AMZ8990 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 2 hours ago, Kentucky said: 18z HRRR That would be devastating if it came to fruition. Models seem pretty dialed in on that heavy section of freezing rain accumulation though. The magnitude alone of this storm is impressive without the ice totals factored in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Flooding is going to become a major issue moving forward into spring here in the mid state. Of course 2.5”-5” of rain next 2 days will definitely lead to some issues I’m sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 18z GFS FRAM: NBM trend over the past 6 runs: Definitely a but of a SE trend, esp. with the light fzr accumulations. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Under a winter weather advisory in my county. They’re Calling for up to an inch of snow/sleet and a .10 of an inch of freezing rain. The county bordering me is under a ice storm warning though. Will be interesting to see how Far East the ice gets 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 2, 2022 Share Posted February 2, 2022 Little birdie told me Nashville knows they have a higher ice accumulation risk. They are trying to manage flash flood messaging first. I get don't confuse the public. However if there's a chance of meeting ice storm warning criteria, a WS Watch needs to be out. Advisory upgrade last-minute will make grocery stores comical tomorrow. And Memphis to Paducah. Nothing but pain. Cue up Mr. T / Clubber Lang gif. He just says one word to Rocky. Pain! 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathertree2 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 1 hour ago, nrgjeff said: Little birdie told me Nashville knows they have a higher ice accumulation risk. They are trying to manage flash flood messaging first. I get don't confuse the public. However if there's a chance of meeting ice storm warning criteria, a WS Watch needs to be out. Advisory upgrade last-minute will make grocery stores comical tomorrow. And Memphis to Paducah. Nothing but pain. Cue up Mr. T / Clubber Lang gif. He just says one word to Rocky. Pain! Especially north and northwest of Nashville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 hours ago, AMZ8990 said: Under a winter weather advisory in my county. They’re Calling for up to an inch of snow/sleet and a .10 of an inch of freezing rain. The county bordering me is under a ice storm warning though. Will be interesting to see how Far East the ice gets For travel, an inch of snow and sleet plus .10 ice, that's awful travel. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The unknown Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 We are gonna definitely have a situation here on our hands here in West Tennessee. Temperatures seemed to have cooled a good bit faster than expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 27 minutes ago, The unknown said: We are gonna definitely have a situation here on our hands here in West Tennessee. Temperatures seemed to have cooled a good bit faster than expected. They almost always get a little lower, and colder further south and east in these situations. Hopefully you don't get the 1 inch ice totals. Those just smash the power grid. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Jackson issued WWA all the way to the Tennessee/VA border. Winter Storm Warnings one tier of counties north of the border. If the cold presses just a little more south and east a lot more of Tennessee is going to need winter products. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 The latest NAM is just mean for Memphis and other areas of West Tennessee. Close to 2 inches of qpf as freezing rain. Also a good portion of Middle Tennessee and the Plateau gets .10 or more zr per the NAM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 The 0z RGEM is pretty close to the NAM over the next 36 hours as well. Devastating ice west. Light to moderate ice Plateau and Middle areas. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 Nashville issued a WWA for a big chunk of its CWA. That will likely have to be moved East if the NAM/RGem are correct. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 The winter storm is rolling across west Tennessee and Eastern Arkansas. The models, even the hi-res are struggling to keep up with the East push and depth of the cold air. Areas expected to see freezing rain are seeing more sleet. Areas forecast to see Zr/Sleet at this hour appear to be getting snow. The HRRR looks like it's trying to catch up but it's staying behind a little. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 It looks like the Memphis area will take it hard on the chin. With that said, I'm not sure Memphis downtown area will keep temps low enough to have any issues. It seems like their UHI keeps temps just warm enough whenever temps are borderline freezing. I'm guessing people in Memphis hope this as well. Someone correct me if I'm wrong, that just seems to be the trend most of the time in that area. Edit to add: Dyersburg looks to get hammered. I'm not sure how accurate the report is from TWC app but it's currently showing a pocket of snow over Dyersburg at 5:42 a.m. local.Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Having lived in W TN and N MS for 25 years of my life I’ve seen many cases of where the cold air just way overperforms in that area. CAD almost in a way. There are really no mtns north of the area to block it, and when the cold air comes down, it banks up against the ozarks to the west. It basically just gets funneled right down the MS river. It’s almost always a shallow, very close to the surface cold airmass. I’ve seen so many times where the NWS was playing catch up to how far south and east the cold was settling and how long it held on. If you live in that area esp. W TN and E AR you definitely need to be ready for this one! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 The report of snow in Dyersburg is correct. I am suprised the cold is thick enough to keep snow. https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=202&y=50&site=meg&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=202&map_y=50#.YfvBcC9OmfA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Looks like Marion Arkansas has a good bit of sleet/ice on the ground. Roads are covered with sleet. Memphis is reporting some light icing right now, 60 miles east of memphis at my place it’s just rain Right now though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Dyersburg continues to get snow any orbs ot that way? https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=210&y=61&site=meg&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=210&map_y=61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdpilot Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 2 hours ago, bearman said: Dyersburg continues to get snow any orbs ot that way? https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?x=210&y=61&site=meg&zmx=&zmy=&map_x=210&map_y=61 I would say that it isn’t snowing in Dyersburg as depicted on radar and as reported by the link you provided. The link you provided is likely from the AWOS-3PT at Dyersburg Airport which is reporting snow. Automated weather reporting systems do not always correctly report the precipitation type. My understanding also is with radars that depict snow vs. rain vs. mixed precipitation, that is not an analysis of radar data itself, but is post-treatment done with other sources such as METAR reports from automated weather reporting systems such as the AWOS-3PT at the Dyersburg Airport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Dyersburg is SLEET per correlation coefficient on radar. 11:37 am Central Time. Still true at Noon. Memphis airport is just above freezing but points north in the metro are 32 or lower and have 1/4 to 3/8 inch of ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Man I hate ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Found a few videos from another forum. One is a tree falling recorded by a Ring doorbell. The 2nd one is a reporter from Fox 13 in Memphis. He apologized for letting out $&@t when he was running out of his house. It's better with volume up to hear the tree crash and transformer blow. Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersnow888 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Heavy rain starting here after a several hour lull, temperature is 49, ugh ....way too warm. Hoping the cold air gets here more quickly than forecast. Any hope for that out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8283 El Nino Baby Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 21 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said: Heavy rain starting here after a several hour lull, temperature is 49, ugh ....way too warm. Hoping the cold air gets here more quickly than forecast. Any hope for that out there? It is 56 and raining pretty good currently. I don't foresee getting any wintry precip from this storm. Which is fine if it was going to be ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 3, 2022 Author Share Posted February 3, 2022 28 minutes ago, Wintersnow888 said: Heavy rain starting here after a several hour lull, temperature is 49, ugh ....way too warm. Hoping the cold air gets here more quickly than forecast. Any hope for that out there? Any cold air will happen after midnight most likely. It's actually well under forecast temps here as of now. They had 57 here but its only 51. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shocker0 Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 Cookeville is 41 right now and Monterey is 54. 18 degree drop in Cookeville in the last hour. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, Shocker0 said: Cookeville is 41 right now and Monterey is 54. 18 degree drop in Cookeville in the last hour. I was looking at some wunderground station in Cannon county a little while ago and one was 60 and one was 37 ! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWonderland Posted February 3, 2022 Share Posted February 3, 2022 54 degrees and raining in Oak Ridge, TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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