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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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13 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Or they're more confident then some.

Trust me they're the experts and they forget more about weather than I'll ever know but every short range guidance is trending worse. I can't see how they could up the totals unless you mean they expect some back end too. I'd be absolutely shocked if we got more than an inch tomorrow. 

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The way that this winter has occurred with the western lows, I would not be surprised if several areas get hit with the WAA (especially west of the Laurels).  My area of SW PA never does well.  It seems that some of the Meso models are either dry slotting or forcing the warmth.

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1 minute ago, Rd9108 said:

Trust me they're the experts and they forget more about weather than I'll ever know but every short range guidance is trending worse. I can't see how they could up the totals unless you mean they expect some back end too. I'd be absolutely shocked if we got more than an inch tomorrow. 

They upped the totals for the KPITsnow MLK Day dry slot/mixfest of 2022 at the last minute when all the models were going the other direction and it worked out, right?

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3 hours ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Not sure if this will make any difference, but there is a boundary crossing the metro right now, which actually showed up on the NAM yesterday.

Will be curious how far south it pushes today, and then where that initial RN/SN line sets up tomorrow morning.

What does this mean in general?  I assume it doesn't mean where the actual r/s line sets up.

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4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Zone area forecast for Allegheny has less than an inch tonight and 2-4 inches tomorrow.

Again 18z 3k says zero chance of that happening. I know its not modelogy but how can you see this and think we are getting anything more than an inch or so.

wgs2dzc.png

 

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14 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Again 18z 3k says zero chance of that happening. I know its not modelogy but how can you see this and think we are getting anything more than an inch or so.

wgs2dzc.png

 

The earlier runs that had us closer to that WAA band also had the boundary between M/D line / I70, it's now up by I80 / PA NY border on the NAM.

I'll be a little disappointed if there's not a burst of heavy snow to watch but if that misses it will be less irritating in some ways to not see it all melt / wash away 2 hours later anyways.

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8 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Too negative guys. I like the trends. Some back end as well and maybe this weekend. I can see 4 or 5 inches on the ground after this weekend. :snowwindow:

Tomorrow morning may be a nice surprise. I'll take 3 inches if it falls in 3 hours. 

It's the lack of KPitt. Somebody has to make up for his negativity.

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This will definitely be a nowcast event.

The SREF plumes are down to a shade over 1" on the mean.  There are three higher outliers (4.5", 5.5", and 6.5").  If you take those away, the mean comes down to about half an inch total.  Pretty dry.

8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Interesting on the HRRR that initial finger isn't as stout but there is a sign of some extremely heavy snow right after that. 

hH4oRqD.png

 

It also depicts the surface above freezing at this hour.  Unfortunately, the HRRR doesn't show the rest of the column, but this is likely either a true mix or white rain.  If we do get a period of no precip, it will help to warm things up a little faster.

The NAM at this time shows similar surface temps and marginal 850s (Bethel Park is above freezing while Northern Allegheny is still all snow).  It is drier away from the frontogenic forcing so it makes sense to see us getting warm tongued early.

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4 minutes ago, jwilson said:

This will definitely be a nowcast event.

The SREF plumes are down to a shade over 1" on the mean.  There are three higher outliers (4.5", 5.5", and 6.5").  If you take those away, the mean comes down to about half an inch total.  Pretty dry.

It also depicts the surface above freezing at this hour.  Unfortunately, the HRRR doesn't show the rest of the column, but this is likely either a true mix or white rain.  If we do get a period of no precip, it will help to warm things up a little faster.

The NAM at this time shows similar surface temps and marginal 850s (Bethel Park is above freezing while Northern Allegheny is still all snow).  It is drier away from the frontogenic forcing so it makes sense to see us getting warm tongued early.

So in simple terms, this threat is dead. 

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Credit to MAG

I dunno if I’d call it straight-forward haha, at least the part that ultimately matters (snow on the ground).  GFS is getting good snow to the LSV and even SW PA because it focuses the preceding warm advection snowfall there instead of a thinner stripe across northern PA as the higher res short range models and the Euro have been showing. I tend to think there will be better coverage with a system like this to deliver something closer to a Euro type solution but I’m not currently buying the full GFS type scenario that has some of the best totals actually in southern PA and some of the Sus Valley. I mentioned in my post in the last page that will have to see how radar trends go tonight and how well the meso guidance is modeling it. The WAA stuff is the key part of seeing any notable accums (advisory type amounts) in southern PA. 

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1 hour ago, north pgh said:

Too negative guys. I like the trends. Some back end as well and maybe this weekend. I can see 4 or 5 inches on the ground after this weekend. :snowwindow:

Tomorrow morning may be a nice surprise. I'll take 3 inches if it falls in 3 hours. 

I think it's just setting realistic expectations vs being outright negative doom and gloomer at least to this point. Data supports it, especially city and south. That being said I'll be watching radar hoping to see the models bust and get a heavy period of snow, but I'm expecting by the time I get home from work whatever does fall will be gone.

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7 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Radiate away! I was outside and skies are crystal clear, ground freezing back up. Should help maximize whatever snow we do get.

I hate being that guy but the 0z HRRR has like no precip hitting agh County until it changes to rain.....

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