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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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12z GFS tracks the low pretty perfectly for us.  The actual precip depiction looks weird, but that can be worked out later.  Hopefully, that low placement is pretty close.  GFS, Euro and others have had that low very close or just inland of the coast.  Maybe they're on to something?
GFS OP finally caved to the Euro, CMC, and the GEFS. Even when the OP run was having a moment the last 24 hours or so the GEFS ensembles never backed down, OP finally playing catch up.

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9 minutes ago, Sandstorm94 said:

GFS OP finally caved to the Euro, CMC, and the GEFS. Even when the OP run was having a moment the last 24 hours or so the GEFS ensembles never backed down, OP finally playing catch up.

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I don't want to get my hopes up, but a couple inches is at least possible.

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3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Euro crushes us with around a foot. Don't get too excited yet. We know how these go. I fully expect this to shift back east unless block is weaker.

Yeah, looks great, but we're definitely well within the back and forth period.  Maybe come a bit more west before those east corrections start though, lol.

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41 minutes ago, TimB said:

Look up 1983. I’d take something like that. Long and short of it is this happened with no more than 1” on the ground on the front end of the Arctic blast.

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If there were an inch on the ground that's fine.  The GFS tries to do something right before Christmas, but that's too far away to expect it to happen.

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It's too early to get heavily invested, but watch that PNA spike around the 22nd/23rd of December.  With an already established -EPO and west-based -NAO block, that's the sort of thing that makes the hair on your neck stand up (if you're a winter weather nerd).

The only problem being this is an OP, off-hour model run at 250 hours.  lol.

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16 minutes ago, jwilson said:

It's too early to get heavily invested, but watch that PNA spike around the 22nd/23rd of December.  With an already established -EPO and west-based -NAO block, that's the sort of thing that makes the hair on your neck stand up (if you're a winter weather nerd).

The only problem being this is an OP, off-hour model run at 250 hours.  lol.

Yeah, we’ve seen enough great looking things past 10 days.  We know how most of the end up…

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22 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Gfs a tick better at 0z. Need this to trend some more or else it's gonna be some cold cold rain.

I guess I'm still focused on how the pattern develops after this storm. 

Always a chance but the storm has a lot going against it for us. Looks like essentially a late developing miller b with no real antecedent cold to start off. 

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7 hours ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I guess I'm still focused on how the pattern develops after this storm. 

Always a chance but the storm has a lot going against it for us. Looks like essentially a late developing miller b with no real antecedent cold to start off. 

The next storm is dead. We now turn our focus on what transpires after the storm cuts and brings in the arctic air.

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14 hours ago, Ahoff said:

If there were an inch on the ground that's fine.  The GFS tries to do something right before Christmas, but that's too far away to expect it to happen.

Would think if a major Arctic invasion were to actually occur, and it seems to pop up on a number of model runs, it would be ushered in with a small amount of snow. That seems to be fairly typical. Seems like the timing of that would coincide pretty well with Christmas if it did happen.

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57 minutes ago, TimB said:

Would think if a major Arctic invasion were to actually occur, and it seems to pop up on a number of model runs, it would be ushered in with a small amount of snow. That seems to be fairly typical. Seems like the timing of that would coincide pretty well with Christmas if it did happen.

One would think.

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Worst thing about the late week storm is the track is nearly perfect for us.  If that low tracked all the way up the coast at those positions modeled we'd be blanketed.  So, of course when we have a great low placement there's no precip on the back side.

 

Looks like we have to rely on clippers, which can be really nice events.  GFS, is liking to dissolve them as they come down though, so there's that, and there's a nice looking possibility at the very end of GFS, but of course that's so far away.  Also, the 22-23 storm kind of just went away, for now, lol.

Euro cuts the 22nd storm, gets us rain and then immediately bitter cold and no snow.  Unreal.

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5 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Worst thing about the late week storm is the track is nearly perfect for us.  If that low tracked all the way up the coast at those positions modeled we'd be blanketed.  So, of course when we have a great low placement there's no precip on the back side.

 

Looks like we have to rely on clippers, which can be really nice events.  GFS, is liking to dissolve them as they come down though, so there's that, and there's a nice looking possibility at the very end of GFS, but of course that's so far away.  Also, the 22-23 storm kind of just went away, for now, lol.

What do you mean? The NAM jackpots us for that storm. :lol::axe:

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12z GFS is on some next level sh*t for around Christmas Eve.  Obviously too far out to take seriously, but has snow plowing into us then ends as mix, lol, and a massive ice storm before that in the Deep South.  Houston drops to 18 degrees.  Then a secondary part comes through, as we go above freezing, all while most of Texas is below.  Then it drops Lake Charles, LA down to -2!

 

Absolutely wild run, that will probably be totally different on the next one, lol.  We get maybe 6-8" out of all that.

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CPC has strong cold signals for 12/18 and beyond, but...precip signal is suppression.  So, looks cold and green.

Also, the experimental severe weather risks from the CPC doesn't show any risk of heavy snow anywhere east of the Rockies in a supposedly great period (21st-25th).  So, it seems they don't see any real threat at this time.

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