cyclone77 Posted February 21, 2023 Share Posted February 21, 2023 54 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Indications are March won't be tame. Just a question of details and who gets what. March gonna come in like a Lion and go out like a Viking? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Let's see if we get a big March snowstorm. All guidance looking cold mid March. I'd pump the brakes on that for now. Originally, very extended/long range guidance favored a flip to cold/wintry for the final 1/3rd of Feb, then it got pushed back to early March, and now it's more towards the transition into mid-March. The assault on the SPV has made things quite volatile, with the continued evolution of the MJO a big factor as well (Which continues to support a not so cold/wintry outcome into mid-March). The MJO has most definitely been overpowering any real effect of the SPV assault (Which has been ongoing for a month now) across the CONUS, that's for sure. Yes, long range guidance does show things (Such as teleconnections) shifting in the very long/extended range. Of note is a significant Scandinavian/European ridge retrograding towards Greenland, and eventually into Canada and the Northeastern CONUS... Which would lead you to believe that would push any remaining cold down into portions of the CONUS, though the Western and North-Central US may be favored if the -PNA regime continues. So that doesn't necessarily mean around here, and also given the struggles of guidance at that range, I'd wait up to another week before putting stock into it. That all reminds me, I never did get out a post regarding the final 1/3rd of February. In the end, it doesn't matter much, as it's a continuation of what we saw for the middle 1/3rd of February across the CONUS. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 29 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I'd pump the brakes on that for now. Originally, very extended/long range guidance favored a flip to cold/wintry for the final 1/3rd of Feb, then it got pushed back to early March, and now it's more towards the transition into mid-March. The assault on the SPV has made things quite volatile, with the continued evolution of the MJO a big factor as well (Which continues to support a not so cold/wintry outcome into mid-March). The MJO has most definitely been overpowering any real effect of the SPV assault (Which has been ongoing for a month now) across the CONUS, that's for sure. Yes, long range guidance does show things (Such as teleconnections) shifting in the very long/extended range. Of note is a significant Scandinavian/European ridge retrograding towards Greenland, and eventually into Canada and the Northeastern CONUS... Which, would lead you to believe that would push any remaining cold down into portions of the CONUS, though the Western and North-Central US may be favored if the -PNA regime continues. So that doesn't necessarily mean around here, and also given the struggles of guidance at that range, I'd wait up to another week before putting stock into it. That all reminds me, I never did get out a post regarding the final 1/3rd of February. In the end, it doesn't matter much, as it's a continuation of what we saw for the middle 1/3rd of February across the CONUS. He just needs to give it up. More winter isn't happening this year for the ORD->DTW corridor. But he doesn't want spring either. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 2 hours ago, RogueWaves said: He just needs to give it up. More winter isn't happening this year for the ORD->DTW corridor. But he doesn't want spring either. Spring isn't happening . Jokes aside, I'd easily bet money that ORD-DTW gets more winter. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 I've gotten as skeptical as anybody when it comes to this winter, but honestly just kind of have a gut feeling that I haven't seen my biggest snow yet this season (of course the bar is pretty low) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 That system early next week isn't much to look at from a wintry perspective, but I'm still a bit interested in seeing if pans out. Don't get a surface low of that progged strength that far south in the sub very often at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 15 hours ago, CheeselandSkies said: 2018 had pretty widespread/significant river flooding in southern Wisconsin, although it started later in the summer and continued into spring 2019 in some areas. Then there was 2008... 2004 spring flooding was even better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Oh Morch, where art thou going? 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 Keep some form of ridge in the SE and have it fight that strong cold from the north => we could have some fun 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 I'm telling you right now...this is gonna be the big one for us. GFS has a storm, too, but it'll come around and slide west soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: I'm telling you right now...this is gonna be the big one for us. GFS has a storm, too, but it'll come around and slide west soon. I just posted this in the March discussion thread but it's worth repeating. They're getting excited in new england for multiple threats. And southern ne has had a far worse Winter than us. Every subforum has your crowd of "it's been a bad Winter so it's not going to snow in March" and some of them are gonna be dead wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 9 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: I'm telling you right now...this is gonna be the big one for us. GFS has a storm, too, but it'll come around and slide west soon. Incredible depiction on the 12z Euro. 974 mb low in Arkansas (yes Arkansas) moving northeast, though doesn't strengthen much further. 70 kts in the CCB as it moves from the MS Valley into the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 ^What could go wrong this far out? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 A 974mb low near Little Rock, AR? What is the deepest a mid-latitude cyclone has gotten in Arkansas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 That euro fantasy storm will trend drier and weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 29 minutes ago, bdgwx said: A 974mb low near Little Rock, AR? What is the deepest a mid-latitude cyclone has gotten in Arkansas? About 976 mb, back in February 1960. The record low pressure at Little Rock is around 980 mb. So basically, the Euro is pushing the boundaries. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, madwx said: That euro fantasy storm will trend drier and weaker. By default. It basically has no other choice but to trend weaker in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 nice bomb, classic euro stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 19 hours ago, RogueWaves said: He just needs to give it up. More winter isn't happening this year for the ORD->DTW corridor. But he doesn't want spring either. 17 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Spring isn't happening . Jokes aside, I'd easily bet money that ORD-DTW gets more winter. I mean yea, there most definitely will be more opportunity. Whether any of it works out or is interesting enough remains the question. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 looks active at min, nice not to be worrying about drought heading into spring 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 33 and rain has me posting fantasy Euro storms. Sad! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: looks active at min, nice not to be worrying about drought heading into spring Active is something we've had going for us more often than not this winter at least. With that continuing, time for repeated hydro issues. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Obviously but 18z GFS had an insane ice storm toward the end of the run. Some areas get freezing rain for like 36 hours. Catastrophic may not be a strong enough word. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Obviously but 18z GFS had an insane ice storm toward the end of the run. Some areas get freezing rain for like 36 hours. Catastrophic may not be a strong enough word. Fun to look at though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 8 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Fun to look at though. Indeed. Even half of that accreting in the main band would probably be like a 1 in 100 year event for a given location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hardypalmguy Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Indeed. Even half of that accreting in the main band would probably be like a 1 in 100 year event for a given location.Let’s do it. 1976 style. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said: Let’s do it. 1976 style. Was that the storm that supposedly had reports of 5” ice build ups? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 00z Euro going ape. 965 mb low near STL. Not sure I've seen that modeled before. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 Sub 960 mb. Holy **** 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Sub 960 mb. Holy **** lol 958mb at hour 216. And still primarily a rainer 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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