Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,302
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    grpigweed
    Newest Member
    grpigweed
    Joined

Central PA Fall 2022


Bubbler86
 Share

Recommended Posts

27 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

for convo purposes...

GEFS.  not terrible, but WAR still hanging on down south

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_41.png

GEPS  fugetaboutit  WAR wins the war.

gem-ens_z500a_namer_42.png

 

The good pattern on the ensembles that I posted doesn’t kick in until between day 10 & 15.

Day 15 the EPS & GEFS both end looking really good, so the advertised pattern should continue beyond.

BB67E335-0E67-4E56-817B-7F1CFE0B91BD.png

9DA79C7D-32D8-470A-883A-FA5BBB208124.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

check out GFS ens. i posted them a bit ago.  I hope the king is back.  AO and NAO both look to be negative around the time you posted, so it adds some confidence that the window may be opening around that time.  PNA heading + as well, so that would promote ridging (or at least less chances of troughiness in the west).  From my view, MJO looks to be low amplitude 8/1 around that time frame, That said, nothing hostile about tellies IMO.  (Mind you thats just my take, and I dont know if any experts agree.  Maybe @MAG5035 (or anyone that has better insight) can step in to tell us what they think.

 

2nd week in Dec is going to be rockin. Just got to get there!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

The good pattern on the ensembles that I posted doesn’t kick in until between day 10 & 15.

Day 15 the EPS & GEFS both end looking really good, so the advertised pattern should continue beyond.

I just posted the 12/3 timeframe to show the different looks being advertised.

Here was my "worry" about the LR looks on the ens.  but to your point, they do look better as we go further out in time.  Hoping the tellies improve the look as we get closer.  Surely better than a shut the shades look no doubt.  

gem-ens_z500a_namer_56.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

I just posted the 12/3 timeframe to show the different looks being advertised.

Here was my "worry" about the LR looks on the ens.  but to your point, they do look better as we go further out in time.  Hoping the tellies improve the look as we get closer.  Surely better than a shut the shades look no doubt.  

gem-ens_z500a_namer_56.png

I’ll take my chances with 2 out of the 3 reliable global ensembles showing a great looking pattern.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not sure of the implications, but loop the 48 hr 500's on GFS.  just from 24 hrs ago to latest.  Not sure if that helps suppress the weekend mess at all, but it beats the hell out of what yesterday was showing at this time w/ ridging right up to canook land.  Also appears to be holding back in the SW (like the Euro was so good at)

gfs_z500a_us_9.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This 12Z GFS 850 anomaly map is a quick look at why snow here on week one of Dec does not look great right now as Blizz mentioned (for most of the East even to our North.)  Those temps are in Celsius.  Even if we get help from the Atlantic keeping Surface temps more normal, that is frying up above. 

As usual this is a prog discussion and not a forecast.  Lots of ridging over us during this time. 

image.thumb.png.7a371b4025174fa2c4dd8460b3372a33.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Wow, what a rise today.  Some stations are getting near +40 off their lows.  THV is +37 right now.   Our zones said high of 54 this AM.  They adjusted them up this afternoon. 

My low was just 34 here, so a 26 degree rise for me. There must have been some wild fluctuations in overnight lows this morning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

My low was just 34 here, so a 26 degree rise for me. There must have been some wild fluctuations in overnight lows this morning.

I had posted that map showing some areas were in the low 40's this AM while 15 miles were 20's.  The atmospheric cap did not break for some last night.  THV is at 60 and their low was 23. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The big issue I see getting into the opening week of December or so is despite the good teleconnection progs in the NAO/AO/EPO realm, the development of a pretty negative PNA in the interim is going to drive up the SE ridging. I think the evolution to this was probably a factor in losing the chance of our weekend system being anything wintry, that and the complete loss of a high pressure to the north that was a key factor in the wintry solutions several days ago. 

In contrast to last December, which also had a really negative PNA (much more negative at one point than what is currently being forecasted on model progs), we have the other teleconnections looking half decent going forward. We also have MJO influence that is currently in Phase 6, that should progress into colder phases (for NDJ) 7 and perhaps 8 eventually. I think we’ll get to where we need to for a good period of potential winter mischief, but it probably comes at some point during or more likely… after the first week of December. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...