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May Banter 2022


George BM
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Forecast Discussion

Thursday, August 11, 2022, 12:04PM EDT

 

An arc of heavy rain and embedded tornadic supercells associated with the warm front continues to lift northwards across northern MD. Lots of areas picked up a quick 2 to 4, even locally 5 inches of rain as it this wave of rain pushed through the region. There’s also already been a number of confirmed tornadoes with this activity. However, this is only an appetizer to what will transpire during the afternoon.

The surface low associated with the remnants of Earl is currently located near Roanoke, VA w/ a min SLP of 994mb. The arc of heavy rain and embedded tornadic supercells associated with the warm front continues to lift northwards across northern MD as the mid-level dry slot moves over the region. This dry slot is allowing for more breaks in the clouds and as a result temperatures will continue to rise into the mid to perhaps even upper 80s in spots through the afternoon. With the very high moisture content of the low-levels of the atmosphere (dewpts 77-80+F and PW near 2.25”) coupled w/ the drier and slightly cooler mid-level airmass moving in overhead this will result in MLCAPE of up to around 2500J/kg. As the surface low interacts with the strong SWT approaching from the west in will deepen through the afternoon as it moves NE through the region resulting in strong to extreme low-level shear in ahead of it across the region (effective SRH 450-650 m2/s2). The very high low-level moisture content combined with the added sunshine will result in high 0-3km CAPE of 175-225+J/kg. All of these conditions, along with 50-60kt effective bulk shear, will combine to make for an environment that is very conducive for supercells producing long-track and significant tornadoes, particularly between 1pm and 6pm. Significantly severe wind gusts are possible as well given the 70+kt 800-600mb flow. Despite the fairly warm mid-level temps (500mb temps of around -4C) ample shear aloft will allow for large hail to be a threat with these supercells.

Even outside of any storms the synoptic winds will be quite impressive w/ 35-45mph gusts. While this is just below Wind Advisory criteria, given how wet it’s been in recent days a few weak trees may still come down.

By late this evening the winds switch to westerly as the low-pressure center moves northeast allowing drier and cooler air to filter in… allowing for better conditions for cleanup to get underway.

 

"Forecaster": George BM

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3 hours ago, Chris78 said:

Caps need to get 1 in Florida this week. 

@nj2va Please tell me your not going to Saturdays home game. :lol:

I'm staying far way from the arena on Saturday, don't worry.  I got onto a Zoom meeting earlier with a colleague who is a big PIT fan.  Turned on my camera so he could see me in my Caps jersey.  :)

Surprisingly I'm not nervous going into this series like I have been in playoffs past - maybe the team will also be loose and play with something to prove.  Lets go Caps!!!!

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28 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I'm staying far way from the arena on Saturday, don't worry.  I got onto a Zoom meeting earlier with a colleague who is a big PIT fan.  Turned on my camera so he could see me in my Caps jersey.  :)

Surprisingly I'm not nervous going into this series like I have been in playoffs past - maybe the team will also be loose and play with something to prove.  Lets go Caps!!!!

Ill be there Saturday. Last playoff game I attended the caps beat the pens in game 5 the year of their Stanley Cup run

Most "experts" have Florida in 5 so we have that going for us.

 

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9 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Ill be there Saturday. Last playoff game I attended the caps beat the pens in game 5 the year of their Stanley Cup run

Most "experts" have Florida in 5 so we have that going for us.

 

I think it depends on your PP and goaltending.  If Ovie can get a PPG early on in Game 1, I think that will help WSH immensely.  Plus, if your goaltending can step up, that will help as well.  Florida had the highest goals scored average per game in the regular season (4.11)

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2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Wow.  That's early for fireflies!

Right? I was on a walk going through a wooded area that is swampy in spring. I think vernal pools and standing water are their thing. I stood there for quite a while to make sure my eyes weren't deceiving me!

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1 hour ago, Chris78 said:

Ill be there Saturday. Last playoff game I attended the caps beat the pens in game 5 the year of their Stanley Cup run

Most "experts" have Florida in 5 so we have that going for us.

 

Well, let's keep that mojo going then!

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That was a gritty win.  FL has a TON of speed and the Caps played well on D.  Need to see a lot more hits.  Being physical against the Cats is what is needed.

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Summer swim team responsibilities are ramping up hard now. Crazy that I've been meting with my co-rep for four months already, the Parents' Meeting is 10 days away, and practice starts in less than a month!

We're pretty well organized and all, but it's still already taking up a reasonable amount of my free time. Now we just need more families to register!

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1 hour ago, yoda said:

Looking at the bracket... Penguins and Capitals won't be able to meet until the Eastern Conference Finals.  We'll see who gets there lol

That would be a he'll of an Eastern conference final

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14 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Summer swim team responsibilities are ramping up hard now. Crazy that I've been meting with my co-rep for four months already, the Parents' Meeting is 10 days away, and practice starts in less than a month!

We're pretty well organized and all, but it's still already taking up a reasonable amount of my free time. Now we just need more families to register!

We filled our 4-6 rookie group in 4 days. Had to cap it. 
 

Welcome to the silly season!!

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Summer swim team responsibilities are ramping up hard now. Crazy that I've been meting with my co-rep for four months already, the Parents' Meeting is 10 days away, and practice starts in less than a month!

We're pretty well organized and all, but it's still already taking up a reasonable amount of my free time. Now we just need more families to register!

I get to be a coach in training this year for my swim team. Crazy to think the first practice is less than a month away.

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2 hours ago, H2O said:

We filled our 4-6 rookie group in 4 days. Had to cap it. 
 

Welcome to the silly season!!

Damn.

We have a Juniors group (8&U, but mostly 4s and 5s) that we cap at 15 kids per session. July session is almost full, but still plenty of slots for June.

I think a lot of families wait to register until as spring activities wind down and summer comes into full view. We're also a fairly military-heavy neighborhood, so we often get kids of military families who don't start until they move into the neighborhood in June.

There are at least 15 kids who aren't registered who we know will be signing up, but for a small team like ours it's really nerve-wracking to wait!

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

Damn.

We have a Juniors group (8&U, but mostly 4s and 5s) that we cap at 15 kids per session. July session is almost full, but still plenty of slots for June.

I think a lot of families wait to register until as spring activities wind down and summer comes into full view. We're also a fairly military-heavy neighborhood, so we often get kids of military families who don't start until they move into the neighborhood in June.

There are at least 15 kids who aren't registered who we know will be signing up, but for a small team like ours it's really nerve-wracking to wait!

How many team members does your swim team have total? 

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59 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

How many team members does your swim team have total? 

Pretty sure last year we had about 70 kids who had times in A Meets. Of those, I'd say that five or six were one-timers who we just needed to fill a lane, and there were probably another five or so mostly younger kids who never swam in an A Meet.

We're really light in certain age groups, especially 15-18 girls and 13-14 boys. Our neighborhood does skew young, as a lot more young families have been moving in during the last 5-10 years, so this makes sense, but it sucks when you get to relays and you have to just give away points because you don't have enough kids to field a relay.

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