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January 28-30th Possible Nor'easter


Rjay
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18 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Not that I want this at all, but I fully anticipate the EURO caving to the GFS at 12z. If 12z EURO holds, then the 18z GFS will have to back down. We can't have one model showing a few inches for NYC and another model showing 2 feet. I just think that's looney.

It went east

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Just eyeballing it - it's probably 50 miles east with the best snows. Not terrible. Not ideal, but threat is by no means dead for big snows for the sub-forum

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1 minute ago, winterwx21 said:

Yeah, this run showing a lot less snow for NYC than last night's run. Still a decent storm on this run, but we can't like the trends.

Trend is bad

If the storm doesn't capture near us then the storm will go more east. 

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8 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

This run is more amplified than 06z.

If you don't know what you're looking at please don't comment. It just confuses everyone.

The low did jump east, hence the comments about the low jumping east so not sure the condescension is really needed. The trends are not our friend.

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

How since it was captured further south ? It's further east.

Don't worry as much about the position of the surface low. It still closed off at H5 over the Carolinas and the trough was more amplified. Both improvements in the upper air as compared to the 06z run.

Is it what we were hoping for? Have to see the surface maps first.

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21 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

Well, TBH, talking about a cold and dry pattern that no one likes is hard to get excited about; warm weather lovers and snow lovers both hate cold and dry. My hands and legs are chapped enough. But I get your point, and it is valid.

This isnt a therapy session.

It is a weather forum. weather isnt a like/dislike situation. It just is.

And the fact that we haven’t had many winter months with below normal departures in several years… That is the BIG story.

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Double barrel low

If did that at 6z but it eventually and slightly earlier seemed to favor the western low and that's when it came back and tucked a little around Long Island. If it's going to evolve with a double barrel low, that's what it's going to have to do for it to be awesome for us still.  

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Just now, snowman19 said:

The Euro definitely went east and it doesn’t look way better than the last run as some have posted

Literally nobody posted that. Somebody said it looked more amped and they probably meant at some random hour like 57 or 60 

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3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

The surface isn't nearly as important as the improvements that occurred with the trough. 

Yes but there were definitely some trends towards the GFS and all the other models to be honest with leaving some of the energy behind. Still some time for change but the possibility of a big snow event for the city on west is decreasing.

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Just now, Jt17 said:

Literally nobody posted that. Somebody said it looked more amped and they probably meant at some random hour like 57 or 60 

The trough is more amplified at 12z Saturday on the 12z run vs the 06z run. That wasn't necessarily reflected at the surface. 

This double barrel look doesn't make sense to me.

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1 hour ago, BxEngine said:

Please for the sake of everyone reading this forum and trying to spend time here and hang out and learn and kill time at work or whatever….think before you post. If youve declared the threat dead, please just move on. You arent here to convince others to switch religions, once is enough. 

100% agree.

Anyone who says the snow threat is dead and it has no chance is a fool. Does it look good, no. But, if you take the average model guidance, and shift it say 75 to 100 miles west, there would still be a major event. Averaged guidance 84 hours out is off by that amount or more a pretty reasonable % of the time. Maybe 15%? I can't say what the exact % is, but it is nowhere in the vicinity of 0%. We have just recently had a storm that moved that distance west from 84 hour guidance. So it's far from impossible. So to say there is no chance is just people doing their usual pessimistic bs, or this is their first rodeo and do not understand how these storms go/ can go

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1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Not a fan of the vort dragging it's heels in the SW more. Would like that trend to cease and desist. Northern stream looks good though. 

This was the issue with this run. We should not be writing this off in any way shape or form. 

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1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Not a fan of the vort dragging it's heels in the SW more. Would like that trend to cease and desist. Northern stream looks good though. 

Correct. if we were 12 hours out from the storm you would say we’re going to get something.

 

The fact that we are so far out and the trend is that bad is concerning

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6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Trend is bad

If the storm doesn't capture near us then the storm will go more east. 

There is no trend. You had about 4 consecutive maybe 5 consecutive runs of 20"+ snows in NYC, now one run of the Euro giving 6-10" still a very big snowfall by NYC standards. This can easily switch back. When you're comparing the Euro to the GFS you're comparing apples to oranges not apples to apples. There is no trend established yet and these models are not interacting with each other.

WX/PT

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