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2022 Atlantic Hurricane season


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Moderately interesting out 10 days.  Multiple models and their ensembles.  The lead wave tries to organize in the SW Caribbean but runs out of time, the wave after, most models run it into CA as well, but enough ensembles further North that a Yucatan system early July isn't impossible.  And late June, not impossible isn't bad.

SoYoureSayingTheresAChance.PNG

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20/40 odds now and that should only go up. The upper environment to the west, especially in the Caribbean, is highly anomalous with very little shear.

We’ll see if the current wave is able to maximize potential should the pattern materialize, but it’s one to watch. 

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Just now, Amped said:

There has not been a major Hurricane in the Atlantic basin in July since Emily 2005.      This has some potential given the track and favorable conditions shown on the GFS and Euro.

Bertha 2008 was a Cat 3.

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It’s early so it’s just speculation at this point, but we know that given how far south the wave is and the time of year, this one is unlikely to gain a lot of latitude before getting into the central Caribbean.

That said, once it gets there, the ensemble guidance today has been less aggressive with ridging. This one could be a long tracker with an eventual trip to the Gulf/SW Atlantic. It does kind of have an Elsa vibe. 

Long way to go obviously…

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1 hour ago, marsman said:

Something (to me anyway) looks interesting in the central Bahamas.

COD satellite link: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-Bahamas-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

sas.jpg

Could have been a contender, but there’s some significant shear evident on that loop (the cloud tops getting blown away).

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18 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That looks better than former PTC Two and 95L ever did lol :lol: 

Honestly though how is this not a system? Defined center, has its own moisture transport and has it's strongest winds in the NE quadrant of the "eye". If you get some sustained 40-45 that'd be enough

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16 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Honestly though how is this not a system? Defined center, has its own moisture transport and has it's strongest winds in the NE quadrant of the "eye". If you get some sustained 40-45 that'd be enough

They've designated far worse lol. 

In all seriousness though, I don't think it's unreasonable to give this some official odds, given the well defined center that seems to be staying offshore for now, persistent convection, and banding structure that seems to be developing. That said, it needs to be persistent. If it can push a little further offshore it may have a chance. 

Interesting looking at the long range radar as it looks like the original convection ejected an LLC. 

giphy.gif?cid=790b76115d9f65c3580cebf4be

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1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

What a look on the radaree11dae7988cf634057a60949366cd06.jpg

 Due to this coastal low/trough and the associated deep Atlantic moisture, I've received 4" since midnight with 3.5" of that during just midnight-3AM causing significant street flooding. This is the heaviest daily rainfall here since way back on 9/20/21, which wasn't from a tropical cyclone as that was due to converging surface flow off the Gulf and Atlantic (although moisture may have been enhanced by the remnants of Nicholas). 

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From the recent MCD

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0423
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1224 PM EDT Fri Jul 01 2022

Areas affected...Coastal Lowcountry of Georgia and South Carolina

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 011623Z - 012200Z

Summary...Coastal low pressure will bring heavy rain to the coasts
of Georgia and South Carolina through this evening. Rainfall rates
of 1-2"/hr will likely train onshore, leading to instances of
flash flooding.

Discussion...An area of low pressure is clearly evident on the
regional radar mosaic this morning as a closed swirl of
reflectivity just east of Tybee Island, GA. This circulation has
become better organized this morning along an inverted trough, and
is responsible for heavy rainfall exceeding 4 inches that fell
near Chatham, GA overnight. In the vicinity of this low, cooling
cloud tops are occurring just offshore, with a stripe of enhanced
upper diffluence noted in the GOES-E WV imagery stretching from
northern GA into eastern NC. The 12Z U/A sounding out of KCHS
measured a PW of 2.11 inches, above the 90th percentile for the
date, with a freezing level approaching 15,000 ft and a mean
700-500mb lapse rate of 5.5C/km. These together with MUCAPE around
1000 J/kg imply efficient warm rain processes, and radar-estimated
rain rates from KCLX have been over 1.5"/hr this morning.

