3/12 Significant Storm Likely (Rapidly Intensifying Coastal Storm with Heavy Rain/Wind Changing to possibly significant snow inland/some snow at the coast.

[snowman19]

The new GFS looks like the NAM and RGEM. The ICON is similar for the metro area as well. We seem to be closing in on consensus: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022031018&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

[HVSnowLover]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

The new GFS looks like the NAM and RGEM. The ICON is similar for the metro area as well. We seem to be closing in on consensus: https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sn10_acc&rh=2022031018&fh=72&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=

It might not snow near NYC but I find it interesting you are conveniently leaving out the top 3 ranked models.  

[mob1]

The Euro is likely going to be wrong, it's just so much colder than most models. 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, mob1 said:

The Euro is likely going to be wrong, it's just so much colder than most models. 

It focuses on another low. It might be right.

[MJO812]

[HVSnowLover]

10 minutes ago, mob1 said:

The Euro is likely going to be wrong, it's just so much colder than most models. 

If the low is in that spot it will be that cold, it's way east of any other model right now. 

[mob1]

Not really relevant to our area, but look how deep the low gets just 24 hours later. 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

25 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Not really relevant to our area, but look how deep the low gets just 24 hours later. 

Would love to be on the coast of Labrador for that. Hurricane force sustained winds and feet of snow.

I think the precip ends just too late for the City east before the cold arrives.  

[brooklynwx99]

there has been a pretty legit trend towards a stronger TPV, which leads to lowering of the heights over the NE and a quicker cold air intrusion

tough to say if the EPS is out to lunch, but given the consistency of this trend and the lead time presented, it's hard to totally ignore it

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Not really relevant to our area, but look how deep the low gets just 24 hours later. 

Those would be record breaking low pressure values for that part of Canada.

 

 

[rorodes]

https://twitter.com/mikemasco/status/1502075536981516289?s=21

any validity to this?

[LibertyBell]

14 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those would be record breaking low pressure values for that part of Canada.

 

 

why do they get all the fun?  How come we dont see any 920 mb lows around here?

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

why do they get all the fun?  How come we dont see any 920 mb lows around here?

 

You do realize even way up there in eastern Labrador and all of New Foundland it’s going to be almost all rain. 
 

Yeah I’ll pass on that. 

[MJO812]

[HVSnowLover]

HRRRR looks like Euro, Both NAMs still warm with the main show although 3K has a second wave later in the day that brings a little snow.   

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

You do realize even way up there in eastern Labrador and all of New Foundland it’s going to be almost all rain. 
 

Yeah I’ll pass on that. 

I know but I've always wondered what causes storms to become so strong up there and why it doesn't happen down here, where our waters are warmer and the gulf stream actually passes close by.

 

[brooklynwx99]

GFS is also continuing the trend of more TPV interaction leading to a colder solution

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GFS is also continuing the trend of more TPV interaction leading to a colder solution

Gefs  is also east of 18z

[HeadInTheClouds]

[SnoSki14]

Obviously don't expect much unless you live in NW NJ but some accumulation seems likely given trends. 

[BxSnowWx37]

Interesting times ahead. I've been on the side of heavy rain to heavy snow for 3 days now. It's gd to see it keep inching closer to that snowy solution.. 

[BxSnowWx37]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Obviously don't expect much unless you live in NW NJ but some accumulation seems likely given trends. 

It's gonna snow to the coastal plain,just how much falls is the??

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

It's gonna snow to the coastal plain,just how much falls is the??

I agree

Gefs look pretty good for everyone 

[BxSnowWx37]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I agree

Gefs look pretty good for everyone 

I'd say..the ensembles look juicy surprisingly for nyc. And that's more then 50% of them..

[HeadInTheClouds]

GEFS Mean 

 

 

[BxSnowWx37]

Snowman never roots for snow when even his name sez it!!..the ultimate oxymoron!!

[BxSnowWx37]

2 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

GEFS Mean 

 

 

Looks gd. I'd take 4 to 6 in this setup..

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, BxSnowWx37 said:

Snowman never roots for snow when even his name sez it!!..the ultimate oxymoron!!

Hes annoying 

[HeadInTheClouds]

UKIE

 

[BxSnowWx37]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Hes annoying 

Every classroom needs a class clown,snowman is him.