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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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  • 2 weeks later...
2 hours ago, snowsux said:

Man, I find myself missing Kevin Benson a lot lately. Too bad he got caught driving his Taurus drunk and high on coke like he did. I wonder what he's up to these days. Sure do miss him on channel 11. 

I don't really go to church anymore but he used to be an usher at the church I belong to. He may still go, I'd have to ask my parents.

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Mid-month we transition to a neutral or +PNA, usher in a big -NAO block, and seem to keep the -EPO and -AO.  Those are the good things.  It's possible we're breaking the pattern down too quickly and delay by a week or so, which for the white Christmas lovers wouldn't be a bad thing, necessarily.

The issue for me is whether that -NAO manifests as too strong and acts as a true block over 40N.  That would be great if you live in Raleigh, but for us it's potentially bad news.  The placement retrogrades west enough to entice us.

December of 2010 wasn't bad here at 12.2" total.  It's a top analog.  It would require more research, though, to determine how exactly we got that snow over the month.  Was it synoptic or just lots of little lake events?

Long-term, I don't think any pattern is locked-in.  We're in a volatile situation where La Nina corrodes and leaves us with a sort of bouncing atmosphere.

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7 minutes ago, jwilson said:

Mid-month we transition to a neutral or +PNA, usher in a big -NAO block, and seem to keep the -EPO and -AO.  Those are the good things.  It's possible we're breaking the pattern down too quickly and delay by a week or so, which for the white Christmas lovers wouldn't be a bad thing, necessarily.

The issue for me is whether that -NAO manifests as too strong and acts as a true block over 40N.  That would be great if you live in Raleigh, but for us it's potentially bad news.  The placement retrogrades west enough to entice us.

December of 2010 wasn't bad here at 12.2" total.  It's a top analog.  It would require more research, though, to determine how exactly we got that snow over the month.  Was it synoptic or just lots of little lake events?

Long-term, I don't think any pattern is locked-in.  We're in a volatile situation where La Nina corrodes and leaves us with a sort of bouncing atmosphere.

That's my "concern" as well, to much of a good thing if its too strong and all the storms get pushed well underneath us and off the coast.

I think at a minimum though if that pattern materializes we will feel the cold, and likely see some little lake enhanced things as you say. 

Volatile is key, lots of pendulum swings as patterns break down / reload. 

Should be fun to see how it all evolves.

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Can't help but feel this pattern is either going to be cold and dry (east coast cashing in), or just a total bust (warmer and wetter than expected).

18z GFS was about the worst model run you could possibly get for what’s supposed to be a good winter pattern.

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7 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Granted it's a sloppy mess but it's light years different from 18z

69Bt6VF.png

 

6z GFS has a similar storm. Euro, on the other hand, has a cutter and is warm through 240. So unfortunately we’ve now seen the bad scenario pop up on both models. Still time to change, I guess.

Canadian for what it’s worth tracks a low right over us and gives us rain, but at least it’s not a torch.

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6 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Interesting for a supposed great pattern I was hearing about elsewhere.  Maybe the pattern is right and the models are wrong, or maybe the reverse.  We kind of know how this goes though.  We can only hope for the best.

Almost seems like we just went through this for a solid month and a half last winter or something.

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I admit I'm not too focused on discrete storms or threats just yet.  Mostly watching the upper atmosphere and seeing if it cooperates.  Getting something on the front-end of a potential pattern change would be a big win, however.

For now I think we're simply in a holding pattern.  These are OP runs so the usual caveat, but the 0Z Euro from yesterday compared to today are starkly different in developing a better pacific (incoming -EPO versus positive and a more natural +PNA look).

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1 hour ago, jwilson said:

I admit I'm not too focused on discrete storms or threats just yet.  Mostly watching the upper atmosphere and seeing if it cooperates.  Getting something on the front-end of a potential pattern change would be a big win, however.

For now I think we're simply in a holding pattern.  These are OP runs so the usual caveat, but the 0Z Euro from yesterday compared to today are starkly different in developing a better pacific (incoming -EPO versus positive and a more natural +PNA look).

Was it better yesterday or today?

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1 minute ago, TimB said:

12z GFS is falling in line with the Euro. Game over on the 12/9 threat.

Wild swings from run to run so maybe too early to write if off completely. It is looking like the good pattern is getting pushed more into mid month though. 

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1 minute ago, dj3 said:

Wild swings from run to run so maybe too early to write if off completely. It is looking like the good pattern is getting pushed more into mid month though. 

That seems to be the general consensus. Week before Christmas or so. I’m cool with that if it actually happens and we don’t get a rerun of last year. Though I guess I’d take a rerun of last year over a rerun of 2016-17 or 2018-19 or 2019-20.

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Lmao we never learn our lesson. Not saying it will change for the better but we are almost a week out. We've seen major shifts 2 or so days out. Honestly if we sacrifice the 9th for better wintry weather around Christmas then I'd say let it happen. Of course the trends are not good but still have to monitor it.

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11 minutes ago, TimB said:

That seems to be the general consensus. Week before Christmas or so. I’m cool with that if it actually happens and we don’t get a rerun of last year. Though I guess I’d take a rerun of last year over a rerun of 2016-17 or 2018-19 or 2019-20.

Yea I agree I wouldn't mind pushing it back if we have a wintry Christmas week. 

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7 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Don't the models lose the storms around this time only to bring them back around 4-5 days?  Just trying to find a path to a storm at this point, lol.

From what I'm reading in the NE forum highly anomalous blocking events can lead to trouble with modeling while the block is getting established. Also I think we are so starved to track something we have to realize this storm is still over a week out lol so not that unreasonable to expect big shifts. 

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