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Spring/Summer 2022 Medium/Long Range Forecast Discussion.


John1122
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I think the higher elevation mountains are going to do well this weekend. I say this because of what I just experienced. Don't think I'm crazy but when I was leaving Volkswagen at 2:35 out of nowhere an ice cold wind started whipping up. It went from dry to a pretty heavy rain shower instantly. As I was leaving in my vehicle the temp dropped to 41° on the car. The rain had some big snowflakes mixed in with it for maybe 5 minutes. As I approached the Ooltewah exit the rain stopped and within a few minutes my car thermometer had risen to 46°. I checked when I got home and I had a reading of 46.3°. I'm saying this because it was a total shock to see flakes flying in the lower elevation, even if it was for only a few minutes. It's like the sudden burst of rain had a cold core in it and the flakes were reaching the ground under an intense band of precip.

Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk

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Looks like a particularly cold pool of air over Cumberland, Fentress and NW Morgan Counties. Mid 30s there. 40 here when the shower rolled across. 

MRX now says 1/2 inch or snow here tonight and freezing rain tomorrow morning per the point forecast. I don't remember freezing rain in April before right off. 

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2 hours ago, John1122 said:

Looks like a particularly cold pool of air over Cumberland, Fentress and NW Morgan Counties. Mid 30s there. 40 here when the shower rolled across. 

MRX now says 1/2 inch or snow here tonight and freezing rain tomorrow morning per the point forecast. I don't remember freezing rain in April before right off. 

Those point forecasts are so about what I'd call childish sometimes. So unprofessional.

        Freezing rain in April with still very cold upper levels in the morning. What a joke.

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1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Those point forecasts are so about what I'd call childish sometimes. So unprofessional.

        Freezing rain in April with still very cold upper levels in the morning. What a joke.

Yeah. I don't expect freezing rain. Maybe they mean freezing drizzle from low level moisture that doesn't reach the DGZ. 

Also, coming a nice snow shower right now. Temp is 34. 

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3 hours ago, John1122 said:

They are like pop up storms.  The wind kicks up and it rips for a few minutes over a smallish area. 

Yep, that's how it looks on radar too. A little circle of heavy snow will affect part of a county and dump a quick dusting or more before weakening. Doesn't take long to melt either.

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Not sure if we are in an El Nino ENSO state quite yet, but LR modeling doesn't appear to be through with sending repetitive troughs into the eastern half of the country.  Honestly, I am starting to become a little concerned that I am going to be able to get my garden out on time.  Soil temps are going to be SLOW to warm with this pattern.  In addition, it is possible that frost may be a problem well into May.   In ten days, I have to start hardening off my tomatoes with the idea to plant them come Derby weekend.  Going to be a tight fit to get those in with the modeled cold upcoming.

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1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Not sure if we are in an El Nino ENSO state quite yet, but LR modeling doesn't appear to be through with sending repetitive troughs into the eastern half of the country.  Honestly, I am starting to become a little concerned that I am going to be able to get my garden out on time.  Soil temps are going to be SLOW to warm with this pattern.  In addition, it is possible that frost may be a problem well into May.   In ten days, I have to start hardening off my tomatoes with the idea to plant them come Derby weekend.  Going to be a tight fit to get those in with the modeled cold upcoming.

Agree. Not looking good. 

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11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Meanwhile, in Bismarck, ND...

Screen_Shot_2022-04-12_at_6.36.22_PM.png

Seriously, there are some great live shots of the blizzard on NDDOT.

https://travel.dot.nd.gov/?layers=cameras,closed-blocked,event-orange,incident-red,informational-grey,roads,travelalerts,warning-blue,warning-yellow

Yeah…Minot ND is expecting 24-30” of snow. An incredible storm. 

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2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Yeah…Minot ND is expecting 24-30” of snow. An incredible storm. 

Just read that Red Lodge, MT, (ski slopes) received 27" of snow in 24 hours.  I saw on social media that Pony, MT, received 30".  Those front range blizzards during spring are no jokes.

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23 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

And yet another strong trough amplification is showing up consistently around April 22.

I read somewhere maybe here that it’s possible to continue to have these well into May.  Which would keep severe wx season not as active for these parts but also make it feel like we went from winter straight to summer.  Though I do love 60’s for highs.  Hardly any insects & no skitters.  Fescue just loves it with rain.  My yard might be best I’ve ever seen it.  For me anytime we can delay upper 80’s & 90’s till at least June I’m good.  This has to be the most wind for a season that I ever remember.  The last 2-3 months have been windy.  

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1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

I read somewhere maybe here that it’s possible to continue to have these well into May.  Which would keep severe wx season not as active for these parts but also make it feel like we went from winter straight to summer.  Though I do love 60’s for highs.  Hardly any insects & no skitters.  Fescue just loves it with rain.  My yard might be best I’ve ever seen it.  For me anytime we can delay upper 80’s & 90’s till at least June I’m good.  This has to be the most wind for a season that I ever remember.  The last 2-3 months have been windy.  

I talked to my Dad who is in his 70s.  He said that he remembers springs during his childhood as being really windy.   Neither of us remember winds like we have had so far with the exception of maybe one year(can't remember which).  Yeah, I am good delaying the really hot weather.  This weather is not a huge deal right now, but if it were to drag into May...this could have a negative effect on farmers and gardeners in the region.  

And yes, it looks like modeling keeps trying to spin up storms/fronts which drag cooler/cold air into our region for a while.  My backyard definitely looks the best that it ever has.  That is probably true for my street(front yards) as well.

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33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I talked to my Dad who is in his 70s.  He said that he remembers springs during his childhood as being really windy.   Neither of us remember winds like we have had so far with the exception of maybe one year(can't remember which).  Yeah, I am good delaying the really hot weather.  This weather is not a huge deal right now, but if it were to drag into May...this could have a negative effect on farmers and gardeners in the region.  

And yes, it looks like modeling keeps trying to spin up storms/fronts which drag cooler/cold air into our region for a while.  My backyard definitely looks the best that it ever has.  That is probably true for my street(front yards) as well.

Glad I’m not going crazy thinking this has been a really windy period. My mom went to OR for first time a couple weeks ago.  She said it was so pretty & so green.  Locals said it’s like that all the time due to cooler & wet conditions.  That nature loves it. 

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I’m turning 34 this year. I remember March being a very windy month in my childhood. This year is the first year that it has lived up to the expectations set by my memories. We have definitely lost all of the remaining weak trees from this area. That may bode well if we actually get a legit SVR outbreak in the next month.

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On 4/14/2022 at 10:57 AM, Matthew70 said:

I read somewhere maybe here that it’s possible to continue to have these well into May.  Which would keep severe wx season not as active for these parts but also make it feel like we went from winter straight to summer.  Though I do love 60’s for highs.  Hardly any insects & no skitters.  Fescue just loves it with rain.  My yard might be best I’ve ever seen it.  For me anytime we can delay upper 80’s & 90’s till at least June I’m good.  This has to be the most wind for a season that I ever remember.  The last 2-3 months have been windy.  

I agree on being ok with highs in 60s. My grandfather always talked about the little winters here on the plateau, dogwood first I think,and woolen britches winter and whippoorwill winter and I think blackberry winter is around the end of May when blackberries are in bloom. Someone else in the thread may have mentioned this already

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Looks like more BN wx is inbound.  Going to have to get some tomato plants in the ground regardless.  Time to garden.  May is gonna be a fight to keep things growing on track.  We had extended summer last fall.  After three very summer like days, we are about to get the exact opposite for the first half of May.

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