has typically been the case with stronger El Niños.This was the weakest Aleutian low response we have seen from a stronger El Nino. My guess is this is related to the more westward forcing lean which actually produced a ridge south of the Aleutians and to the NW of Hawaii instead of the trough being forecast by the models. Now you can say this is related to the -PDO and to an extent this is the case. But the -PDO this winter was more defined by the warm waters near Japan and west of the Dateline  rather than the usual cold ring In the east. So we have seen a shift in the way the PDO has be manifesting in recent years. Plus there have been recent studies that the PDO is more of an effect than a cause of the pattern across the North Pacific. This SST pattern may just be an effect of the predominant forcing at any given time.

I would agree with you that the enhanced STJ was one of the more typical El Niño responses this winter which did work out. But the extreme flooding and record rainfall in places like California was stronger in spots than even the 97-98 El Niño which was much stronger could muster. So another example of the overlapping influences this winter.

 

 

Keep in mind that if one were to go by RONI or MEI peaks, 2023-4 was a moderate rather than a strong El Niño.

[michsnowfreak]

When it comes to weather analysis, especially locally, I would give myself 10/10 in past climatology and probably 4/10 in all the other factors that make it happen (ENSO, NAO, PDO, etc etc). I understand what atmospheric factors are good/bad for a good/bad winter, but I am really novice when it comes to how they work together and definitely at how to forecast them (I dont ever forecast though lol).

 

I always look at ENSO as one piece of the puzzle. It may be the biggest piece, but there are lots of other pieces that will have somewhat of an effect. The mean of a strong El Nino here is a guaranteed mild winter, and snowfall/precip will very likely finish below normal. But what else happens and how extreme will be dictated by other factors, as sometimes late winter can get cold, and nearly unanimously December will be mild.

 

If i chop this winter into 3rd, by calendar month at Detroit, this is what I get:

DECEMBER 2023- 3rd warmest on record (40.1F), and tho precip was near normal, it was the 2nd least snowy on record (0.1"). Literally as bad as it gets (we did have snow on the ground last 4 days of November tho), but a warm December in a strong El Nino here is basically a 100% surefire bet. Just didnt expect it this warm.

JANUARY 2024- Temps only slightly above avg (27.5F) and this was due to excessive cloudiness causing higher mins. The avg high was actually -0.2F. It was the wettest Jan on record (5.25") and snowfall was above avg at 17.0". It was a good month overall, and the parade of nonstop snow, rain, and ice was quite a surprise for what is supposed to be a dry winter.

FEBRUARY 2024- 3rd warmest on record (37.1F) and 4th driest (0.24"). What a crazy switch from Januarys storminess, as El Ninos "dry" showed up in full force. Despite the warmth, nearly all of the minimal precip we did have was snow (3.1").

DJF 2023-24- 4th warmest on record (34.8F). Precip finished a little above avg (thanks to Jan), which goes against typical Strong Nino climo, although it was nowhere near the top 20 wettest. Snowfall finished below avg, but thanks to Jan, it too was nowhere near the top 20 least snowy DJF's.

 

This is why looking at seasonal averages doesnt always tell the tale. We are all guilty of analyzing final numbers, but if you would have showed me a crystal ball and said these are the final numbers of this strong Nino, I would sigh and probably say "Typical strong Nino. Im not surprised". But I didnt dream the winter would be as wacky as it ended up being. Basically a nightmare of warmth that was masked by a 2 week siege of deep winter in January. We had wind chill warnings and advisories for like 3-4 days straight, and we can EASILY go a good, enjoyable winter without seeing any. Had it been even a more modest stretch of cold, this couldve been the warmest winter on record. The pic below was taken Jan 15th with a temp of 5F and wind chill near -30F. Definitely not my most scenic pic, but its one where you can "feel" the cold. I should change it to B&W and caption "taken during one of the warmest winters on record".