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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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Keep in mind, models tend to exaggerate pattern changes, even transient flips.  They move too quickly.  I said it earlier that the change might be appearing too soon in model land.  It's more likely to be a gradual shift with lull days in-between.

If we get to the 15th or 20th and the better looks still aren't established under 7 days, then it's probably fair time to wonder if a change will happen at all.  Though you still need to see how the indices adjusted in that period.

Basically, if the pacific hasn't improved in the last few days (and it hasn't), then the long-term better looks will keep getting pushed back.  Really, this is typical for a Nina December (-PNA).

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46 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Not a great sign when there's been no posts for almost a day.

I think we are in a fool me once shame on you full me twice shame on me mode and want to see how things evolve before getting to invested. Global ENS all seem to be agreeing we get a -EPO to start dumping cold into the West / Central US with a -NAO and somewhat less hostile PNA. It will take a cutter or two to drag some of this east but there will be cold close enough to tap. Best part is the changes are evident under the day 7-8 period while models still have reasonable skill. I could see some slop storms with systems trying to cut, hitting the block and redeveloping with this setup.

Having that trough around Hawaii usually teleconnects to some ridging in the west and a trough in the east. How long it lasts / what it morphs into is way beyond my skill but if this comes to fruition we should see storms with at least some frozen popping up soon. 

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_31.thumb.png.e01d71d66b04609c1fea4eca026982e4.png

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Well, we have a massive -EPO showing up within the 7-10 day range now.  I have a friend that lives in Alaska and she got two feet of snow yesterday, and usually downstream that's bad news for us (at present).  Obviously, we haven't had much winter weather.  But the Alaskan Ridge can change things.

Question is whether we can shake that -PNA this month.  A big ask, I suppose.  Even closer to neutral is better.  Very end of Euro (200+ hours) is setting something up, but the GFS looks even a little better maybe.  We'll see whether these looks hold into next week.

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We shall see if something like this comes to fruition but EPS is showing a -EPO, -NAO/AO and the PNA not as positive. Now of course we have seen this how the pattern is slow to change but it seems like guidance is starting to like the idea of it actually happening.

 

5PSHD1l.jpg

 

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48 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

But the fact that the entire run has no snow when everything around us does is concerning.  I wouldn’t worry about hour 384, it’s every hour leading up that’s concerning, lol.

Our chances still look better than they did a day or two ago. But the only run that really gave us a good snow total was the 18z yesterday.

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That GFS 0z run was epic.  Shows the highest end possibility, although super low chance.  Up to 3' by the end.  3 storms in one week.  Record cold, below zero temps.  At least that's better than literally one run previous.

GFS 6z looks more reasonable snow wise for us Through next weekend, but with a storm that powerful the precip shield can't be right, looks way too small.  Totals, looked pretty normal I guess.  Definitely not as great, but showing potential.

Euro, still not looking too great.

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Miller Bs don't really excite me. With rhat being said we may atleast see some accumulating snow from the northern energy like the 12z shows. I just have a feeling that this will be further east with the bigger snows. Still a lot of time and big changes will happen. 

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3 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Idk 0z Euro might be best case scenario for us. We maybe need to bite the bullet and accept that east of us will get 20 for us to get 10. Regardless looks like the pattern is finally changing.

I'm fine with 10" even if east gets more.  10" is a ton for us.  I'm not fine with east getting 20" and us getting next to nothing, lol.

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