tamarack Posted April 6, 2021 Share Posted April 6, 2021 36 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: 82 Blizzard the coldest April Blizzard ever NYC had 25° at 1 PM with S+ and 5-6 new. Nothing else in their 150+ Aprils is anything like that middle-of-day powder. They've recorded 2 storms with more snow (1875 and 1915) but they were paste bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted April 7, 2021 Share Posted April 7, 2021 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I was in the full fury of it..... Lol I had a 4 year old at the time with another on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted April 7, 2021 Author Share Posted April 7, 2021 5 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: I was in the full fury of it..... We should see who had the worst early 80s snow outfits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 20 21 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted May 5, 2021 Share Posted May 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Ginx snewx said: 20 21 Crazy this was one of the better events of the season in the lowlands up here. November 2-3, ha. Such a long time ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 On 5/4/2021 at 9:56 PM, powderfreak said: Crazy this was one of the better events of the season in the lowlands up here. November 2-3, ha. Such a long time ago. And ironically one of the better events near the coast of SNE was even earlier on 10/30. Some of the spots that got totally skunked on 2/1-2/2 had like 5" of snow on 10/30 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 6, 2021 Author Share Posted May 6, 2021 3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: And ironically one of the better events near the coast of SNE was even earlier on 10/30. Some of the spots that got totally skunked on 2/1-2/2 had like 5" of snow on 10/30 "raises hand" Powder blowing off roofs during the day on 10/30. Mangled shards of frozen ass struggling at 34F during the evening of 2/1. At the time I was just of the attitude of "well I'm due," but now that time has gone by, it just really sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 4 hours ago, CoastalWx said: "raises hand" Powder blowing off roofs during the day on 10/30. Mangled shards of frozen ass struggling at 34F during the evening of 2/1. At the time I was just of the attitude of "well I'm due," but now that time has gone by, it just really sucked. Yeah that was insane. Like temps creeping below 30F on the coast with blowing snow in October *during the day* And yeah, that Feb 1-2 storm is gonna be a real “taken to the woodshed” storm for your area as we remember it in future years. I mean, it went from like nothing to 3” of slop to 12”+ within maybe 15-20 miles? (Technically less than 5 miles if you count top of blue hill, lol) Even around here, I had almost 17” and literally 6-8 miles east had like 6-7” of total sludge. Real screwgie on/near the coast that was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 6, 2021 Share Posted May 6, 2021 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that was insane. Like temps creeping below 30F on the coast with blowing snow in October *during the day* And yeah, that Feb 1-2 storm is gonna be a real “taken to the woodshed” storm for your area as we remember it in future years. I mean, it went from like nothing to 3” of slop to 12”+ within maybe 15-20 miles? (Technically less than 5 miles if you count top of blue hill, lol) Even around here, I had almost 17” and literally 6-8 miles east had like 6-7” of total sludge. Real screwgie on/near the coast that was. Cory went insane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 Offer me some feedback, please! I ran WRF (+ some additional utilities) from 1978-02-04 to 1978-02-09 (for sh!ts and giggles) and created plots for two different grids (parent domain - d01 and 1 nested domain - d02). I added plots of temperature, wind speed, wind gusts, visibility, precipitation type, etc... and superimposed observations when applicable. The still images were looped to create a video and I added audio to, "set the mood." Since I ran a simulation on a historical blizzard, I figured the board would find it interesting. Admittedly, my video editing skills are poor... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 That is excellent. I love the old school radio broadcast in the background. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 11, 2021 Share Posted May 11, 2021 4 hours ago, MegaMike said: Offer me some feedback, please! I ran WRF (+ some additional utilities) from 1978-02-04 to 1978-02-09 (for sh!ts and giggles) and created plots for two different grids (parent domain - d01 and 1 nested domain - d02). I added plots of temperature, wind speed, wind gusts, visibility, precipitation type, etc... and superimposed observations when applicable. The still images were looped to create a video and I added audio to, "set the mood." Since I ran a simulation on a historical blizzard, I figured the board would find it interesting. Admittedly, my video editing skills are poor... This is so epic. The audio makes it and that 500mb evolution never fails to make my jaw drop. Thank you for making this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2021 Author Share Posted May 12, 2021 That’s awesome. Nice work man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 56 minutes ago, Hoth said: This is so epic. The audio makes it and that 500mb evolution never fails to make my jaw drop. Thank you for making this! I literally watched that 500mb loop at about the 7:30 mark at least 10 times. That is such an epic progression. Still haven’t seen one match ‘78 yet. Some honorable mentions with Dec ‘92, Apr ‘97, and Mar 2001 but they can’t quite