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October 2022 General Discussion


Hoosier
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2 hours ago, TheNiño said:

Getting a surprisingly decent light show over Lake Michigan right now in Racine. Very bright white lightning with lots of CG strikes. Pleasant surprise!

I heard one very low pitched rumble in the far distance.  The more active stuff will probably miss NW of here though.  These high-based cells can make for nice CG photos.

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1 hour ago, frostfern said:

I heard one very low pitched rumble in the far distance.  The more active stuff will probably miss NW of here though.  These high-based cells can make for nice CG photos.

Probably obvious to most of you here (I’m more of a lurker and no expert by any means), but since being close to the lake I’ve noticed it’s the non severe storms that create the best shows. Still ongoing as I type this, although it’s died down in intensity. I live for nights like this though. Just hours and hours of lightning.

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Storms last night brought 0.52" of rain in town, and 0.38" at the airport. Much needed for the month, as we have been a little behind. Looks like a nice batch of rain falling in the plains. Hope it stays together, and douses the region with some much needed precip, and moves into our sub.

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The very hard freeze last week, followed by heat, really accelerated the leaf change.  Before the freeze, a few of my trees and my neighbor's maple tree remained stubbornly green.  Since then, all those trees turned (as much brown as color, unfortunately), and my three trees have suddenly dropped most of their leaves.  The area oak trees have turned quickly.  It really looks like fall now.

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50 minutes ago, Baum said:

spectacular year in these parts. Best I can recall. And the peak coinciding with neat 80 degree temps on a weekend is a rare feat. Suspect they will be clogging the storm drains tommorow.

The warm and sunny weekend as we nailed the peak will be a fall moment I'll remember for years. 2020 had absolutely amazing color here, this year is a close second. Spent the whole weekend outside with the kids and watched the trees - oaks included - transform before my eyes as the weekend progressed. Leaping in leaf piles, bright colors raining down under a sunny sky. That's the good stuff.

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18 hours ago, TheNiño said:

Probably obvious to most of you here (I’m more of a lurker and no expert by any means), but since being close to the lake I’ve noticed it’s the non severe storms that create the best shows. Still ongoing as I type this, although it’s died down in intensity. I live for nights like this though. Just hours and hours of lightning.

Non-severe storms have less lightning within the cloud overall, but what lighting there is tends to be visible and dramatic.  Higher-based elevated storms have a knack for big bold CG strikes.  Monsoon storms in the desert SW are similar.  Nice big CGs from a high base.

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7 hours ago, Brian D said:

Storms last night brought 0.52" of rain in town, and 0.38" at the airport. Much needed for the month, as we have been a little behind. Looks like a nice batch of rain falling in the plains. Hope it stays together, and douses the region with some much needed precip, and moves into our sub.

Missed the rain last night here, just sprinkles and distant rumbles.  Had some decent lake effect rains over the past few weeks though.  The east side of the Lower Peninsula that missed out on the LE moisture is parched though.  Growing season mostly is over, but newly planted trees aren't going to do well in the spring if winter remains dry.

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4 hours ago, frostfern said:

Missed the rain last night here, just sprinkles and distant rumbles.  Had some decent lake effect rains over the past few weeks though.  The east side of the Lower Peninsula that missed out on the LE moisture is parched though.  Growing season mostly is over, but newly planted trees aren't going to do well in the spring if winter remains dry.

Hopefully tomorrow, some will reach there with the low moving up. The fickle nature of precip makes things interesting, to be sure.

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23 hours ago, TheNiño said:

Probably obvious to most of you here (I’m more of a lurker and no expert by any means), but since being close to the lake I’ve noticed it’s the non severe storms that create the best shows. Still ongoing as I type this, although it’s died down in intensity. I live for nights like this though. Just hours and hours of lightning.

Storms over Lake Superior can produce so much heat lightning in the summer for hours, and it so much cooler than fireworks :) 

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5 hours ago, Baum said:

^

establishing the train tracks of winter 2022/23 storms in October is also key.

Took long enough.  The month is almost over.

Your post sounds a little like a JBism anyway.  Or maybe his thing is that the weather in November is what winter will remember.

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16 hours ago, frostfern said:

Missed the rain last night here, just sprinkles and distant rumbles.  Had some decent lake effect rains over the past few weeks though.  The east side of the Lower Peninsula that missed out on the LE moisture is parched though.  Growing season mostly is over, but newly planted trees aren't going to do well in the spring if winter remains dry.

Ponds around here are 1-2 ft low - shallower ones are dried-up completely. Need a good soaker or multiple events really. But its a multi-year issue that won't be reversed by any single event or even a single season imho. Would like to start climbing out of the hole at least. DTX saying in their winter forecast that NOAA expects to remove SEMI out of the D0 conditions by 1/1/23 based on classic Nina wet pattern for our region.  

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30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Took long enough.  The month is almost over.

Your post sounds a little like a JBism anyway.  Or maybe his thing is that the weather in November is what winter will remember.

Its November that has the MUCH stronger correlation with what to expect during the following winter. October's seem to be a mixed signal month but there are some where the indication was stronger and more pronounced such as the mid-month flip in 2013. Seems the winters that want to kick into gear earlier will tip their hand in October like '89 & '00

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2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Took long enough.  The month is almost over.

Your post sounds a little like a JBism anyway.  Or maybe his thing is that the weather in November is what winter will remember.

all in jest. I never really feel a certain storm track in October or November is a harbinger of winter cyclone tracks.  Much more a pattern guy once we get later into November. Personally, would like to see a mild/dry pattern through a good part of November in hopes of change late month or early December. We're due for some weather around the holiday season.

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30 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Chicago just concluded a 4 day streak of highs 75+.  Only 4 years have had a 4 day streak of 75+ that began on 10/21 or later -- 1950, 1963, 1989, 2022.

was in Petoskey,MI last week for the snow, returned home to an 80 degree weekend. Volatility FTW.

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What is this wet stuff falling from the sky? So far, 1.10" in the tippy bucket. I am sure one of the stat geeks can tell how long it has been but I only know it has been quite a long while since the last inch plus event here. Good to settle the bean and corn dust.

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10 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Ponds around here are 1-2 ft low - shallower ones are dried-up completely. Need a good soaker or multiple events really. But its a multi-year issue that won't be reversed by any single event or even a single season imho. Would like to start climbing out of the hole at least. DTX saying in their winter forecast that NOAA expects to remove SEMI out of the D0 conditions by 1/1/23 based on classic Nina wet pattern for our region.  

Wetlands aren't looking great here either.  A lot of dirt/mud/grass in places where there'd normally be water.  December and January are not particularly wet months.  Even months with large snowfalls typically don't add up to more than 3.0" of water, and heavy rain isn't common in winter.  Really need a few 5"+ months, but that usually only happens in the spring or early Summer, if at all.  September and October are normally wet months as well, but they ended up being on the dry side.  Could have used a tropical system at some point.

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