Jesse from KY Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 From their latest discussion: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 29 minutes ago, Jesse from KY said: NWS Jackson is currently thinking around an inch overall: They're basically following Euro looks like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 37 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: MRX is starting to downplay the backside snow. Not that they ever played it up or anything but they are saying the mods are trending away from snow. I haven’t been able to looked deep into the mods but reading this board gave me the impression that we held steady or maybe got a little better today. . The UKIE and Euro were slightly better, the UKIE had been showing 0 in Tennessee at 0z and almost 0 in Kentucky. Now it shows .5 to 1 inch over the western 2/3rds of the area. The Euro went from maybe .25 inches across more western areas to some .5 to 1+ inch amounts. The GFS and Canadian are basically in the 1-3 inch range for a lot of the area. We should get more into the short range wheelhouse in the next 24-36 hours. The RGEM is usually pretty good with these type events. Better than the NAM as a rule. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The Euro also appears to show a period of sleet as the change over happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Agree, guess they view GFS as a bit of an outsider or 18z trended less. Sent from my SM-F721U using TapatalkIt might be our last bullet in the mag but it’s never a bad thing when MRX starts talking down on a system Obviously kidding here…. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 1 hour ago, John1122 said: The UKIE and Euro were slightly better, the UKIE had been showing 0 in Tennessee at 0z and almost 0 in Kentucky. Now it shows .5 to 1 inch over the western 2/3rds of the area. The Euro went from maybe .25 inches across more western areas to some .5 to 1+ inch amounts. The GFS and Canadian are basically in the 1-3 inch range for a lot of the area. We should get more into the short range wheelhouse in the next 24-36 hours. The RGEM is usually pretty good with these type events. Better than the NAM as a rule. Yeah, you're right on as usual brother. Rgem has shown to be the best, overall, irt snowfall projections for our area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The RGEM looks good out West at the end. We will see if 0z has that snow spreading East. GFS was in finger mode still with good spots and bad but its insistent on moisture being behind the front and that's what matters. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Anyone notice the clipper on the 18z GFS after the storm. Would be nice to get snow while we've been below freezing for a few days. With the deep cold behind this system a clipper can drop a nice high ratio snow.Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 The RGEM looks good out West at the end. We will see if 0z has that snow spreading East. GFS was in finger mode still with good spots and bad but its insistent on moisture being behind the front and that's what matters. I had forgotten about the RGEM and yes it’s always good when it supports us. Would the meso mods help out any trying to get a better feel where the enhanced streamers might set up at? Speaking of the RGEM… I remember for the March system, it kept sniffing out that isolated heavy snowfall from N Knox Co down through W Knox Co into Roan, Loudon and McMinn. Sure enough it nailed that prediction. I was on the upper end of that and picked up 7-8” while a few miles north of me got 3-4”. My buddy in Farragut ended up with 10”. Friend of mine in Athens Tn got 4-5” when no mods except for the NAM and RGEM gave them several inches. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 Anyone notice the clipper on the 18z GFS after the storm. Would be nice to get snow while we've been below freezing for a few days. With the deep cold behind this system a clipper can drop a nice high ratio snow.Sent from my SM-F721U using TapatalkThat’s the thing I’m hoping for with the mods struggling to pick up on burps in the flow. A feature after the main event is still 6 days away. No telling what might pop up after we are able to sample the cutter and add in real info. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted December 19, 2022 Author Share Posted December 19, 2022 15 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Anyone notice the clipper on the 18z GFS after the storm. Would be nice to get snow while we've been below freezing for a few days. With the deep cold behind this system a clipper can drop a nice high ratio snow. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk CMC also had the clipper around the same timeframe 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 ETN punt... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 ETN punt.... 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 23 minutes ago, Icy Hot said: ETN punt... 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse from KY Posted December 19, 2022 Share Posted December 19, 2022 52 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Anyone notice the clipper on the 18z GFS after the storm. Would be nice to get snow while we've been below freezing for a few days. With the deep cold behind this system a clipper can drop a nice high ratio snow. Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk I noticed that as well. Hopefully it will continue to show up and eventually pan out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 The NAM is coming in with a fast hard thump on the back end for a few areas. I think it would be more consolidated. Should have a much better handle in the next 48 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 RGEM is better than the NAM. Still at the very edge of their range but I still believe there's a good shot snow showers will sweep to Western NC. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 It may go down in flames but the GFS isn't backing down. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 It looks to me like the GFS is slowly catching onto the magnitude of the cold. If you toggle between the last 3 runs, there is an ever so slow but steady movement eastward in the speed of the cold, maybe 25-30miles faster east, each time, but it seems to be taking very small baby steps in the right direction. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 4 minutes ago, John1122 said: It may go down in flames but the GFS isn't backing down. Actually not a bad GFS run. Snow totals were up. It looks like the cold is coming faster if you look at the trends. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Actually not a bad GFS run. Snow totals were up. It looks like the cold is coming faster if you look at the trends. Best run of the GFS in the last 24 hours!Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Clipper looks super stout behind the storm also on the 0z GFS.Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Actually meant to chime in earlier but, recently spoke with KMRX about the forecasts they put out and what input is used. They said they use the NBM. So, that explains the low forecasted snow Total they put out this afternoon. So, unless more come inline with the GFS and RGEM they'll continue with the low forecasted amounts. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 2 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said: Best run of the GFS in the last 24 hours! Sent from my SM-F721U using Tapatalk It would be nice for this to hold steady or trend better. Really don't think this will be a huge snow event, but I would be ecstatic with 1 to 2 inches like the GFS was showing. I don't think the ceiling is much higher for most as that would take some major adjustments with the storm path. Guess we just got to hope the cold is as fast as advertised. That doesn't always work out, but it's a possibility. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Use caution because it is the CMC, it did look ever so slightly better for the pre-Christmas storm, but look at Tues! That is how you get a clipper to hook up with the Gulf of Mexico, spawn a low pressure, and make a powerful winter storm! That system is strong enough to bring some warm nose issues up into the eastern valley though, more of a snow to sleet/rain mix and back to light snow at the end. Middle and West TN, North MS and AL fare better than east TN but East TN does ok with it 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 19 minutes ago, Jed33 said: Use caution because it is the CMC, it did look ever so slightly better for the pre-Christmas storm, but look at Tues! That is how you get a clipper to hook up with the Gulf of Mexico, spawn a low pressure, and make a powerful winter storm! That system is strong enough to bring some warm nose issues up into the eastern valley though, more of a snow to sleet/rain mix and back to light snow at the end. Middle and West TN, North MS and AL fare better than east TN but East TN does ok with it I'd definitely take the 7 inches the Canadian gave me that run. You'll often see storms attack as the cold air leaves. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 1 hour ago, Jed33 said: Use caution because it is the CMC, it did look ever so slightly better for the pre-Christmas storm, but look at Tues! That is how you get a clipper to hook up with the Gulf of Mexico, spawn a low pressure, and make a powerful winter storm! That system is strong enough to bring some warm nose issues up into the eastern valley though, more of a snow to sleet/rain mix and back to light snow at the end. Middle and West TN, North MS and AL fare better than east TN but East TN does ok with it Sadly it’s the CMC. I don’t remember it ever being right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 06 NAM has heavy snow working across the state, laying down 1-3 inches but it just dies out as it reaches the western Plateau. The 0z RGEM did as well, but the 06z RGEM pushed snow into East Tennessee. We are still about 24 hours from really beginning to get into the wheelhouse of those two. The Euro is still completely Grinchy regarding backside snow, but as I've mentioned, it took until around 24-30 hours out before the Euro caught on that it was going to snow on the back side in 2020. Same for the UKIE. The GFS was steady until about 60 hours out and then it lost the 2020 storm for about a days worth of runs and came back around 30 hours out. The RGEM handled things the best. Hopefully it leads the way here. Euro is also grinchy on the second system the GFS and GGEM see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 The cold is insane on the RGEM. It has me at 1 degree at 1pm Friday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted December 20, 2022 Share Posted December 20, 2022 Euro moved more south and East at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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