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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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4 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Can’t make this up, but the weather app from Apple, has the extended forecast for next Wednesday as 31 for a high and thunderstorms, lol :rolleyes:.

we can’t win.  Picture was too big to post.

Apple bought Dark Sky and is now using that as its data source instead of TWC. It’s garbage. Here’s the pic.

845AB63A-4964-49E6-9F28-284CAFEB2A1D.jpeg

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3 hours ago, MrsH said:

I'll take B. Age takes its toll on muscles and joints and my muscles and joints don't take cold too kindly these days!

It was more a rhetorical question about how we get dry cold or wet warm during winter.  The CPC looked promising with colder and wetter but took a hard left towards colder and drier.

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26 minutes ago, TimB said:

NAM continues to be out on its ridiculous major ice storm island. I’d bank on this being nearly all, if not completely, plain rain.

I'll be honest, I'm a bit worried being up here in Butler.  But KPIT uses like 15% hope in their winter precip calculations or something so could turn out to be a bust even north of the city.

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Just now, donyewest said:

It was more a rhetorical question about how we get dry cold or wet warm during winter.  The CPC looked promising with colder and wetter but took a hard left towards colder and drier.

That's what I saw yesterday too.  Major suppression.  Hopefully we can pick up some lake snow and clipper stuff in there with those higher ratios.

If these big cold shots are supposedly coming, where are the clippers?  I thought they often accompanied cold shots?

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2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

That's what I saw yesterday too.  Major suppression.  Hopefully we can pick up some lake snow and clipper stuff in there with those higher ratios.

If these big cold shots are supposedly coming, where are the clippers?  I thought they often accompanied cold shots?

Sounds/reads like it's going to be a deep trough: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html We get all the cold but all the moisture will ride the edges.

Lake effect and clippers only way up north on the Lakes.

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6 minutes ago, donyewest said:

Sounds/reads like it's going to be a deep trough: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html We get all the cold but all the moisture will ride the edges.

Lake effect and clippers only way up north on the Lakes.

Seems even d6-10 might be trending closer to normal temps, at least with the models that ran overnight, and the push of Arctic air might be closer to Christmas. We’ll see what 12z brings.

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1 hour ago, TimB said:

NAM continues to be out on its ridiculous major ice storm island. I’d bank on this being nearly all, if not completely, plain rain.

With that low being all the way in Wisconsin WAA won't be as strong however we still lack an in place cold airmass and high to the north to replenish low level cold to offset latent heat release. Those ice maps just look at any precip that falls with surface temperatures at 32 or lower and say its ice accretion. You won't see much accretion at 31.9 with light / moderate rain. I agree, unless we really see a trend towards colder air most of what we see in Allegheny county will be rain. Still could be a dicey period as it only takes a slight glaze to cause a big problem on the roads, but a big ice storm like the NAM shows isn't happening for SWPA lowlands.

 

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41 minutes ago, TimB said:

Seems even d6-10 might be trending closer to normal temps, at least with the models that ran overnight, and the push of Arctic air might be closer to Christmas. We’ll see what 12z brings.

Dry as a bone after the storm rolls through Thursday but don't worry it looks like it may try to cut the system on 22/23!

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Just now, TimB said:

Sends near all time record lows into the desert southwest. Everything we need to know for our weather here.

Alarming and incredibly annoying even though it is only an OP run. Guidance continues to want to dump trough after trough into the west in what was supposedly our cold and active period. 

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Idk if I trust the Euro at 10 days away. Not to mention it's ensembles don't look like it at all. I agree it's tough getting excited about this period seeing as how it seems to keep getting pushed back. However I wouldn't take 10 day OP runs and run away. I guarantee it will look different at 0z. 

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1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Idk if I trust the Euro at 10 days away. Not to mention it's ensembles don't look like it at all. I agree it's tough getting excited about this period seeing as how it seems to keep getting pushed back. However I wouldn't take 10 day OP runs and run away. I guarantee it will look different at 0z. 

This is my biggest thing.  There's talk of a great pattern, but it's always 10 days away.  Or a good storm comes into the 7-10 day range and then cuts.  This week is cooler than last for sure, so maybe that's a positive step, but it seems we've take one forward and two back every day.

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2 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Idk if I trust the Euro at 10 days away. Not to mention its ensembles don't look like it at all. I agree it's tough getting excited about this period seeing as how it seems to keep getting pushed back. However I wouldn't take 10 day OP runs and run away. I guarantee it will look different at 0z. 

For the most part, I can live with that Euro run. It’s a path to victory. It shows that we can get the cold air to pour into the US somewhere and work out the details of when and where later.

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23 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Gfs has more of a look that I think will happen. It's more of a strong front that brings in heavy precip. I believe we had something similar two years ago in December. It would be enough for white Chirstmas.

Yeah, I'd take that result.  3-6" and artic cold right before and into Christmas, sign me up.

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You have to think the Euro OP run is cracked.  It shows LA dropping to 9F degrees on the 23rd.  LA's all-time cold record is 28F.  That's absurd.  The Euro just holds that energy over British Columbia before finally dropping it south.  It's a wonky evolution.

It definitely remains a period to watch.  Everything in moderation, though.  Obviously, too anomalous a cold ejection and we end up dry.  That TPV parcel can't be too strong, the same as any NAO block can't be overly aggressive.

The ridge axis position is ideal in many ways.  The question might be whether the confluence over the East counteracts that ridge and keeps the storm more south.

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