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Potential large EC storm/Heavy LES March 11-13th


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I just cleared off my wife's car (she has to work today...tax firm) and there was about 5 inches on it already. Ironically, it was one of the the fluffiest and easiest cleans of the winter. In March. Only a very tiny sliver on the bottom seemed wetter. The transition from wet snow to REAL snow must have happened quite quickly with the front. Beautiful out there!

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3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

About 2” at Brantingham. Snow ridge is reporting 4” at 7 am. That snow minima over Lewis county was for real… :(

Downsloping off the Dacks? I live on a hill. You should have come here and gone skiing at THM mountain. Working towards 6 inches. B)

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5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Downsloping off the Dacks? I live on a hill. You should have come here and gone skiing at THM mountain. Working towards 6 inches. B)

Yeah. This area doesn’t do great with these sliders. Skiing should be great. It’s the only time that more is not always better. Skiing in more than 6” gets tough. Gets pushed into enormous moguls that are tough to navigate. My favorite is the day after a snow, once they’ve groomed it

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9 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Yeah. This area doesn’t do great with these sliders. Skiing should be great. It’s the only time that more is not always better. Skiing in more than 6” gets tough. Gets pushed into enormous moguls that are tough to navigate. My favorite is the day after a snow, once they’ve groomed it

With just a light snow falling to put a fresh little layer on top. That's how I liked it when doing cross country skiing.

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31 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I just cleared off my wife's car (she has to work today...tax firm) and there was about 5 inches on it already. Ironically, it was one of the the fluffiest and easiest cleans of the winter. In March. Only a very tiny sliver on the bottom seemed wetter. The transition from wet snow to REAL snow must have happened quite quickly with the front. Beautiful out there!

I don’t know how you always get a couple inches more than me even though you’re only 15 miles west of me?  I just measured 3.2 inches here and snowing lightly. The back edge is rapidly approaching from the west. 

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4 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

I don’t know how you always get a couple inches more than me even though you’re only 15 miles west of me?  I just measured 3.2 inches here and snowing lightly. The back edge is rapidly approaching from the west. 

It's been dumping all morning here. The models did show western Onondaga getting a couple more inches than Northeastern Onondaga. I disregarded it as them being dumb, but maybe there was some merit to that? I think you guys up there get skunked by downsloping since you're closer to the Tug. I also have noticed you seem to record less in Synoptic events.

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10 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

I don’t know how you always get a couple inches more than me even though you’re only 15 miles west of me?  I just measured 3.2 inches here and snowing lightly. The back edge is rapidly approaching from the west. 

We are probably near 4" here.  Getting to 6 may be a struggle...

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8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Here's a picture just to show where I 'm at (definitely more than 3 inches):

 

IMG_20220312_093156573.jpg

Nice. I’m not questioning your measurement only wondering out loud if I’m in some kind of snow hole. 

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Just now, CNY_WX said:

Nice. I’m not questioning your measurement only wondering out loud if I’m in some kind of snow hole. 

When it comes to synoptic events, I think my area, being closer to the higher elevations to the south helps. The Baldwinsville/Van Buren area has some 550 to 700 foot hills. I notice my location, at 570 feet, can do better than the village. I often have more..

The farther south you go in Western Onondaga, the better it can be during Synoptic events. I get more than you and Syrmax, but our friend just north of Skaneateles does better than me. Western Onondaga county is pretty hilly, and it wouldn't surprise me that there is some orographic influence. Your area is very flat, and like I said, perhaps gets lots of downsloping from the Tug.

I also think my location farther to the west helps me to get additional enhancement off the lake.  It has been moderate to heavy snowfall all morning. Really coming down right now. Hoping for some back building of precipitation.

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37 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

It’s a microclimate event. Snow ridge is at 5” and here in the valley near Lowville it appears as if they’ve barely had more than 1”. Eeek

Where are you at? I’m 3 miles east of lowville and I got about 2.5 so far. 

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1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

Pioneer restaurant. I’m just eyeballing but doesn’t look like more than 1.5-2”. Brantingham has closer to 3 or 4”. I was under the pines. But definitely feels anemic. 

Yea models showed the butt crack formation well here in the valley 

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We did have a forecast of up to 10" here about a day or so ago.  Sitting on maybe 4"...and the snow has lightened up. Maybe the "backside" lake enhanced snow will inch us closer but right now....kind of feels like a bust, here. Although model trends showed this.

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20 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Hopefully Lake effect helps us to get above Buffwx's total. Haha. He has jackpotted in like every event this year.

I actually haven't jack potted once this year in WNY. The big synoptic storm featured highest totals north of me, same with the big LES event. The other 2-3 LES/enhanced events had highest totals south of here. The last 2 events the jackpots were pretty close. I think we jack potted last night though, based on radar. 

In comparison to central NY, western NY has jack potted quite a bit this year. 

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