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June 2022 General Discussion


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Both the record high and record high minimum look to be in reach for Chicago on 6/15.  The records are 95 (kind of a low number compared to surrounding days) and 78... both set in 1994.  

Records for 6/14 should be safe, but won't be too far off.

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Progged airmass aloft is pretty extraordinary as it first comes in Monday into Tuesday.  Model consensus has very warm/dry conditions aloft with a zone of 850 mb temps in the upper 20s C with even some 30C showing up at the end of the NAM.  You'll almost never see that at the longitude of the Mississippi River and when you do, it's not this early in the season.  There's some "modification" aloft as we head through Tue and Wed but still pretty anomalous.  

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Both the record high and record high minimum look to be in reach for Chicago on 6/15.  The records are 95 (kind of a low number compared to surrounding days) and 78... both set in 1994.  
Records for 6/14 should be safe, but won't be too far off.

The only one that has a shot to me is Wednesday’s record high, which as you mention is “only” 95°.
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I was looking at the RAOB records and it appears that there has never been an 850 mb temp above 25C at DVN in the first half of June.  DVN records only go back to 1995.  However, the same thing is also true at ILX, and the records for them (and their preceding ob sites) go back to 1949.  

This will be put to the test coming up.

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Let's play a game. 

Do we see a 100 degree reading at an ASOS or AWOS site in this sub east of the Mississippi River next week?

Not extremely confident, but I'll say yes.  The most likely place for me would be somewhere in southern/western IL.  Wouldn't 100% rule it out at a notorious warm spot like MDW but my guess is that a 98 or 99 peak is more likely there.

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Wednesday looks like one of those days where the mild start leads to like 90 around 10 am at ORD and you're thinking hey, is it gonna hit 100 based off of the old school "10 degrees after 10 am rule."  But then the warming slows down more than usual in the presence of an airmass aloft that doesn't really support triple digits.

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1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Wednesday looks like one of those days where the mild start leads to like 90 around 10 am at ORD and you're thinking hey, is it gonna hit 100 based off of the old school "10 degrees after 10 am rule."  But then the warming slows down more than usual in the presence of an airmass aloft that doesn't really support triple digits.

There's been some indication that clouds could co ck block max heat potenial here in western IL Wed.  Hot temps are for sure, but making it beyond the mid 90s is still in question. 

Tuesday looks like our best shot at 100 here in the QCA, although even Monday could make 97-99.  

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LOT explicity has 80+ forecast for the low at MDW/ORD Tue night-Wed morning.  That doesn't happen very often at this lead time as it usually gets raised to that on the day of (or it never gets forecasted at all).  

Whether or not the low is upper 70s or 80+, it will be a high start for Wed morning as alluded to in my previous post. 

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2 minutes ago, Torchageddon said:

I'm curious what causes that sharply negative blob near Dallas amid surrounding positive anoms.

Likely just a data error when it looks so dramatic like that.

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Let's play a game. 
Do we see a 100 degree reading at an ASOS or AWOS site in this sub east of the Mississippi River next week?
Not extremely confident, but I'll say yes.  The most likely place for me would be somewhere in southern/western IL.  Wouldn't 100% rule it out at a notorious warm spot like MDW but my guess is that a 98 or 99 peak is more likely there.

I’ll go with a peak of 96 ORD and 98 MDW for this period.

However, if any appreciable convective activity occurs across the area on Monday, I’ll knock that back to 94 ORD and 96 MDW.
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After a long stretch of where could only eek out 0.10" or so each rain episode, yesterday finally had a respectable 0.84". Looks like might be able to add some more today. I'll take whatever, going to need the moisture in the ground for what is coming up.

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1 hour ago, King James said:

Feels like today is going to over perform temp wise here in EC IL. That sun it hot and it’s very humid out.  

mostly cloudy and chilly 60's. Been that way since Thursday. Now raining. Dummy me looked at the forecast that called for a chance of an early morning shower and set up my yard for an afternoon barbecue. Should've known better.

 

358 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2022  
   
TODAY  
PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING

1021 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2022  
   
REST OF TODAY  
PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE IN THE  
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

:facepalm:

 
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48 minutes ago, Baum said:

mostly cloudy and chilly 60's. Been that way since Thursday. Now raining. Dummy me looked at the forecast that called for a chance of an early morning shower and set up my yard for an afternoon barbecue. Should've known better.

 

358 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2022  
   
TODAY  
PARTLY CLOUDY. A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE MORNING

1021 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2022  
   
REST OF TODAY  
PARTLY SUNNY. SCATTERED SHOWERS LATE IN THE  
MORNING. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.

:facepalm:

 

Best of luck for your afternoon barbecue.  Does look like it will stop raining by then.

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