match the big daddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 Just now, ORH_wxman said: I literally watched that 500mb loop at about the 7:30 mark at least 10 times. That is such an epic progression. Still haven’t seen one match ‘78 yet. Some honorable mentions with Dec ‘92, Apr ‘97, and Mar 2001 but they can’t quite match the big daddy. Yeah, it's in a league of its own. My dad commuted from Boston to Duxbury as the storm came in and he still talks about how harrowing that drive was and how utterly ferocious the storm was. That and Hurricane Donna are his two big weather memories in southeast MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, Hoth said: Yeah, it's in a league of its own. My dad commuted from Boston to Duxbury as the storm came in and he still talks about how harrowing that drive was and how utterly ferocious the storm was. That and Hurricane Donna are his two big weather memories in southeast MA. There’s still never been a winter storm that killed dozens of people while on their commute like that. All those people who died on 128 stuck while snow piled up around them. Only other commute that comes close in the past 40 years is 12/13/07...blizzard of 78 was like ‘07 except if the snow didn’t taper off that evening and just stayed heavy for another 24 hours and much higher winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted May 12, 2021 Share Posted May 12, 2021 Glad you guys enjoyed it! There were a couple things that stood out to me: 1) The visibility observations for the RI station near Providence... The station dropped to 1 mile visibility at ~1pm on Feb 6th, then down to ~0.1 miles visibility for ~12 hours afterwards lol. 2) Wind gust >70mph in Boston. This was plotted twice... These observations were taken +-5 minutes from the simulation time stamp. 3) Several hours of mix/rain from Providence to Boston. I don't believe this occurred. For the ERA20C dataset, I can run simulations from 1900 to the current day. Some datasets go back <1900, but they likely won't perform well. I plan on doing this weekly for different events in and outside of the US out of curiosity. We'll see how the older simulations pan out, but the 78' simulation evaluated relatively well. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2021 Author Share Posted May 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, MegaMike said: Glad you guys enjoyed it! There were a couple things that stood out to me: 1) The visibility observations for the RI station near Providence... The station dropped to 1 mile visibility at ~1pm on Feb 6th, then down to ~0.1 miles visibility for ~12 hours afterwards lol. 2) Wind gust >70mph in Boston. This was plotted twice... These observations were taken +-5 minutes from the simulation time stamp. 3) Several hours of mix/rain from Providence to Boston. I don't believe this occurred. For the ERA20C dataset, I can run simulations from 1900 to the current day. Some datasets go back <1900, but they likely won't perform well. I plan on doing this weekly for different events in and outside of the US out of curiosity. We'll see how the older simulations pan out, but the 78' simulation evaluated relatively well. I did hear a report of a brief change to drizzle in lighter precipitation rates in Hanson. That may have been possible, but it didn’t get N or W of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 I ran additional simulations if anyone's curious. All of them are at the following paths. Winter Storms (testing extratropical namelist options) Jan, 2005 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe_75ngrc8Y&li st=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=5 Apr, 1997 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEmCRmaUPtY&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=2 Jan, 1996 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4o1Nz9wdBw&t=136s Mar, 1993 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyZWFzDvS4k&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=3 Feb, 1978 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sm3ipMFoHoE&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd Tropical Events (testing tropical namelist options) Irene - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNhYYvrQrPc&t=252s Bob - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmbhsaFaC4k&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwrX5nzMSy4qFQbTqU9WCqha&index=1 Gloria - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60wBgKfBrHg&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwrX5nzMSy4qFQbTqU9WCqha&index=3 Freezing Rain Events (testing p-type algorithm): Dec, 2008 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNkfVaudVZ8&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwrfqeW1diEdDmR_wGGvgjZC Does anyone have any suggestions for my next 10 simulations? I'm looking for unique events. I'd like to try Hurricane Carol (1954 - test the reliability of ERA20c prior to 1985) and the Blizzard of 2013 next. Dec. 9, 2005 is really interesting too. Before any recommendation(s), I can run simulations with reasonable accuracy from 1978+ (so far) w/ERA5 and ERA20c reanalysis data. