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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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MAG with some interesting thoughts. Wish we had some more Mets around here. You go to the northeast threads and there is 4+. Regardless always good to get some thoughts from an expert.

 

Most guidance has been supportive of at least a couple inches generally from the metro north, which I’d feel okay about. The big question is the south of the metro and how much warm advection precip can actually manage its way up into the rest of SW PA early, like especially prior to and near 12z. It’ll snow anywhere if there’s a more expansive precip shield that gets into PA early enough. 

Even without much of that, the main part of the system with the direct southerly flow straight from the Gulf of Mexico could still yield a start as snow with pretty heavy rates even in further SW PA but obviously time would really be limited there before the column temps get routed and then the dry slot arrives. 

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Yeah, simplistically speaking, the unfortunate trend in the short-term models has been to dry this thing out (compare each run from 0Z yesterday to 0Z today).  Areas adjacent to the deform band under subsidence will have the normal issues.

I feel like I've spent too much time on this thing, to be honest.  We can nowcast but I wonder if even 1" for the southern areas of Allegheny looks like a generous prediction.  We'll be warming into the 40s and raining so most will be lost anyway.

We really are masochists around these parts.

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Temperature outside is 24F right now which is below the 03z temps on the 00z GFS, 3k NAM, and FV3 for my lat/lon.  This is also confirmed via nearby mesonet reporters whose temperatures are verified to the point that they can serve as inputs for model runs.

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22 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Incredible dry slot.  This winter truly sucks.

Dry slot, what dry slot? Gotta love this region.. lol 

dryslot.gif.633fb95c7491a0749601c535a5d0d6d6.gif

To be fair, we had a pretty good idea for at least 24 hours this was going to be the outcome, but you can never be 100% until nowcast time. Still think there is a shot at a brief but moderate to heavy burst when that main slug moves in if we can hold onto temps long enough. Surface temperatures are already 32-34 through the area for the most part, but I could see that cool briefly under heavier precip rates. 

Roads were all pre-treated and with marginal temperatures will probably be minimal impact. This has all the hallmarks of being one of those events were people bitch and moan about how meteorologists suck especially with the impending "winter storm" making headlines on the evening news last night. I can hear it now, wheres the snow, I stayed home / worked from home / my kids school was delayed for this?:lol:

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Writing was on the wall whenever we kept seeing the frontogenesis band get weaker and further north on the mesoscale models. I warned people who texted me that this was most likely gonna bust. Don't worry we will get blocking in April. 

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Well, not really a surprise.  Will be interesting to see if we get any accumulation.  It's not even snowing all that hard in Morgantown which means quite a bit of virga and dry air abounds.  As the 850 gets closer we will saturate, and as Ritual mentioned we might get some CAA to temporarily cool us.  But then how long before the changeover.

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What would blocking in April do to our weather?

15 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Writing was on the wall whenever we kept seeing the frontogenesis band get weaker and further north on the mesoscale models. I warned people who texted me that this was most likely gonna bust. Don't worry we will get blocking in April. 

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5 minutes ago, Homie J said:

What would blocking in April do to our weather?

I was just making a joke but most likely it would be a cold and miserable month. Snow would be possible but snow in April is gone in an hour.

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Can't wait for rain in an hour.  What I really don't want to see is heavy rain that looks like it aims for us.  The snow then dry slot depiction on the models yesterday was preferable, not the dry slot, some snow then heavy rain.

I'm over winter.  I don't care what happens in February.

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