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Historic Lake Effect Event?! 11/17-11/21


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1 minute ago, rmo09001 said:

Think the band stays over southtowns long enough for that? Seems like a lot of movement (noticeably north) tomorrow, then a relatively quick hit on Sunday as it comes back down and swings through.

It seems locked in place until the predawn hours. With snowfall rates of 3-5" per hour there is potential.

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Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
326 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie

Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough averaging 29.90 inches then lingers over Lake Erie into
Saturday afternoon. A cold front should sweep southeast across the
lake Saturday night into Sunday. A ridge of high pressure
averaging 30.20 inches lifts to the south shore of the lake Sunday
afternoon, then move east Monday into Tuesday.

LEZ061-169-190315-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-Canadian border-
326 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

.TONIGHT...West winds to 30 knots becoming southwest. Snow
showers with a chance of thunderstorms through the early
overnight, then a chance of snow showers with a slight chance of
thunderstorms late. Waves 10 to 13 feet. Waves occasionally
around 16 feet.
.SATURDAY...Southwest gales to 35 knots. A chance of snow showers
early, then a slight chance of snow showers late in the morning.
A slight chance of snow showers late. Waves 9 to 13 feet
subsiding to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 16 feet.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Southwest gales to 35 knots becoming west. Snow
showers with a chance of thunderstorms. Waves 10 to 15 feet.
Waves occasionally around 19 feet.
.SUNDAY...West gales to 35 knots. Snow showers likely. Waves
10 to 14 feet. Waves occasionally around 18 feet.
.SUNDAY NIGHT...West winds to 30 knots becoming southwest. Snow
showers likely. Waves 6 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around
13 feet.
.MONDAY...Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west and
diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain and snow showers
during the day, then a chance of rain showers Monday night. Waves
7 to 11 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around
14 feet.
.TUESDAY...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
.WEDNESDAY...Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southeast.
Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

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Long time reader, first time poster. Before I ask question I just want to take a moment and thank all the contributors to this forum over the years, its been a great resource for the big storms and I have learned a lot.

I have a friend who was going to drive from Montreal to Pittsburgh via I-81 and I-90 on Saturday (tomorrow) and I told him no way, as he would be driving along the southern boarders of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie (the wall of the storm). My question is, he agreed to postpone traveling till Sunday (normally a 10 hour drive) so do you think the highways in those hard hit regions will be open or clear by Sunday afternoon?

Personally I don't think so, but I was being optimistic if the Saturday night and Sunday morning accumulation is less than predicted.

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Including the cities of Orchard Park and Springville
640 PM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...For the Lake Effect Snow Warning, heavy lake effect snow.
  Additional snow accumulations of 8 to 16 inches in the most
  persistent lake snows. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. For the
  Winter Storm Watch, heavy lake effect snow possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 9 inches or more possible in the most
  persistent lake snows. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
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53 minutes ago, SunWX said:

Long time reader, first time poster. Before I ask question I just want to take a moment and thank all the contributors to this forum over the years, its been a great resource for the big storms and I have learned a lot.

I have a friend who was going to drive from Montreal to Pittsburgh via I-81 and I-90 on Saturday (tomorrow) and I told him no way, as he would be driving along the southern boarders of Lake Ontario and Lake Erie (the wall of the storm). My question is, he agreed to postpone traveling till Sunday (normally a 10 hour drive) so do you think the highways in those hard hit regions will be open or clear by Sunday afternoon?

Personally I don't think so, but I was being optimistic if the Saturday night and Sunday morning accumulation is less than predicted.

If your friend is taking 81, tomorrow might actually be the better day. The lake effect should be “off” both highways as it gets directed into Canada on S/SW winds. Traveling down 81 on Sunday will probably involve driving through a band somewhere, same on the 90 south of BUF. Other option is take 87 to the 90 on Sunday. 
 

EDIT: Tomorrow is definitely better for that drive. 

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