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 16, 2021 Share Posted June 16, 2021 8 hours ago, MegaMike said: I ran additional simulations if anyone's curious. All of them are at the following paths. Winter Storms (testing extratropical namelist options) Jan, 2005 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe_75ngrc8Y&li st=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=5 Apr, 1997 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEmCRmaUPtY&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=2 Jan, 1996 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4o1Nz9wdBw&t=136s Mar, 1993 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyZWFzDvS4k&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=3 Feb, 1978 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sm3ipMFoHoE&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd Tropical Events (testing tropical namelist options) Irene - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNhYYvrQrPc&t=252s Bob - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmbhsaFaC4k&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwrX5nzMSy4qFQbTqU9WCqha&index=1 Gloria - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60wBgKfBrHg&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwrX5nzMSy4qFQbTqU9WCqha&index=3 Freezing Rain Events (testing p-type algorithm): Dec, 2008 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNkfVaudVZ8&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwrfqeW1diEdDmR_wGGvgjZC Does anyone have any suggestions for my next 10 simulations? I'm looking for unique events. I'd like to try Hurricane Carol (1954 - test the reliability of ERA20c prior to 1985) and the Blizzard of 2013 next. Dec. 9, 2005 is really interesting too. Before any recommendation(s), I can run simulations with reasonable accuracy from 1978+ (so far) w/ERA5 and ERA20c reanalysis data. This is amazing love the news reports in the background. Would love to see Carol 54 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 On 5/6/2021 at 6:10 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah that was insane. Like temps creeping below 30F on the coast with blowing snow in October *during the day* And yeah, that Feb 1-2 storm is gonna be a real “taken to the woodshed” storm for your area as we remember it in future years. I mean, it went from like nothing to 3” of slop to 12”+ within maybe 15-20 miles? (Technically less than 5 miles if you count top of blue hill, lol) Even around here, I had almost 17” and literally 6-8 miles east had like 6-7” of total sludge. Real screwgie on/near the coast that was. It was horrific. We got 4" or so of slop in Somerville while Winchester, 4 miles away, received 18 inches. We moved to Concord a month later, which was just a little too late! I'll remember that pain for a while, a little like the disappointment following no flip to snow in that early March 2018 storm (back when I was even more of a weenie). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 17, 2021 Share Posted June 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Henry's Weather said: It was horrific. We got 4" or so of slop in Somerville while Winchester, 4 miles away, received 18 inches. We moved to Concord a month later, which was just a little too late! I'll remember that pain for a while, a little like the disappointment following no flip to snow in that early March 2018 storm (back when I was even more of a weenie). The 2/1/21 storm definitely had one of the bigger coast to 128 gradients we've seen in a long time. As Scott and others have said for years, it was due to happen. The moisture was pretty incredible though in that. Most of my 17" fell in like 5 or 6 hours. I think you'd have to go back to January 3-4, 2003 to find a storm with that much coast to 128 gradient. There's been plenty of other storms since then with gradients, but not from "near zero to 3-4" of slop" on the coast to over a foot in like a 10-15 mile span since that '03 storm I don't think. Oct 2011, the gradient was more between 128 and 495....and February 24, 2010 was more of an elevation dependency....between like 495 and ORH hills. Jan 17-18, 2010 was kind of similar but not the prolific amounts. Coast got mostly skunked while 128 and westward had like 5-8"....but not over a foot. Maybe I'm missing another one in there somewhere but I don't think so. You prob have to go to 2003 to find one that big between coast and 128. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 18, 2021 Author Share Posted June 18, 2021 7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: The 2/1/21 storm definitely had one of the bigger coast to 128 gradients we've seen in a long time. As Scott and others have said for years, it was due to happen. The moisture was pretty incredible though in that. Most of my 17" fell in like 5 or 6 hours. I think you'd have to go back to January 3-4, 2003 to find a storm with that much coast to 128 gradient. There's been plenty of other storms since then with gradients, but not from "near zero to 3-4" of slop" on the coast to over a foot in like a 10-15 mile span since that '03 storm I don't think. Oct 2011, the gradient was more between 128 and 495....and February 24, 2010 was more of an elevation dependency....between like 495 and ORH hills. Jan 17-18, 2010 was kind of similar but not the prolific amounts. Coast got mostly skunked while 128 and westward had like 5-8"....but not over a foot. Maybe I'm missing another one in there somewhere but I don't think so. You prob have to go to 2003 to find one that big between coast and 128. December 92 in the area just south of Boston had a big gradient. You go from a couple of inches of slop here to near a foot at base of Blue Hill. We all know my PTSD from that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 In my obsession with the blizzard of 96 and the Bridgeport report of 15.5 inches vs THE NEXT TOWN OVER FAIRFIELD reporting 27 (and of course Norwalk newspaper reporting 27) I looked at the BDR observations courtesy of the linked Ray's winter storm archive. Q. Can snowfall rate be determined by visibility? If so, what would .1, .3, .5, .8 be? 3, 2, 1, .5? If above is correct BDR would be wayyyy higher than 15. http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1996/07-Jan-96-RegionalSurfaceObservations.