BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 minute ago, rmo09001 said: Think the band stays over southtowns long enough for that? Seems like a lot of movement (noticeably north) tomorrow, then a relatively quick hit on Sunday as it comes back down and swings through. It seems locked in place until the predawn hours. With snowfall rates of 3-5" per hour there is potential. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, Jebman said: You are getting annihilated. Wow damn near 5 FEET probably a bit inflated 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Speedskater Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 326 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS... A trough averaging 29.90 inches then lingers over Lake Erie into Saturday afternoon. A cold front should sweep southeast across the lake Saturday night into Sunday. A ridge of high pressure averaging 30.20 inches lifts to the south shore of the lake Sunday afternoon, then move east Monday into Tuesday. LEZ061-169-190315- Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border- Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border- 326 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... .TONIGHT...West winds to 30 knots becoming southwest. Snow showers with a chance of thunderstorms through the early overnight, then a chance of snow showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms late. Waves 10 to 13 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet. .SATURDAY...Southwest gales to 35 knots. A chance of snow showers early, then a slight chance of snow showers late in the morning. A slight chance of snow showers late. Waves 9 to 13 feet subsiding to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet. .SATURDAY NIGHT...Southwest gales to 35 knots becoming west. Snow showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Waves 10 to 15 feet. Waves occasionally around 19 feet. .SUNDAY...West gales to 35 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves 10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet. .SUNDAY NIGHT...West winds to 30 knots becoming southwest. Snow showers likely. Waves 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet. .MONDAY...Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers during the day, then a chance of rain showers Monday night. Waves 7 to 11 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet. .TUESDAY...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet. .WEDNESDAY...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: probably a bit inflated Maybe not... Orchard Park 54.0 in 0400 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, rmo09001 said: Maybe not... Orchard Park 54.0 in 0400 PM 11/18 Trained Spotter https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=BUF&product=PNS&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off Im in a much better spot then orchard park for this event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Im in a much better spot then orchard park for this event. ya, was suggesting OP hitting 54" is a case to be made for higher totals in Hamburg. Radar does look like it wants to keep heading south, but we'll see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Im in a much better spot then orchard park for this event. Hey buffalo just for curiosity how does this compare to the 2014 event ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 minute ago, rmo09001 said: ya, was suggesting OP hitting 54" is a case to be made for higher totals in Hamburg. Radar does look like it wants to keep heading south, but we'll see! Derby has 64” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 7 hours ago, CoastalWx said: That watertown band has been the most impressive looking. Has to be insane totals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Hamburg May catch a break for a few hours anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SunWX Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Long time reader, first time poster. Before I ask question I just want to take a moment and thank all the contributors to this forum over the years, its been a great resource for the big storms and I have learned a lot. I have a friend who was going to drive from Montreal to Pittsburgh via I-81 and I-90 on Saturday (tomorrow) and I told him no way, as he would be driving along the southern boarders of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie (the wall of the storm). My question is, he agreed to postpone traveling till Sunday (normally a 10 hour drive) so do you think the highways in those hard hit regions will be open or clear by Sunday afternoon? Personally I don't think so, but I was being optimistic if the Saturday night and Sunday morning accumulation is less than predicted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Hamburg May catch a break for a few hours anyways. Agree, based on the radar anyway. Not much backfilling on the northern edge, so Hamburg should get some relief for a while (from the heavy stuff at least). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Maybe a 3-4 hour lull then a fairly steady stream from midnight-7a before it moves up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmo09001 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 Including the cities of Orchard Park and Springville 640 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, heavy lake effect snow. Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 16 inches in the most persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. For the Winter Storm Watch, heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 inches or more possible in the most persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Derby has 64” Jackpot baby! Probably will get 80 inches total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 3 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: This stuff isn't light, be careful out there This is why I think that this event in the end may end up being more impactful than the 2014 event. You simply can't shovel this kind of stuff in these amounts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2022 Author Share Posted November 19, 2022 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 53 minutes ago, SunWX said: Long time reader, first time poster. Before I ask question I just want to take a moment and thank all the contributors to this forum over the years, its been a great resource for the big storms and I have learned a lot. I have a friend who was going to drive from Montreal to Pittsburgh via I-81 and I-90 on Saturday (tomorrow) and I told him no way, as he would be driving along the southern boarders of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie (the wall of the storm). My question is, he agreed to postpone traveling till Sunday (normally a 10 hour drive) so do you think the highways in those hard hit regions will be open or clear by Sunday afternoon? Personally I don't think so, but I was being optimistic if the Saturday night and Sunday morning accumulation is less than predicted. If your friend is taking 81, tomorrow might actually be the better day. The lake effect should be “off” both highways as it gets directed into Canada on S/SW winds. Traveling down 81 on Sunday will probably involve driving through a band somewhere, same on the 90 south of BUF. Other option is take 87 to the 90 on Sunday. EDIT: Tomorrow is definitely better for that drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2022 Author Share Posted November 19, 2022 Not sure why truck drivers think they can drive through this stuff. I was so tired at this point I just left that guy hanging lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2022 Author Share Posted November 19, 2022 The winds were really wiping near exit 57 over the bridge to the i90 thruway 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2022 Author Share Posted November 19, 2022 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2022 Author Share Posted November 19, 2022 Green grass to 5 feet of snow 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2022 Author Share Posted November 19, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Any idea of the LE? Most of the pics look like it’s closer to 10:1 than most lake effect events. Certainly not 30-40:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2022 Author Share Posted November 19, 2022 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Any idea of the LE? Most of the pics look like it’s closer to 10:1 than most lake effect events. Certainly not 30-40:1. I'd guess 1:14-1:16. Right around there. The event started out around 1:9 and now as the cold air deepens likely 1:17. Approximates. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2022 Author Share Posted November 19, 2022 66" in orchard park 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This is going to go down as one of the worst lake effect events, particularly because of the wetness of the LES in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 19, 2022 Author Share Posted November 19, 2022 Additional snowfall forecast 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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