Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 34 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Do we want the storm to become stronger to pull more west? What is the mechanism that keeps it towards TN and not too far east? Thinking more about that good question...I say let it rip in terms of strength. We are going to need that to overcome temps. We want cold air crashing into the NW quadrant. I think we only get that if it deepens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Also, downsloping along the western foothills is definitely a concern if cold air is not in place and is being manufactured. The 12z NAM shows that downsloping effect quite well. W NC is cold and E TN is in the mid 40s. Need this to hit at night. What is the timing on this? I haven't even looked. Pretty much all models have a rain to snow event for us. starts 3amish Sunday morning and peaking around sunrise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Thinking more about that good question...I say let it rip in terms of strength. We are going to need that to overcome temps. We want cold air crashing into the NW quadrant. I think we only get that if it deepens. Not saying this one will happen, but our best snowstorms have occurred during the day when temps from 48-72 hours out were projected to be in the low 40's and what ended up happening was 33 and heavy snow. Also in very similar scenarios to this I have witnessed downsloping be a non-factor even though the flow on radar is directly over the mountains from SE to NW. Just a FWIW as we try and figure out if this potential system has legs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: Not saying this one will happen, but our best snowstorms have occurred during the day when temps from 48-72 hours out were projected to be in the low 40's and what ended up happening was 33 and heavy snow. Also in very similar scenarios to this I have witnessed downsloping be a non-factor even though the flow on radar is directly over the mountains from SE to NW. Just a FWIW as we try and figure out if this potential system has legs. I am in favor of this remark. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: Not saying this one will happen, but our best snowstorms have occurred during the day when temps from 48-72 hours out were projected to be in the low 40's and what ended up happening was 33 and heavy snow. Also in very similar scenarios to this I have witnessed downsloping be a non-factor even though the flow on radar is directly over the mountains from SE to NW. Just a FWIW as we try and figure out if this potential system has legs. I think the saving grace with this is the fact we "should" have amounts already on the ground by sun-up. There are a lot of factors to limit accums but if we can manage a good coating before sunrise we should be ok. Wet ground, warm temps, sun. Thats a lot of things cutting into totals. I'd cut Kuchera in half probably. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: I think the saving grace with this is the fact we "should" have amounts already on the ground by sun-up. There are a lot of factors to limit accums but if we can manage a good coating before sunrise we should be ok. Wet ground, warm temps, sun. Thats a lot of things cutting into totals. I'd cut Kuchera in half probably. Oddly, if it is a big storm, I rarely worry about ground temps. Those can be overcome. Heavy rates trump. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 12z GFS is rolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 You all who have been watching this closely for a couple of days...should be able to spot trends early as it is under 84 hours now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: You all who have been watching this closely for a couple of days...should be able to spot trends early as it is under 84 hours now. Yeah trends have really turned into ticks. GFS is the only model further east. We will see where it goes here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 It's always hard to extrapolate, but at 500 it's a touch deeper and sharper at 30. Would be surprised if it doesn't come in further west than 6z. Flow is definitely backing by 36. This one should be further west than 6z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 I am gonna roll with the GFS being west of 6z. It is digging every so lightly more at 36. But truly...IDK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, tnweathernut said: It's always hard to extrapolate, but at 500 it's a touch deeper and sharper at 30. Would be surprised if it doesn't come in further west than 6z. Flow is definitely backing by 36. This one should be further west than 6z. LOL. You got me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 12z maybe a TOUCH better. But its still by far the most progressive model compared to any of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, fountainguy97 said: 12z maybe a TOUCH better. But its still by far the most progressive model compared to any of them. Can u see past 66h? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Can u see past 66h? no. 69hrs. its maybe 25miles further west than last run. I guess better than nothing haha It is further east by 100 miles over any model from 00z to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Knoxtron Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The 6z Euro control(and I checked) picks up almost exactly where the operational stops. For those new to the Euro off-run, it doesn't go out as far. So, you have to look at the control run of the ensemble to see where it would have gone. It is waaaay west from 0z. I'll take the 6-10" amounts on the plateau if I gotta Man this is gonna be interesting! May need to setup a time-lapse if we trend well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 Looks super similar to 6z...just slower. That slow down "could" produce a more westward component to the trajectory if that trend continues. Slower usually results in westward down the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 The other thing is the 12z GFS does not appear to have a consolidated center as it seems to have one foot in the faster solution and one foot in the slower....slightly double barrel in nature. Someone remind me...doesn't NC have a weird teleconnection to phase 4-5 of the MJO? @Met1985, do you remember that study that @GaWxhad at one time. In other words, right in the middle of that warm tour...NC scores more often than not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 FWIW, the 12z GFS looks like it has a feedback issue w/ stalling this just west of Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 Looks like it has slowed on the CMC as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Looks super similar to 6z...just slower. That slow down "could" produce a more westward component to the trajectory if that trend continues. Slower usually results in westward down the line. Yeah a miss to the east BUT it did come west abt 25miles. Moisture just still doesn't make it over. 12z CMC coming in identical to NAM. GFS continues to be the outlier. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: The other thing is the 12z GFS does not appear to have a consolidated center as it seems to have one foot in the faster solution and one foot in the slower....slightly double barrel in nature. Someone remind me...doesn't NC have a weird teleconnection to phase 4-5 of the MJO? @Met1985, do you remember that study that @GaWxhad at one time. In other words, right in the middle of that warm tour...NC scores more often than not. That's a great question for sure Carver. Im not sure myself but maybe @GaWx could come up with something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 7 minutes ago, Met1985 said: That's a great question for sure Carver. Im not sure myself but maybe @GaWx could come up with something. I ask selfishly, because sometimes that works out for E TN as well. I seem to remember that phase 3-4 has a weird correlation to snow in your area. I filed that away just because it is unusual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 9 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Yeah a miss to the east BUT it did come west abt 25miles. Moisture just still doesn't make it over. 12z CMC coming in identical to NAM. GFS continues to be the outlier. Very steady look by the CMC. For once, can the GFS actually be too progressive this winter, and live up to its old bias...LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, Carvers Gap said: I ask selfishly, because sometimes that works out for E TN as well. I seem to remember that phase 3-4 has a weird correlation to snow in your area. I filed that away just because it is unusual. Yeah you are possible right. Especially in February there may be something weird about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, Carvers Gap said: Very steady look by the CMC. For once, can the GFS actually be too progressive this winter, and live up to its old bias...LOL. I do think it's being too progressive at this point. I think it'll correct today or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Met1985 said: I do think it's being too progressive at this point. I think it'll correct today or tomorrow. Re: 12z....The CMC backed further west around 96. The GFS looked like it was going to early in its run. The big thing I notice is that it is slowing down. That might allow for a bigger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Honestly, the presentation at 500 on numerous modeling has all the earmarks of a southern apps tree snapper. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Re: 12z....The CMC backed further west around 96. The GFS looked like it was going to early in its run. The big thing I notice is that it is slowing down. That might allow for a bigger storm. Yeah I just posted the cmc snow map and it gets yall involved and to me a more realistic look at this point. I think it does slow especially when turning negative tilt. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Dp's ahead of the system may be of help in area's where temps are well above 0c as evaporational cooling would drop t's rapidly, especially if precip is heavy enough. So, if say, the Nam's correct in it's depiction and 40's are in E.Tenn. that may very well take care of that.We've all witnessed that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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