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Feburary 2nd-4th Winter Storm Thread


John1122
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Little birdie told me Nashville knows they have a higher ice accumulation risk. They are trying to manage flash flood messaging first. I get don't confuse the public. However if there's a chance of meeting ice storm warning criteria, a WS Watch needs to be out. Advisory upgrade last-minute will make grocery stores comical tomorrow. 

And Memphis to Paducah. Nothing but pain. Cue up Mr. T / Clubber Lang gif. He just says one word to Rocky. Pain!

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1 hour ago, nrgjeff said:

Little birdie told me Nashville knows they have a higher ice accumulation risk. They are trying to manage flash flood messaging first. I get don't confuse the public. However if there's a chance of meeting ice storm warning criteria, a WS Watch needs to be out. Advisory upgrade last-minute will make grocery stores comical tomorrow. 

And Memphis to Paducah. Nothing but pain. Cue up Mr. T / Clubber Lang gif. He just says one word to Rocky. Pain!

Especially north and northwest of Nashville 

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2 hours ago, AMZ8990 said:

Under a winter weather advisory in my county.  They’re Calling for up to an inch of snow/sleet and a .10 of an inch of freezing rain.  The county bordering me is under a ice storm warning though.  Will be interesting to see how Far East the ice gets 

For travel, an inch of snow and sleet plus .10 ice, that's awful travel. 

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27 minutes ago, The unknown said:

We are gonna definitely have a situation here on our hands here in West Tennessee. Temperatures seemed to have cooled a good bit faster than expected.

They almost always get a little lower, and colder further south and east in these situations. Hopefully you don't get the 1 inch ice totals. Those just smash the power grid. 

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The winter storm is rolling across west Tennessee and Eastern Arkansas. The models, even the hi-res are struggling to keep up with the East push and depth of the cold air. Areas expected to see freezing rain are seeing more sleet. Areas forecast to see Zr/Sleet at this hour appear to be getting snow. The HRRR looks like it's trying to catch up but it's staying behind a little. 

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It looks like the Memphis area will take it hard on the chin. With that said, I'm not sure Memphis downtown area will keep temps low enough to have any issues. It seems like their UHI keeps temps just warm enough whenever temps are borderline freezing. I'm guessing people in Memphis hope this as well. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, that just seems to be the trend most of the time in that area.

Edit to add: Dyersburg looks to get hammered. I'm not sure how accurate the report is from TWC app but it's currently showing a pocket of snow over Dyersburg at 5:42 a.m. local.

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Having lived in W TN and N MS for 25 years of my life I’ve seen many cases of where the cold air just way overperforms in that area. CAD almost in a way. There are really no mtns north of the area to block it, and when the cold air comes down, it banks up against the ozarks to the west. It basically just gets funneled right down the MS river. It’s almost always a shallow, very close to the surface cold airmass. I’ve seen so many times where the NWS was playing catch up to how far south and east the cold was settling and how long it held on. If you live in that area esp. W TN and E AR you definitely need to be ready for this one!

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2 hours ago, bearman said:

Dyersburg continues to get snow any orbs ot that way?

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=210&y=61&site=meg&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=210&map_y=61

 

I would say that it isn’t snowing in Dyersburg as depicted on radar and as reported by the link you provided. The link you provided is likely from the AWOS-3PT at Dyersburg Airport which is reporting snow. Automated weather reporting systems do not always correctly report the precipitation type. My understanding also is with radars that depict snow vs. rain vs. mixed precipitation, that is not an analysis of radar data itself, but is post-treatment done with other sources such as METAR reports from automated weather reporting systems such as the AWOS-3PT at the Dyersburg Airport. 

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Found a few videos from another forum. One is a tree falling recorded by a Ring doorbell. The 2nd one is a reporter from Fox 13 in Memphis. He apologized for letting out $&@t when he was running out of his house. It's better with volume up to hear the tree crash and transformer blow.




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21 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said:

Heavy rain starting here after a several hour lull, temperature is 49, ugh ....way too warm. Hoping the cold air gets here more quickly than forecast. Any hope for that out there?

It is 56 and raining pretty good currently. I don't foresee getting any wintry precip from this storm. Which is fine if it was going to be ice.

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28 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said:

Heavy rain starting here after a several hour lull, temperature is 49, ugh ....way too warm. Hoping the cold air gets here more quickly than forecast. Any hope for that out there?

Any cold air will happen after midnight most likely. It's actually well under forecast temps here as of now. They had 57 here but its only 51. 

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