Silas Lang Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 NAM took a huge step towards the Euro. Way more west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Brutal hole for the valley. This track is going to cause a lot of temp issues for valley areas. And with the heaviest rates to the west. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 12z NAM left the GFS camp. I suspect the GFS will now leave quite soon. If one uses the non-Kuchera extrapolated rates, this is the total. By rule in the forum, the map with the most snow must always be used. j/k...but sort of not. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 If modeling locks down that track by the time the Euro runs, somebody start a thread. If it busts, it busts. Nobody will fault you. For now, it is the NAM and snow starts about 60 hours in the southern valley....so just beware of the NAM. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 25 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: NAM took a huge step towards the Euro. Way more west. Yeah, it did for sure. Now let's hope the Euro doesn't go west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 This is the 6z off run of the Euro operational. These snow maps are incomplete as the storm is not finished. I have the last slide of both accumulations and slp/preciptype maps. The control definitely has issues w/ the thermal profile in the valley. I would think the west side of the eastern valley is in a slightly better spot with this set-up as downsloping is less here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: WPC projects an inverted trough back over Roan Mt. As it has slowed down it has kept moving further into long range for the Hi Res models, so hopefully still time for a few more adjustments for those of us on the plateau, lol. Remind me why the inverted trough is good. I know it helps, but I always forget about how that actually works. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Temps are becoming a serious issue across models. RGEM is abysmal. Even NAM is absolutely borderline for a lot of people. We are losing the cold pretty quickly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just now, fountainguy97 said: Temps are becoming a serious issue across models. RGEM is abysmal. Even NAM is absolutely borderline for a lot of people. We are losing the cold pretty quickly. We need that system to crank. Has time of day changed? That would cause thermal profile issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Meanwhile, this look waaaaay out there is prime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: We need that system to crank. Has time of day changed? That would cause thermal profile issues. Yeah it's mid-day now.. this earlier cutoff has slowed us down to peak daytime heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just now, fountainguy97 said: Temps are becoming a serious issue across models. RGEM is abysmal. Even NAM is absolutely borderline for a lot of people. We are losing the cold pretty quickly. This is one of these systems that might lollipop somebody. Three years ago the Plateau had a storm which was quite similar almost at the exact time of year. We had a robotics tournament in Cookeville, and the Plateau had been hammered. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just now, fountainguy97 said: Yeah it's mid-day now.. this earlier cutoff has slowed us down to peak daytime heating. That is the problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 The 12k NAM, and who knows if it is right at this range, has precip starting about midnight on Saturday night. The best dynamics for snow aren't until mid-day Sunday. Best case scenario is the rain changes to snow Saturday night. That would cool the air column and keep it snow. If we are having to get marginal temps to cool during the middle of the day on Sunday...might be tough sledding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 The 12z GFS is rolling. I expect it to look like the NAM. I could be wrong, but I bet it budges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I wonder if I should go on a chase to Crossville, TN. I think they may do well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 At 18hours, it is already slower w/ the energy out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just now, Blizzard22 said: I wonder if I should go on a chase to Crossville, TN. I think they may do well. MRX mentions there is a lot of uncertainty w/ the western extent of precip. Crossville would be my early frontrunner. We will see what 12z brings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 The 12z definitely has thermal issues, but precip arrives overnight Saturday. It definitely has broken towards the Euro now. The question is modeling done trending westward. IDK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z definitely has thermal issues, but precip arrives overnight Saturday. It definitely has broken towards the Euro now. The question is modeling done trending westward. IDK. I've seen these 3 day trends stop and then reverse abt 25% up to game time. Who knows with this setup. The good news is the euro is still the extreme west guidance. Will be interesting to see it's 12z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: I've seen these 3 day trends stop and then reverse abt 25% up to game time. Who knows with this setup. The good news is the euro is still the extreme west guidance. Will be interesting to see it's 12z run. We take that run and run with it in NE TN. I suspect we see one more shift west, and then maybe a slight jog east. Bullseye is now 2000' on the Plateau and Smokies I think w/ Cumberlands, NE TN(?), SE KY, SW VA, and W NC sitting in a good spot. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 12z CMC is also rolling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Seems like this thing is trending slower as well. Wonder if we could trend to a more ideal period of snow on Sunday night as opposed to the day time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Seems like this thing is trending slower as well. Wonder if we could trend to a more ideal period of snow on Sunday night as opposed to the day time? It is possible. FWIW, the Canadian is a good track, but woefully bad time of day. Noon is not when we want to see snowstorms during mid Feb. This track could produce some lollipops. Of all modeling, the CMC in this set-up is probably not the go to. That said, it usually would be the coldest - doh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 I will likely be in a meeting as the Euro rolls. Hold down the fort!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: This is one of these systems that might lollipop somebody. Three years ago the Plateau had a storm which was quite similar almost at the exact time of year. We had a robotics tournament in Cookeville, and the Plateau had been hammered. February 7, 2021, or a different one? That was one of the prettiest snows I've seen in Crossville on the trees 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 40 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: February 7, 2021, or a different one? That was one of the prettiest snows I've seen in Crossville on the trees I am thinking 2020. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: We take that run and run with it in NE TN. I suspect we see one more shift west, and then maybe a slight jog east. Bullseye is now 2000' on the Plateau and Smokies I think w/ Cumberlands, NE TN(?), SE KY, SW VA, and W NC sitting in a good spot. 2000' on the plateau you say.... May be the best superbowl party ever haha Canadian trend is less snow overall, plateau barely gets an inch. 3 to 4 inches inches mountains with a dollop of 6+ in the south apps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 2000' on the plateau you say.... May be the best superbowl party ever haha Canadian trend is less snow overall, plateau barely gets an inch. 3 to 4 inches inches mountains with a dollop of 6+ in the south appsQPF is less on the Canadian so this isn’t a more rain less snow unless I’m looking at it wrong. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Jog northwest indeed is on recent model runs (NWP) 12Z Thursday. NWP could still jog a little more northwest into Friday, but from there it should stabilize. For some more NW is good. For others here, it's already approaching the sweet spot. Inverted trough helps low level convergence. Mountains also play a role, kind of like an inverted lee trough. All help surface convergence. Cold core could fix most problems if the temp is 40 at the beginning. Exception is Chattanooga because a northeast wind is downslope, and keeps it warmer. Knoxville NE wind is basically neutral. Yeah gentle downslope down the Great Valley, but not like off the Mountains for Chatty. I'm not too worried about time of day yet. If snow starts sticking overnight, it'll be fine in the morning. There's some causation there, but mostly correlation; if snow is sticking, it's cold enough. Cold, not just existing snow, would be the common helper. I think that concludes my eight cents worth, two cents on four above thoughts. I'm pretty optimistic for much of East Tennessee outside of Chattanooga (though we could) and even the Plateau. My gut says this will turn out from Knoxville east and north. Given the northwest NWP trends, the Cumberland Plateau should get snow too. GFS Georgia lala land aside, 12Z Thursday NWP (06Z Euro) keeps the TROWAL feature* going up that way. Finally we all talk about a little expansion on the north side of the snow shield. * See WAA from the northeast into the cold core at 850/700 mb on most NWP. 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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