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Potential 1/28-1/30 2022 winter storm


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GEFS mean looked liked it both slowed down the southern energy and sped up the northern portion. But the changes are ultimately small, and even on the ensembles one run can't be considered a trend, especially with such a razor thin margin on sensible impacts.

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2 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Absolutely.  It was nice watching the NAM put on a show but it was the 84 hr NAM,  and nothing else was showing that much.... still got time but it looks like a minor-moderate event possible.

I’ll take the nice event the euro is showing and call it a day. 
 

image.thumb.png.3bbd07535d9dcc1032733ed7b58be97a.png

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I wouldn't shocked to see a double maxima, one over the western Piedmont, where banding develops and where temps are better intially. Over the eastern Piedmont could stay pretty dry waiting for the transfer and rates will have a hard time overcoming temps of 34-36 initially. And of course closer to the coast will fair better, with 3"+ for NE NC

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9 minutes ago, msuwx said:

2147097738_ECMWF_WeatherBellMaps(2).thumb.png.fd3e758c8455d69a052e4a80cb9fda38.png

So close, but phases too late. Even with the south trend yesterday, the phase hasn't worked out for us on really any of the models (except the NAM). Have to depend on banding away from the main LP to get the job done. One reason for the NAM's depiction (I believe, I'm a little out of my depth here) is enhancement due to the placement and strength of a jet streak

namconus_uv250_eus_49.png

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1 minute ago, strongwxnc said:

Thanks Matt. Looks like if that was came true, we would be looking at dusting here in the southern foothills. 

Yeah a lot of the modeling is consolidating around the idea of that nice band of snow/ snow showers working through western and central NC. 

Entirely dependent on upper levels though, so time will tell.

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