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted November 29, 2021 Share Posted November 29, 2021 On 6/15/2021 at 10:58 PM, MegaMike said: Winter Storms (testing extratropical namelist options) Feb, 2021 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w6rEDRbHKfY&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=1 Dec, 2020 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TPzlNIQwDQU&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=2 Jan, 2016 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EPwHomO1d_0&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=3 Nov, 2014 [Buffalo, NY LES: res = 1 km] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EM7N34JOD08&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=5 Feb, 2014 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Srkzl-RJrDA&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=4 Mar, 2013 [RI Snow Hole] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=miXICfFj_Hc&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=6 Feb, 2013 [Nemo] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BtRNuLGXwMo&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=7 Oct, 2011 [CT Utility Debacle] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c9_m21AWXI0&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=8 Jan, 2011 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d3fnnsjzCjs&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=9 Feb, 2010 [MLK Snowstorm: Retrograde] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4iCiOvRXvKA&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=10 Dec, 2010 [Boxing Day] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-wQOtn3zFs&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=11 Dec, 2007 [Boston Debacle] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zlV0vdbj0z4&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=12 Dec, 2005 [Sting Jet] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DYjl5LJCxxU&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=14 Jan, 2005 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pe_75ngrc8Y&li st=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=5 Mar, 2001 [Poorly forecasted storm] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=59-c3F3n9yk&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=16 Apr, 1997 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uEmCRmaUPtY&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=2 Jan, 1996 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J4o1Nz9wdBw&t=136s Mar, 1993 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kyZWFzDvS4k&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=3 Dec, 1992 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d8kVZZHj3ic&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=20 Feb, 1983 [Megalopolitan Blizzard] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lr2EduQdv48&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=21 Feb, 1978 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sm3ipMFoHoE&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd Jan, 1978 [dual snowstorms] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QB3d2K8ZpzA&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwp1s4oh6TRd8qm6StglCkUd&index=23 Tropical Events (testing tropical namelist options) Henri - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uBlh9UbR6Xw&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwrX5nzMSy4qFQbTqU9WCqha&index=1 Michael [SE US: res = 1 km] - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Va8YjacqWRA&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwrX5nzMSy4qFQbTqU9WCqha&index=2 Philippe - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KHbn2ARlC0A&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwrX5nzMSy4qFQbTqU9WCqha&index=4 Sandy - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynQvrIM4Qas&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwrX5nzMSy4qFQbTqU9WCqha&index=3 Irene - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GNhYYvrQrPc&t=252s 'Perfect Storm' - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISgjTwDMnB0&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwrX5nzMSy4qFQbTqU9WCqha&index=6 Bob - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FmbhsaFaC4k&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwrX5nzMSy4qFQbTqU9WCqha&index=1 Gloria - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60wBgKfBrHg&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwrX5nzMSy4qFQbTqU9WCqha&index=3 Carol - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x2rX9lIEsrI&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwrX5nzMSy4qFQbTqU9WCqha&index=9 Freezing Rain Events (testing p-type algorithm): Dec, 2008 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sNkfVaudVZ8&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwrfqeW1diEdDmR_wGGvgjZC Jan, 1998 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JJRLOrG50Pk&list=PL7uw9vTkqQwrfqeW1diEdDmR_wGGvgjZC&index=2 I added more events. When I'm running/waiting on simulations at work, I run atmospheric simulations that'd interest me. I also added radar mosaics superimposed with observations and Atlantic basin, tropical disturbance storm tracks (by year) from ~1850 to 2020. This is done solely out of personal interest. I definitely used audio from several members of this forum, if you'd like me to remove the audio from the videos, let me know :). Otherwise, if you'd like me to run an additional simulation, give me a date and I'll consider initializing one. These are strictly deterministic (WRFv4.2) simulations with additional post-processing (unified post-processor/a Python library) utilities. Despite using analysis data (not forecasted data for the IC/BC's!!!), some events performed surprisingly poor ('Nemo' and the 'Boston Debacle' snowstorm to name a few). All events were evaluated at the surface and aloft when applicable. If you'd like to view the script I use to plot or run the simulations, let me know. I automated most tasks (.py>>.ncl>>.csh). