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Potential large EC storm/Heavy LES March 11-13th


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10 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I'm supposed to be in Vermont this weekend, do I cancel the trip and stay here to ride local?  Tough decisions needed in very short order.  

That is a tough one. Wait until the very last second to get more model runs in.

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2 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I feel like this year the big storms have been modeled well in advance. This is only 4 days out. If the models are keying in now it’s just about the track now.

I don't think all the pieces are onshore yet so sampling is a bit variable still.

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39 minutes ago, vortmax said:

That is a tough one. Wait until the very last second to get more model runs in.

I actually am very fortunate to have the luxury of doing this.  A group of friends from Boston are renting a house up there and I'm just a late add on that can either come or go (Doesn't change anything either way).  I'll be making a game time decision Wed/Thurs.  

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51 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I actually am very fortunate to have the luxury of doing this.  A group of friends from Boston are renting a house up there and I'm just a late add on that can either come or go (Doesn't change anything either way).  I'll be making a game time decision Wed/Thurs.  

I have a planned trip to Snow Ridge. How great would it be to in the mountains for a big one? I too would cry if I went east and it went west. Not sure I can back out…

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Slow down Matt. Don’t get your hopes too high just yet. Still lots of spread and a decent potential that this does the same thing a lot of them have done. Syracuse and points east are on a razors edge. 

 

Hey, like I've said, I call them as I see them. :) I mentioned yesterday that our best shot of a Noreaster was this upcoming weekend. The way the jetstream is setting up with that cold push of air cutting south makes this one of our best shots of the season. It's not so much relying on a high pressure to our north to squeeze in enough cold air while a system stalls over us. The models are showing this Noreaster look more today, with a very widespread snowfall. It's not as much of a narrow band. If it comes to fruition, that would be awesome. (I do understand your cautioning me though. :) )

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This feels like it’s 10 days off. It’s not. Precip could start in as little as 100 hours. I think this is a pretty high confidence event. Precip types and exact track are probably up in the air for another 48 hours. But this should be an easier forecast than we’ve had. More like the early Feb storm than the stupid sliders we’ve had. 

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13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

This feels like it’s 10 days off. It’s not. Precip could start in as little as 100 hours. I think this is a pretty high confidence event. Precip types and exact track are probably up in the air for another 48 hours. But this should be an easier forecast than we’ve had. More like the early Feb storm than the stupid sliders we’ve had. 

There you go. That's what I was talking about earlier. As you can tell, I am more positive about this event than most of the other ones this season. It's a different track than what we've seen.

My entire school community was on a high from the record warm day yesterday. I ruined it when I kept sharing that snow was possible several times this week. Muwahahahaha.....everyone here knows me as the "crazy guy who loves snow."

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