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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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This winter is over, not that it ever started. Today was our last chance.

Unless I see something that proves otherwise, the southeast ridge is a permanent fixture of our climo now and will be for years and decades to come.

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9 minutes ago, TimB said:

This winter is over, not that it ever started. Today was our last chance.

Unless I see something that proves otherwise, the southeast ridge is a permanent fixture of our climo now and will be for years and decades to come.

Set the bar low and you can never be disappointed. I see what you are doing

big-brain-point-finger-at-forehead.gif

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I really haven’t even looked or tracked this winter. The last two winters were decent, and honestly came with a few bigger storms which was a nice change in comparison to a long time where we couldn’t even get a warning level event.

 

that said, it sure feels like we don’t even get the overrunning events where we start with multiple hours before torching, even if means a sloppy mess of snow and ice. It seems now everything just turns to liquid really fast. And if we are forecasted all snow most of the time it ends in a mess

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46 minutes ago, TimB said:

Anyone remember when the first weekend of Feb was supposed to be the cold part of our pattern? This failure of a winter rolls on.

DEAE4B36-E7AE-48D4-BFF2-A4BF1DC7E110.jpeg.08ce85e8f85969b9de97c905856e1bd7.jpeg

You trusting the gfs past 5 days is doomed to fail. It could end up being 80 or 20 and heavy snow. Gotta wait to see what happens.

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Don't discount tonight and tomorrow, very well could produce more snow and feel like a real winter day vs what we got today. Cold NW flow off the lakes enhanced by a series of little waves moving through the upper trough could provide one of those nice snow globe type days were it snows on and off a good part of the day and we manage a couple inches. NAM showed a couple decent bands too, although that of course would be more of a radar / nowcast thing tomorrow. 

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Perturbed flow with various weak shortwaves is expected in the
wake of the exiting winter system that shifts towards the
northeast CONUS. The combination of vort advection within broad
upper troughing plus cold advection, varied lake enhancement,
and orographic lift will promote mostly scattered snow showers
Thursday into early Friday morning. Enough moisture is expected
to remain to have periods of decent DGZ growth that could lead
to an additional 1-2" of snow for most locations.
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Meh, too little too late unless it’s the 2-3” today should have been. Anything less than 2”, even 1.9”, tomorrow and this event is still an epic failure to me. Oh, and NWS suggests it could STILL, ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM be warm enough for rain to mix in tomorrow afternoon.

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9 minutes ago, TimB said:

Meh, too little too late unless it’s the 2-3” today should have been. Anything less than 2”, even 1.9”, tomorrow and this event is still an epic failure to me. Oh, and NWS suggests it could STILL, ON THE BACK END OF THE SYSTEM be warm enough for rain to mix in tomorrow afternoon.

I wouldn't consider what happens tomorrow even part of this event. I agree today it failed. Anecdotally once things start falling apart or conversely getting better the models are playing catch up so we tend to see "good" and "bad" busts. This one had a low ceiling all along, we know historically how these things go, and we knew yesterday it was degrading but there was still some uncertainty with placements of banding and warm air etc so we hung on to hope.  

To your other post about the SE ridge, its been a constant all winter. Its been rinse and repeat good patterns in the long range end up only being marginally better short interludes to our base state of winter. I pretty much expect the same once we get past the first week of Feb, doesn't mean we can't get lucky along the way.

If your in the hobby of tracking storms is strictly end results based, its probably not going to be a healthy experience. If you enjoy following the trends, trying to learn something new, posting obs, and can take joy from the little things while sharing constructively in the loses and triumphs with others who poses this odd obsession with frozen water crystals then you'll realize the end result may be disappointing but the ride was still worth it.

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2 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

I wouldn't consider what happens tomorrow even part of this event. I agree today it failed. Anecdotally once things start falling apart or conversely getting better the models are playing catch up so we tend to see "good" and "bad" busts. This one had a low ceiling all along, we know historically how these things go, and we knew yesterday it was degrading but there was still some uncertainty with placements of banding and warm air etc so we hung on to hope.  

To your other post about the SE ridge, its been a constant all winter. Its been rinse and repeat good patterns in the long range end up only being marginally better short interludes to our base state of winter. I pretty much expect the same once we get past the first week of Feb, doesn't mean we can't get lucky along the way.

If your in the hobby of tracking storms is strictly end results based, its probably not going to be a healthy experience. If you enjoy following the trends, trying to learn something new, posting obs, and can take joy from the little things while sharing constructively in the loses and triumphs with others who poses this odd obsession with frozen water crystals then you'll realize the end result may be disappointing but the ride was still worth it.

Big picture, that’s a good way of looking at it. This has probably been the most frustrating winter of the 21st century, and that includes 19-20. 

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6 minutes ago, Homie J said:

Any chance we end up with less than 10 inches for the winter? 

Sunday-Monday put PIT up to 10.3” so officially no, but I’m sure there are plenty of places in the county that are below 10” or maybe even below 5”.

Looks like the NWS obs for today is going to be 1.1”, so we’d be at 11.4 officially.

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The snow futility record for Pittsburgh is 8.8” in 1918-19, so we’re out of the running for that.

What we do still have a shot at is the modern snow futility record of 16.6” in 1973-74 if you don’t trust the records from over a century ago. There’s also the 17.2” in 1990-91, 21.7” in 1988-89, and 22.4” in 2019-20 to round out the list of worst winters in modern history.

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A quick calculation seems to indicate that we should finish January about +8 on temps and be in the running with 1998 for 2nd warmest January since official obs moved to the airport. Don’t think we can catch 2006.

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18z GFS proves the 12z wasn’t just a one off and still has us locked in an endless torch hellscape with cutter after cutter instead of what is supposed to be a cold pattern.

Ensemble is on board too. Next Saturday now has positive height anomalies here. Unbelievable.

3B2BB356-D947-4B6A-AC6B-E91ECA29BDA4.jpeg.dbcecd342821a75d5fb3684f8e13d619.jpeg

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27 minutes ago, TimB said:

18z GFS proves the 12z wasn’t just a one off and still has us locked in an endless torch hellscape with cutter after cutter instead of what is supposed to be a cold pattern.

Ensemble is on board too. Next Saturday now has positive height anomalies here. Unbelievable.

3B2BB356-D947-4B6A-AC6B-E91ECA29BDA4.jpeg.dbcecd342821a75d5fb3684f8e13d619.jpeg

What is also unbelievable is long range GFS, lol.  Not even worth fretting over at this point.  Within a week is worth worrying about, heck it changes within 24 hours.

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2 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

What is also unbelievable is long range GFS, lol.  Not even worth fretting over at this point.  Within a week is worth worrying about, heck it changes within 24 hours.

Once one model shows bad it’s over. Every. Single. Time. 

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1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Are you KPitts alt? You've been awfully negative lately.:huh:

Someone has to play the KPIT role. But yeah, I have no idea why this storm that we knew was going to be a fail pushed me over the edge.

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