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 This is the one-year anniversary of the December 16-17th nor'easter that affected the tri-state area and New England. This storm was a major snowstorm and listed as a Cat 2 on NESIS. Snowfall ranged from 10-16" across most of CT and NYC. But the most notable thing about this storm is the huge positive bust the occurred over upper New York state, VT, and NH. Right up to the beginning of the storm many models had very low snowfall in areas that would end up receiving 2-3 feet or more. The highest totals also were reported in this area due to very high ratio snow in the deformation zone. Model trends in the 36-72hr range pushed the storm a bit closer to the coast and the eventual track would end up being inside the 40/70 benchmark. Here are some selected reports across the Northeast. The highest total reported was 44" in New York and New Hampshire. New York City (KNYC): 10.5" Newark (KEWR): 11.4" Hartford (KBDL): 12.3" Bridgeport (KBDR): 9.4" Boston (KBOS): 12.7" Worcester (KORH): 12.1" Albany (KALB): 22.9" Concord (KCON): 25.6" This was a somewhat long duration event with H5/H7 lows closing off. Precipitation began as snow at around 6PM across southern CT and slowly pushed northward. Moderate to heavy snow began a few hours later and encompassed all of Connecticut with rates approaching 3" per hour. After this initial thump pushed through a dry-slot engulfed the state as mid-levels dried out and as precipitation lightened up. Snow changed to sleet and freezing drizzle for much of the southern half of the state. The radar began to fill in again after 2-3AM and mixed precip changed back to all snow. Most of the accumulating snow ending shortly after sunrise as low pressure moved northeast. But it wasn't over yet for Connecticut. Gravity waves moved through in the early afternoon hours and dropped another quick 0.5-1.0" for many towns in southern CT. After these heavy snow showers moved through the state, accumulating snowfall would come to an end. The total duration of the storm was approximately 6PM to 1PM or 19 hours. Forecasting. Under most circumstances i would wait until approximately 2-3 days out to issue a first call on a winter weather event. However, this was the first time i would put out one 3-4 days out. Nearly all global models were very consistent with each other on a widespread 1-2 foot event and on top of that run-to-run consistency was also very high. That, coupled with the fact this was a pretty straight forward setup with plenty of cold air in place, made this an easy decision. From what I recall it was only myself and AMWX user 40/70 Benchmark that issued a map at this time lead. Because of this, a post I made on FB went viral with thousands of shares and likes in 24 hours. This was a few weeks before we launched our business, so it was just my personal Facebook account. The final call I issued was kept as-is with 12-20" for the entire state, emphasizing lower totals near the coast/SE shore and highest in the NW part of the state. This proved to be the case; however, totals were a bit lower than forecast. The state received 10-16 with 6-10" along all of the shoreline. This nor'easter ended up being one of the biggest December snowstorms on record for BDR and BDL. Locally in North Haven, it was the biggest I have witnessed since 2000 and possibly since I've been alive (Dec 30th, 2000, was close). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 16, 2021 Share Posted December 16, 2021 Nice write up 4seasons....that band up in NY and into VT?NH was one of the most ridiculous mesobands I've ever tracked. Not to be forgotten either is the anniversary of the 12/16/07 bust....mostly 2-4" amounts were forecast for SNE...and while that was fairly accurate down in southern parts...much of MA/N RI busted way positive....with 6-10" for a large area. While we didn't have dual pol CC back then, we could still see the yellows washing out near the southern MA border....this was very heavy snow too with good dendritic growth....2" per hour stuff. First image is just after 5am....and then the second image is 2 hours later....not a lot of headway made on the sleet line. Then that storm also had a crazy tight coastal front...and finally my favorite image is the sfc plot that shows sleet up in upsate NY while it's ripping snow on the Cape. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Fantastic stuff. Loved that event…but I could have been in Albany lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 5 years ago. The December 17-18th moderate snowfall. A pretty much pedestrian and forgettable event but this time of year it's worth noting and something i'd kill for right now. I'd also kill to have this great radar back and not the abortion they're currently using (RIP flash). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted December 19, 2021 Share Posted December 19, 2021 Today is the 12 year anniversay of the December 19-20th 2009 nor'easter that heavily affect eastern and southeastern southern New England. Low pressure tracked just outside the 40/70 benchmark. There was a very sharp gradient and cut-off between heavy accumulations and near nothing. In Connecticut NW CT received next to nothing while eastern and SE eastern CT accumulations approached 2 feet. Here, on the line we picked up 10-12" (estimate). Blizzard warnings went up for all of long island and southeast mass. Mostly warnings and advisories for southern New England. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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