As the low continues to move slowly northeast along the coast
through this aftn, it is likely to consolidate and at least subtly
strengthen. As this occurs, pinched flow northeast of the center
will help push the 850mb LLJ to 20 kts out of the southeast. This
will originate near the Gulf Stream, transporting the warm, more
moist and unstable air onshore, helping to resupply favorable
thermodynamics to the area through the aftn. The combination of
increasing convergence on the nose of the LLJ, any frictional
convergence near the coast, and broad upper diffluence will drive
pronounced ascent, leading to increasing coverage of showers and
thunderstorms. With the thermodynamics likely to remain extremely
favorable, this will support an intensification of rain rates
which could exceed 2"/hr at times as shown by the HREF
probabilities and HRRR sub-hourly precipitation forecasts.

The heaviest rainfall is likely along the immediate coast
northeast of the low, which could receive more than 3" of
rainfall. This is where the best training potential of these heavy
rates exists as upwind propagation vectors become increasingly
opposed to the mean flow. This indicates the likelihood for
backbuilding of cells into the offshore instability with these
subsequently training onshore. However, additional heavy rain is
likely near and just west of the low center where storm motions
will slow to less than 5 kts, while still containing impressive
rain rates. The FFG across the area is generally 2-3"/1hr and
3-4"/3hrs, which the HREF indicates has a 20-30% chance for
exceedance through late this aftn, suggesting at least isolated
flash flooding in urban areas or where the most efficient training
occurs.

While this MPD is only valid through early evening, additional
MPDs may be needed for the continued flash flood threat into
tonight as the low continues to trek up the coast.
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I love TC genesis near the coast because you can really follow things on radar.

While convection looks pretty disorganized on IR, the radar shows the apparent banding near the center, which is quite compelling IMO. It's drifting offshore too rather than moving toward the coast, meaning for now at least, there is time for additional organization. 

I haven't seen anything impressive in the way of velocities or pressure drops based on radar and buoy data, but this really just popped a few hours ago. 

RZSvAO2.png

I think this is worth some odds at 2pm. 

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27 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I love TC genesis near the coast because you can really follow things on radar.

While convection looks pretty disorganized on IR, the radar shows the apparent banding near the center, which is quite compelling IMO. It's drifting offshore too rather than moving toward the coast, meaning for now at least, there is time for additional organization. 

I haven't seen anything impressive in the way of velocities or pressure drops based on radar and buoy data, but this really just popped a few hours ago. 

RZSvAO2.png

I think this is worth some odds at 2pm. 

 Kudos for being on top of this! I'm not saying I'm expecting imminent tropical development, especially with it not too far offshore, but obviously there's plenty of moisture at multiple levels and SSTs are conducive in the area with 82-84 F. So, although conditions for development are far from ideal with areas of moderate+ shear nearby and it not being far from shore, a TD forming from this wouldn't be shocking assuming it stays offshore. It should continue moving very slowly N and then probably NE near or just offshore SC. Regardless of whether or not it becomes a TC, this is interesting to watch spin around and it has and will likely continue to be a significant wx maker in terms of heavy rainfall potential in the coastal Carolinas as it was here earlier today.

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7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Kudos for being on top of this! I'm not saying I'm expecting imminent tropical development, especially with it not too far offshore, but obviously there's plenty of moisture at multiple levels and SSTs are conducive in the area with 82-84 F. So, although conditions for development are far from ideal with areas of moderate+ shear nearby and it not being far from shore, a TD forming from this wouldn't be shocking assuming it stays offshore. It should continue moving very slowly N and then probably NE near or just offshore SC. Regardless, this is interesting to watch and it has and will likely continue to be a significant wx maker in terms of heavy rainfall potential in the coastal Carolinas as it was here earlier today.

I love this stuff, and it has been a boring start to the season so it's nice to have a close to the coast opportunity. I feel like I learn the most about the elements of TC genesis from the under the radar disturbances, even if they don't develop. 

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36 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I love this stuff, and it has been a boring start to the season so it's nice to have a close to the coast opportunity. I feel like I learn the most about the elements of TC genesis from the under the radar disturbances, even if they don't develop. 

 Being that I'm not too many miles from the coast and thus am subject to major disruption to my family and myself from strong TCs, I'm fine with them nearby as long as they stay pretty weak! 

 This is now Invest 96L by the way.

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